World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability : Overview

by Goldemberg, Jose

• ISBN13: 9789211261264
• ISBN10: 9211261260
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-11-01
• Publisher: Bernan Assoc

Summary

The report discusses the linkages between energy and economic, social, environmental, and security issues, and analyses the contradictions between current patterns of use and objectives in these areas. The WEA also reviews energy resources and technology options from the point of view of sustainability including better end-use efficiency, greater reliance on renewable sources of energy, and next-generation nuclear and fossil-fuel technologies. Further, the report examines plausible scenarios for combining various options to achieve a sustainable and relatively prosperous future. The report concludes by examining policy options for producing and using energy in ways that are compatible with sustainable development.

Table of Contents

Foreword	i
Mark Malloch Brown
Nitin Desai
Gerald Doucet
Preface	iii
Jose Goldemberg
Acknowledgements	iv
Editorial board	v
Establishing institutions	vii
World Energy Assessment Overview	1	(1)
Introduction	2	(2)
Part I: Energy and major global issues	4	(8)
Part II: Energy resources and technological options	12	(6)
Part III: Are sustainable futures possible?	18	(5)
Part IV: Where do we go from here?	23	(6)
PART I. ENERGY AND MAJOR GLOBAL ISSUES
An Introduction to Energy	29	(10)
Hans-Holger Rogner
Anca Popescu
What is sustainable energy development?	31	(1)
Evolution of the energy system	31	(1)
Demand for energy services	32	(2)
Energy trade patterns and globalisation	34	(1)
Crude oil and oil products	34	(1)
Coal	35	(1)
Natural gas	35	(1)
Energy prices and taxes	35	(1)
Energy investments	36	(3)
General features	36	(1)
Capital flows	37	(2)
Energy and Social Issues	39	(22)
Amulya K.N. Reddy
Towards a new approach to energy for human uses	41	(2)
Energy and poverty in developing countries	43	(3)
Dimensions of poverty	43	(1)
The energy-poverty nexus	44	(1)
The energy ladder and household decisions about fuel choice	45	(1)
Energy strategies for alleviating poverty in developing countries	45	(1)
Energy and poverty in industrialised countries	46	(1)
Energy and women	47	(3)
Factors determining energy-women linkages	47	(2)
Specific concerns and priority areas	49	(1)
Energy for improving the position of women	50	(1)
Energy and population	50	(4)
Demographic transitions	50	(1)
Population momentum	51	(1)
The energy-population nexus	51	(1)
Rural energy consumption and population implications	52	(1)
Traditional biomass-based cooking and demographic indicators	53	(1)
Energy-population nexus at the global level	53	(1)
Energy and urbanisation	54	(3)
Urbanisation and energy linkages	54	(1)
Urbanisation and energy strategies	55	(1)
Energy to improve the urban environment	56	(1)
Energy and lifestyles	57	(1)
Energy use in the United States	57	(1)
Trends towards more energy use	58	(1)
Conclusion	58	(3)
Energy, the Environment, and Health	61	(50)
John P. Holdren
Kirk R. Smith
Household scale	65	(5)
Harvesting	66	(1)
Combustion	66	(3)
Estimated health effects	69	(1)
Greenhouse gases	69	(1)
Workplace scale	70	(3)
Biomass	70	(1)
Coal	71	(1)
Oil and gas	72	(1)
Hydropower and other renewables	72	(1)
Nuclear danger	72	(1)
Number of workers and quantitative health effects estimates	73	(1)
Community scale	73	(7)
Fuel-derived air pollution in cities of industrialised countries	74	(2)
Fuel-derived air pollution in cities of developing countries	76	(1)
Urban pollution control in the longer run	77	(1)
Hydroelectric dams	77	(3)
Nuclear power	80	(1)
Regional scale	80	(6)
Emissions and energy	81	(1)
Future emissions	81	(2)
Acid deposition	83	(1)
Tropospheric ozone	84	(1)
Suspended fine particles	85	(1)
Regional climate change	86	(1)
Global scale: Climate change from greenhouse gases	86	(9)
Consequences of greenhouse gas-induced climate change	89	(2)
Alternative energy futures and greenhouses gas emissions	91	(3)
International agreements to address global climate change	94	(1)
Cross-scale impacts	95	(6)
Environmental risk transition	95	(1)
Win-win strategies to link environmental improvements at different scales	96	(2)
Assessment methods	98	(3)
Implications for the future	101	(3)
Household scale	101	(1)
Workplace scale	101	(1)
Community scale	101	(1)
Regional scale	101	(1)
Global scale	102	(2)
Cross-scale	104	(1)
Conclusion	104	(7)
Energy Security	111	(24)
Hisham Khatib
New dimensions and challenges to energy security	113	(2)
Security of electric power supply	114	(1)
Routes to enhanced energy security	115	(1)
Energy adequacy	115	(3)
Crude oil	116	(1)
Natural gas	116	(1)
Coal	117	(1)
Nuclear energy	117	(1)
Renewables	117	(1)
The resource outlook	117	(1)
Supply security	118	(10)
Security of crude oil supply	119	(5)
Security of natural gas supply	124	(2)
Security of coal supply	126	(1)
Nuclear energy and energy security	126	(1)
Energy intensity	127	(1)
The environment and energy security	128	(1)
Markets and energy security	128	(2)
The role of the state	129	(1)
Regional cooperation and the growing importance of regional electricity grids and network energies	130	(1)
Conclusion	130	(5)
PART II. ENERGY RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS
Energy Resources	135	(38)
Hans-Holger Rogner
Definitions and units	137	(2)
Oil reserves and resources	139	(5)
Ultimately recoverable resources---the static or geologists' view	139	(3)
Available resources---the dynamic or economists' view	142	(1)
Reconciling the two views	143	(1)
Gas reserves and resources	144	(3)
Conventional gas	144	(1)
Unconventional gas	145	(2)
Coal reserves and resources	147	(3)
Current resources and reserves	147	(1)
Additional resources	148	(1)
Summary of fossil resources	148	(2)
Reserves and resources of fissile materials	150	(2)
Uranium reserves	150	(1)
Uranium resources	151	(1)
Thorium reserves and resources	152	(1)
Hydroelectric resources	152	(4)
Theoretical potential	153	(1)
Technical potential	153	(1)
Economic potential	154	(1)
Major constraints to hydroelectricity expansion	155	(1)
Biomass resources	156	(6)
Sources	156	(1)
Perceptions and problems	157	(1)
Technical potential of biomass energy plantations	157	(3)
Energy balances and biomass productivity	160	(1)
Agricultural and forestry residues and municipal waste	160	(1)
Environmental implications of biomass production	161	(1)
Environmentally motivated responses to biomass production	162	(1)
Economics	162	(1)
Solar energy resources	162	(1)
Wind energy resources	163	(2)
Geothermal energy resources	165	(1)
Ocean energy resources	165	(1)
Conclusion	166	(7)
Energy End-use Efficiency	173	(46)
Eberhard Jochem
Recent trends in energy intensity in countries and regions	175	(6)
OECD countries	175	(2)
Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States	177	(3)
Developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America	180	(1)
Potential benefits of technology transfer	181	(2)
Transition economies	182	(1)
Developing countries	182	(1)
Types of potential for increased energy efficiency	183	(1)
The economic potential of energy efficiency by region and sector	184	(16)
Western Europe	185	(2)
North America	187	(2)
Japan and Southeast Asia	189	(1)
Eastern Europe	190	(1)
Russia and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States	191	(1)
India	192	(2)
China	194	(1)
Latin America	195	(2)
Africa	197	(1)
The economic potential of energy efficiency---a systemic perspective	198	(1)
Technical and theoretical potential for rational energy use after 2020	199	(1)
Obstacles, market imperfections, and disincentives for efficient energy use	200	(5)
General obstacles	200	(3)
Target group---specific and technology-specific obstacles	203	(2)
National and international policies to exploit the economic potential of energy efficiency in end-use sectors	205	(6)
General policy measures	206	(1)
Sector- and technology-specific policy measures	207	(4)
International policy measures	211	(1)
Conclusion	211	(8)
Renewable Energy Technologies	219	(54)
Wim C. Turkenburg
Biomass energy	222	(8)
The potential of biomass energy	223	(1)
Biomass energy conversion technologies	223	(2)
Environmental impacts of biomass energy systems	225	(1)
Economics of biomass energy systems	226	(1)
Implementation issues	227	(3)
Conclusion	230	(1)
Wind energy	230	(5)
The potential of wind energy	230	(1)
Development of installed wind power	231	(1)
Technology developments	232	(1)
System aspects	232	(1)
Environmental aspects	233	(1)
Economic aspects	234	(1)
Implementation issues	234	(1)
Conclusion	235	(1)
Photovoltaic solar energy	235	(8)
Characteristics of the source	236	(1)
The potential of photovoltaic solar energy	236	(1)
Photovoltaic market developments	237	(1)
Current status and future development of photovoltaic solar cells and modules	237	(1)
System aspects	238	(1)
Environmental aspects	239	(1)
Economic aspects	240	(1)
Implementation issues	241	(1)
Space-based solar energy	242	(1)
Conclusion	243	(1)
Solar thermal electricity	243	(4)
The potential of solar thermal electricity	243	(1)
Solar thermal electricity market developments	243	(1)
Solar thermal electricity technologies	244	(2)
Economic aspects	246	(1)
Environmental and social aspects	246	(1)
Conclusion	247	(1)
Low-temperature solar energy	247	(4)
Low-temperature solar energy potential and market developments	247	(1)
Low-temperature solar energy technologies and systems	248	(2)
Implementation issues	250	(1)
Conclusion	251	(1)
Hydroelectricity	251	(4)
The potential of hydroelectricity	251	(1)
Hydroelectric technology development	251	(2)
System aspects	253	(1)
Environmental and social impacts	254	(1)
Economic and financial aspects	254	(1)
Conclusion	254	(1)
Geothermal energy	255	(3)
The potential of geothermal energy	255	(1)
Recent developments	255	(2)
Potential market developments	257	(1)
Environmental aspects	258	(1)
Conclusion	258	(1)
Marine energy technologies	258	(3)
The potential and technology of marine energy	258	(2)
Economic aspects	260	(1)
Environmental aspects	260	(1)
Implementation issues	261	(1)
Conclusion	261	(1)
System aspects	261	(3)
Trends in the energy sector	261	(1)
Characteristics of renewable energy systems	262	(1)
Electrical system design	262	(1)
Grid integration of intermittent renewables	262	(1)
Intermittent renewables and energy storage	262	(1)
Value of renewables	263	(1)
Conclusion	263	(1)
Policies and instruments	264	(3)
Cost of competing conventional energy	264	(1)
Financing and fiscal policy	264	(1)
Regulation	265	(1)
Getting new technologies started	265	(2)
Conclusion	267	(6)
Advanced Energy Supply Technologies	273	(60)
Robert H. Williams
Advanced fossil energy technologies	275	(31)
Fossil fuel supply consideration as a context for fossil energy innovation	275	(1)
Setting goals for advanced fossil energy technologies	276	(3)
Technologies and strategies for moving towards near-zero emissions	279	(23)
Other near-term advanced fossil energy technologies	302	(3)
Conclusion	305	(1)
Advanced nuclear energy technologies	306	(27)
Rationale for reconsidering the nuclear option	306	(1)
The need for advanced technologies	307	(6)
Advanced nuclear generating options for the immediate future	313	(2)
Nuclear energy for the long term	315	(2)
The outlook for addressing the challenges	317	(16)
PART III. ARE SUSTAINABLE FUTURES POSSIBLE?
Energy Scenarios	333	(34)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
What are scenarios and how are they used for energy assessments?	335	(2)
Alternative development paths and how they are reflected in scenarios	335	(1)
Energy scenarios for sustainable development	336	(1)
Brief review of the literature on energy scenarios	336	(1)
Three energy scenarios for the 21st century	337	(16)
Economic development and equity	340	(2)
Improvement of energy intensities	342	(2)
Primary energy requirements and supply	344	(4)
Technological dynamics and structural change	348	(1)
The structure of final energy requirements	348	(3)
Temporal and spatial scales of scenarios	351	(1)
The legacy of past generations	352	(1)
The role of policies	353	(1)
Implications of sustainable energy scenarios	353	(11)
RD&D trends and requirements and technological diffusion	353	(2)
Capital requirements and financing	355	(1)
Technological diffusion	356	(1)
International energy trade and security	357	(1)
Environmental issues at the local and regional scales	358	(2)
Climate change: land use and other global issues	360	(4)
Conclusion	364	(3)
Rural Energy in Developing Countries	367	(26)
Jose Goldemberg
Rungs on the energy ladder	369	(1)
Fuels in rural areas: climbing the energy ladder	370	(4)
Improved cooking stoves	371	(1)
Kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas	372	(1)
Biogas for cooking	373	(1)
Producer gas for cooking	373	(1)
Rural electrification	374	(5)
The centralised approach	374	(1)
The decentralised approach	375	(4)
Leapfrogging to new rungs on the energy ladder	379	(1)
The time horizon for technological options	379	(1)
Accelerating rural energy development	380	(1)
Integrated rural development	380	(1)
Involving rural people (particularly women) in decision-making	381	(1)
Strategies for expanding access to modern energy services	381	(1)
Strategies to make modern energy services affordable	382	(2)
Conclusion	384	(1)
Annex. Case studies of crop-residue-derived modern energy carriers in China	384	(9)
PART 4. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Energy and Economic Prosperity	393	(22)
Dennis Anderson
Energy consumption and economic well-being	395	(4)
The transition from traditional to modern energy sources	396	(1)
The benefits of service extension	397	(2)
Energy use forecasts and energy efficiency	399	(1)
Ambiguities in the evidence and shortcomings in methods	399	(1)
Energy efficiency as a beneficial stimulus to energy use	400	(1)
Reconciling increased energy consumption and environmental protection	400	(8)
Reducing local and regional pollution	401	(3)
Mitigating global warming	404	(4)
Liberalisation and globalisation	408	(1)
Conclusion: economic perspectives on policy	409	(6)
Energy Policies for Sustainable Development	415	(40)
Michael Jefferson
Policy goals and challenges	418	(5)
The findings so far	418	(1)
Defining the goals of policy	419	(1)
Responding to the challenge of widening access	420	(2)
Improving environmental acceptability	422	(1)
Making markets work better	423	(7)
Internalising externalities	423	(1)
Phasing out subsidies to conventional energy	424	(1)
Regulatory options for restructured energy sectors	425	(2)
Raising energy efficiency	427	(3)
Mobilising investments in sustainable energy	430	(3)
Attracting private capital	431	(1)
Tapping other sources of funding	432	(1)
Encouraging technological innovation for sustainable energy development	433	(5)
Understanding the energy innovation chain	434	(1)
The rationale for public policies in support of energy innovation	435	(2)
Policy options for promoting technological innovation	437	(1)
Encouraging technological innovation in developing countries	438	(3)
Opportunities for technological leadership	439	(1)
Supporting demonstration and diffusion	439	(1)
International industrial collaboration	440	(1)
Towards a supportive policy framework	440	(1)
Capacity and institution building	440	(1)
Moving towards more effective cooperation	441	(4)
Cooperative efforts to ensure supply security	442	(1)
International cooperation on climate change	443	(2)
Widening the involvement in sustainable energy development	445	(1)
Conclusion	445	(2)
Making markets work better	445	(1)
Mobilising additional investments in sustainable energy	446	(1)
Encouraging technological innovation	446	(1)
Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in developing countries	446	(1)
Encouraging greater international cooperation	446	(1)
Annex. Trends in research and development funding	447	(8)
PART 5. FURTHER INFORMATION AND REFERENCE MATERIAL
Annexes	455	(14)
Annex A. Energy units, conversion factors, and abbreviations	456	(1)
Annex B. Data consistency	457	(1)
Annex C. Energy trends	458	(9)
Annex D. Carbon emissions	467	(2)
Editorial Board Brief biographies of Editorial Board members	469	(6)
Glossary Selected terminology	475	(8)
Contributors World Energy Assessment Advisory Panel and peer reviewers	483	(6)
Index	489