Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

by Lawrence; Geurts; Guerard Jr

• ISBN13: 9780762304370
• ISBN10: 0762304375
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-08-15
• Publisher: Elsevier Science & Technology

Summary

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making (an accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making). It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications- and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgementally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accurate and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors	vii
Editorial Board	ix
PART 1. TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING
Integrating Online and Offline Data to Forecast Truck Arrivals at a Marine Container Terminal	3	(18)
Alexios C. Sideris
Lazar N. Spasovic
Estimating Airline Demand from Censored Data	21	(16)
Richard H. Zeni
Development of a Rail Freight Flow Prediction Model	37	(10)
Gary Kleinman
Kenneth D. Lawrence
PART 2. FORECASTING ACCURACY AND METHODS
Obtaining a Seasonal Index for Forecasting When the Data Contain a Trend	47	(18)
Peter T. Ittig
How to Make Accurate Market Share Forecasts with Structural Response Models	65	(8)
David Whitlark
Michael D. Geurts
What to Do When Sales Forecasts are not Accurate Enough	73	(12)
Michael D. Geurts
The Relationship between Accuracy and Expenditures In Forecasting	85	(8)
Michael D. Geurts
David Whitlark
Forecast Model Selection: Genetic Algorithm Neural Network (Gann) Approach	93	(20)
Murugan Anandarajan
Bay Arinze
Asokan Anandarajan
Kenneth D. Lawrence
Forecasting Practices of Mba's	113	(12)
Harold Rahmlow
Ronald Klimberg
Forecasting by Arima Methods: A Comparison of Integer and Fractionally Differenced Models	125	(20)
Shaw Chen
Jeffrey Jarrett
Bonne K. Ray
PART 3. Forecasting Applications
Regression Forecast Modelling: A Case Study	145	(10)
A. Noel Doherty
F. Victor Lu
Managing to Retain Sales Forecasters	155	(6)
Michael D. Geurts
Consistent Judgemental Directional Probability Exchange Rate Predictions	161	(16)
Andrew C. Pollock
Alex Macauley
Dilek Onkal-Atay
Mary E. Thomson
Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Using Revenue Semaphores	177
Ray D. Nelson
Gary C. Cornia
Andrea Wilko