2052 : A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

by Randers, Jorgen

• ISBN13: 9781603584678
• ISBN10: 1603584676
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2012-06-13
• Publisher: Chelsea Green Pub Co

Summary

Forty years ago, The Limits to Growthstudy addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline."So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the co-authors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead.The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely.So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. xi
Preface: What Will the Future Bring?	p. xiii
Background
Worrying about the Future	p. 1
Why Now?	p. 3
Is a Forecast Possible?	p. 4
Why Forty Years?	p. 6
Bases for an Educated Guess	p. 7
Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind	p. 10
Five Big Issues toward 2052	p. 11
The Sustainability Revolution	p. 12
Five Central Issues Involving System Change	p. 13
The End of Capitalism?	p. 14
Glimpse 2-1: The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization	p. 15
The End of Economic Growth?	p. 23
Glimpse 2-2: Constraining Asian Consumption	p. 23
The End of Slow Democracy?	p. 30
Glimpse 2-3: Shuffling toward Sustainability	p. 31
The End of Generational Harmony?	p. 36
Glimpse 2-4: Intergenerational War of Equity	p. 36
The End of Stable Climate?	p. 40
Glimpse 2-5: Extreme Weather in 2052	p. 43
My Global Forecast
The Logic behind My Forecast	p. 53
The Guiding Star	p. 54
A Broad-Brush Picture	p. 54
A Brief Summary of My Story	p. 55
The Deterministic Backbone	p. 56
Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze	p. 57
The Mathematical Formulation	p. 58
A Final Note on the Data Base	p. 59
Population and Consumption to 2052	p. 62
Population Will Peak	p. 62
Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier	p. 65
Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles	p. 67
Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly	p. 70
Glimpse 4-1: The End of Uneconomic Growth	p. 73
Investments-Forced and Voluntary-Will Increase	p. 78
New Costs Will Emerge	p. 81
Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode	p. 86
The State Will Get More Involved	p. 88
Glimpse 4-2: Light Green Growth	p. 90
Consumption Will Stagnate-and Fall in Some Places	p. 93
Energy and CO2 to 2052	p. 99
Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise	p. 99
Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever	p. 102
Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables	p. 103
Glimpse 5-1: The Road to PV	p. 106
Glimpse 5-2: The Death of Nuclear	p. 110
CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030	p. 116
Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C	p. 118
Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties	p. 120
Glimpse 5-3: Troubled Arctic Waters	p. 121
Glimpse 5-4: The Flight to the City	p. 125
Food and Footprint to 2052	p. 130
Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand	p. 130
Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance	p. 133
Glimpse 6-1: Expensive Oil = Expensive Food	p. 133
Glimpse 6-2: The Limits to Protein	p. 138
Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries	p. 139
Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer	p. 143
Glimpse 6-3: The Race to Lose Last	p. 144
Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge	p. 149
Glimpse 6-4: Urban Mining of Metals	p. 151
Glimpse 6-5: Nature Limited to Parks	p. 156
The Nonmaterial Future to 2052	p. 160
Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits	p. 161
Slower Growth in Productivity	p. 162
Tensions from Declining Consumption	p. 162
Prevalence of Short-Termism	p. 164
Stronger Government	p. 166
Forced Redistribution	p. 167
Megacity Environment	p. 169
Glimpse 7-1: Megacity Living and Externalization of the Mind Omnipresent Internet	p. 171
Omnipresent Internet	p. 174
Disappearing Charms	p. 175
Better Health	p. 177
Glimpse 7-2: Individual Health from Public Care	p. 178
Armed Forces Fighting New Threats	p. 181
Glimpse 7-3: The Future of War and the Rise of Robots	p. 182
Glimpse 7-4: Military for Sustainability	p. 185
The Zeitgeist in 2052	p. 190
Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions	p. 190
Glimpse 8-1: Scotland Joins New Europe	p. 191
Glimpse 8-2: The End of Mediterranean Disparity	p. 196
Glimpse 8-3: Slum Urbanism in Africa	p. 200
A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth	p. 203
Glimpse 8-4: Valuing the Whole	p. 205
Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government	p. 210
Glimpse 8-5: Systemic CSR, or CSR 2.0	p. 214
Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals	p. 218
Glimpse 8-6: Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd	p. 218
Glimpse 8-7: Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good	p. 222
Integenerational Equity: Widening the Lens	p. 226
Analysis
Reflections on the Future	p. 229
The Main Drivers	p. 229
The Future in Graphs	p. 231
The Cliff-Hanger	p. 234
My Own Reactions	p. 236
Eight Straight Questions about the Future	p. 239
Wild Cards	p. 250
The Path to 2052	p. 254
Glimpse 9-1: Sudden Rush to Solar	p. 256
Glimpse 9-2: Financing the Future	p. 260
Five Regional Futures	p. 265
Toward 2052: The United States	p. 266
Glimpse 10-1: Bright Solar Future	p. 270
Toward 2052: China	p. 274
Glimpse 10-2: China-the New Hegemon	p. 274
Toward 2052: OECD-less-US	p. 283
Toward 2052: Brise	p. 288
Glimpse 10-3: Rich on Biofuels	p. 292
Toward 2052: Rest of the World	p. 296
Comparison with Other Futures	p. 300
Testing against a Global Computer Model	p. 300
Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies	p. 301
Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail	p. 307
Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century	p. 313
Glimpse 11-1: The Fifth Cultural Step	p. 314
Glimpse 11-2: The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life	p. 318
What Should You Do?	p. 323
What Global Society Ideally Should Have Done	p. 325
Twenty Pieces of Personal Advice	p. 328
Learn to Live with Impending Disaster without Losing Hope	p. 351
Closing Words	p. 353
Appendices	p. 354
Summary	p. 354
Definitions and Data Sources	p. 356
Further Reading for the 2052 Glimpses	p. 359
Extra Data on Fertility and Productivity	p. 366
Notes	p. 368
Index	p. 377
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