The Aftershock Investor A Crash Course in Staying Afloat in a Sinking Economy

by Wiedemer, David; Wiedemer, Robert A.; Spitzer, Cindy S.

• ISBN13: 9781118073544
• ISBN10: 1118073541
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2012-09-25
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

Advice on navigating the waters of the financial future from the experts who saw the Great Recession coming From the authors who foresaw the market meltdown and real estate collapse come the next set of predictions for the financial world. While it may seem that the worst of the economic crisis is over, expert economists David Wiedemer, Robert A. Wiedemer, and Cindy Spitzer know better. There is no going back to a pre-2008 world, and we are moving into uncharted territory, with new challenges and opportunities that few people can anticipate. But the future is not all bleak. The Aftershock Investor provides the definitive look at what investors must do to protect themselves. Offering a look at the global economic climate and how to leverage market conditions for investment success, this concise guide shows readers what to do with their money, how to protect their assets, and much more, despite an uncertain future. From authors with a proven track record of accurate predictions about investment options during times of economic hardship Includes tips such as getting rid of variable rate mortgages if you cant sell real estate, getting out of stocks, and what to do with your cash Provides information on how to buy gold and leverage its worth Those who listened to the authors last time around successfully rode out the crisis of 2008 and profited handsomely in the years that followed. The Aftershock Investor offers the same opportunity for coping with what lies ahead.

Author Biography

David Wiedemer, PhD, is a world leader in macroevolutionary economic analysis. His work in information dynamics, technological evolution, and economic history form the basis for the predictions in Aftershock. Dr. Wiedemer is the Chief Economist for Absolute Investment Management. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

ROBERT A. WIEDEMER is a Managing Director of Absolute Investment Management, a macro-focused money management firm that is in alignment with the macroeconomic analysis and perspective of Aftershock. Mr. Wiedemer holds an MBA from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

CINDY S. SPITZER is an award-winning author who has collaborated on more than twenty books, including Chicken Soup for the Soul, Buy and Hold Is Dead (Again), America's Bubble Economy, and many others. Ms. Spitzer is President of Aftershock Consultants, a consulting firm that provides support and insights to individuals, families, and businesses, based on the ideas in Aftershock.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction xiii

Part I: Aftershock

Chapter 1 Bubblequake and Aftershock—A Quick Review of How We Got Here and What’s Next: Why Read This Book? Because We Were Right, Now You Can Be Right, Too 3

You Are Not Asleep with the Sheep 4

Bubblequake! First a Rising Bubble Economy, Now a Falling Bubble Economy 6

Future Infl ation Will Cause Rising Interest Rates 17

From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral 19

Why Don’t Most Conventional Investors See This Coming? 25

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 26

Chapter 2 Since We Last Spoke . . . : Aftershock Update: They Read Our Playbook, the World Is Printing Money 27

Ignoring the Massive Money Printing (the Dollar Bubble) Is a Key Goal of the Cheerleaders 30

Potential Triggers That Could Accelerate a Downtrend in the U.S. Economy 33

A Closer Look at the Current U.S. “Recovery” 40

Bottom Line: “Recovery” Is Still Driven by Massive Borrowing and Massive Money Printing 45

Our Investment Outlook 46

The 2012 Presidential Election 52

In Conclusion 54

Chapter 3 Conventional Wisdom Won’t Work This Time: Introducing Aftershock Wisdom Investing 57

The Key to Conventional Wisdom: The Future Will Be Just Like the Past 59

The Myth of a Natural Growth Rate 61

Real Productivity Growth Is Slowing Down, Here and Around the World 63

Warren Buffett: Master of Conventional Wisdom 65

The Key to Aftershock Wisdom Investing: The Future Is Not the Past! 69

This Debate Is Really Not About Inflation or Deflation, It’s About Protecting the Status Quo with Denial 78

How to Invest in a Falling Bubble Economy 86

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 90

Part II: Aftershock Investing

Chapter 4 Taking Stock of Stocks: Facing the Future of Stocks, Mutual Funds, and Index Funds 95

Love Story: How Stocks Became the Heart of Most Investment Portfolios 96

How Are Stocks Valued? It’s All about Earnings 99

Conventional Wisdom on Stocks 104

Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong 108

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 115

Our Current Recommendations 116

Chapter 5 Bye-Bye Bonds: Why Bonds Are Getting Risky and When to Get Out 119

What Are Bonds? 120

Conventional Wisdom on Bonds: The Safety of the Recent Past Means We Can Count on More Safety Ahead 129

Why Conventional Wisdom on Bonds Is Wrong 132

The Final Two Bubbles in America’s Multibubble Economy Will Pop 134

Bonds Will Fail in Three Stages 137

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 141

Chapter 6 Getting Real about Real Estate 147

What Really Drives Real Estate Prices? 148

The Real Estate Bubble Rises 149

Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate: Continued Low Interest Rates for as Far as the Eye Can See 151

Why Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate Is Wrong 152

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 155

Timing Your Exits Out of Real Estate 165

The High Cost of Doing Nothing 169

Chapter 7 Threats to the Safety Nets: The Future of Whole Life Insurance and Annuities 171

All Insurance and Annuities Are Essentially Investments in Bonds, Stocks, Even Real Estate 172

Conventional Wisdom on Whole Life Insurance and Annuities: Perfectly Safe and Worth Every Penny! 173

Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong: Facing the Real 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room 179

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 182

Chapter 8 Gold: The Once and Future King 189

Gold Was Golden for Centuries 190

Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold as an Investment: Warren Buffett Says Stay Away! 192

Why Conventional Wisdom on Gold Is Wrong 194

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 197

How to Buy Gold 200

Owning Gold as Part of a Well-Diversified Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio 204

How High Will Gold Go? 205

Part III: Your Aftershock Game Plan

Chapter 9 Aftershock Jobs and Businesses 211

The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs 212

Conventional Wisdom about Future Jobs Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past 213

Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong 214

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 216

The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impact on Three Broad Economic Sectors 218

Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets 228

Should I Go to College? 229

Chapter 10 Aftershock Retirement and Estate Planning 231

Types of Retirement Plans 232

The Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Plans 235

Why the Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Is Wrong 236

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 238

Retirement Q&A 245

Estate Planning: Making the Most of Your Assets for Yourself and Your Heirs 247

Chapter 11 Your Aftershock Investment Portfolio 253

Aftershock Portfolio Strategy 254

Key Components 255

Do It Yourself or Bring in Help? 259

Timing—Better to Move Too Early than Too Late 260

The Last Resort: The Stock Market Holiday (the Ultimate Reason Why You Need to Move Early Rather than Later) 266

The Moral 269

Epilogue 273

Appendix Additional Background on Stocks and Bonds 275

Stocks 275

Bonds 282

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Aftershock 290

Index 293