Analytic Support To Intelligence In Counterinsurgencies

by Perry, Walter L.; Gordon, John

• ISBN13: 9780833044563
• ISBN10: 0833044567
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-06-06
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. They will most likely face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. vii
Tables	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxiii
Abbreviations	p. xxv
Introduction	p. 1
The Focus on Conventional Operations	p. 2
The Hard Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 2
About This Monograph	p. 3
The Nature of Modern Insurgency	p. 5
Proto-Insurgency	p. 7
Small-Scale Insurgency	p. 9
Large-Scale Insurgency	p. 10
The Dominance of Intelligence	p. 13
Intelligence Operations in Support of Conventional Combat	p. 13
Intelligence in Support of Counterinsurgencies	p. 15
The Analytic Questions	p. 17
The Proto-Insurgency	p. 17
Small-Scale Insurgency	p. 18
Large-Scale Insurgency	p. 20
Intelligence Analysis	p. 25
Data: Precision Versus Accuracy	p. 25
Discerning Patterns	p. 28
Predictive Tools	p. 31
Analyzing Insurgent Networks: The "Counterinsurgency Common Operational Picture" (COINCOP)	p. 35
Enemy-Friendly Interaction Analyses	p. 38
A Game Theory Approach	p. 40
Response Detection	p. 43
Conclusions	p. 51
Modern Insurgency	p. 52
The Role of Analysis	p. 52
Bibliography	p. 55
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