The United States and a Rising China Strategic and Military Implications (1999)

by Khalilzad, Zalmay M.; Shulsky, Abram N.; Byman, Daniel L.; Cliff, Roger; Orletsky, David T.

• ISBN13: 9780833027511
• ISBN10: 0833027514
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-08-17
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figure and Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xix
Glossary	xxi
Introduction	1	(2)
Determinants of Chinese National Security Behavior	3	(34)
Determinants of Policy During the ``Modernization'' Period	4	(12)
Pursuit of ``Comprehensive National Power''	4	(2)
Sovereignty Concerns	6	(2)
Regime Maintenance	8	(2)
Dissatisfaction with the Current International System	10	(2)
Other Factors that Could Affect Chinese Behavior	12	(4)
Determinants of Policy in the ``Postmodernization'' Period	16	(11)
Realist Theory	17	(3)
Chinese Historical Record	20	(5)
Imperatives of Modernization	25	(2)
What Political-Military Challenges Might China Pose?	27	(9)
Vindicating Claims to Territory or Territorial Waters	27	(4)
To Deal with a Separatist Threat	31	(1)
To Prevent the Emergence of a New Threat to China	32	(2)
To Protect Ethnic Chinese Populations or Business Interests	34	(1)
To Secure Deference from Regional States	35	(1)
Conclusion	36	(1)
China's Military Modernization	37	(26)
The PLA Today: ``Short Arms and Slow Feet''	39	(9)
Chinese Military---Strategic Strengths	39	(6)
Chinese Military---Strategic Weaknesses	45	(2)
Summing Up: The Chinese Military Challenge Today	47	(1)
Chinese Military Modernization	48	(15)
Two Avenues to Improved Capabilities	48	(2)
Chinese Military Modernization: Buying Abroad	50	(3)
Chinese Military Modernization: Building at Home	53	(4)
Other Programs	57	(2)
Summing Up: The Chinese Military in 2015	59	(4)
U.S. Policy Options	63	(26)
Current U.S. Policy Toward China: Inconsistent ``Engagement''	63	(6)
Engagement as a Policy	63	(1)
Rationale of the Engagement Policy	64	(2)
The Taiwan Issue in the Context of Engagement	66	(1)
Limitations of Engagement as a Policy	66	(1)
Criticisms of Engagement Policy	67	(2)
Containment as an Alternative Policy	69	(3)
Substance of a Containment Policy	69	(1)
The Assumptions on Which Containment Would Be Based: Realist Theory	70	(1)
Difficulties and Disadvantages of Containment	71	(1)
A ``Third Way''	72	(3)
Combining Containment with Engagement (``Congagement'')	72	(1)
Elements of Such a Policy	72	(3)
Assumptions Behind Such a Policy	75	(1)
Implications for the U.S. Armed Forces and the USAF in Particular	75	(9)
USAF Role in Shaping the Political-Military Environment	76	(1)
Warfighting Implications	77	(7)
Deterrence Implications	84	(1)
Need to Threaten High Levels of Violence	84	(1)
Characteristics of the Chinese Use of Force	85	(1)
Conclusion	85	(4)
Bibliography	89