Analyzing Intelligence

by George, Roger Z.; Bruce, James B.

• ISBN13: 9781589012011
• ISBN10: 1589012011
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-04-15
• Publisher: Georgetown Univ Pr

Summary

Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts.

Table of Contents

Intelligence Analysis - The Emergence of a Discipline	p. 1
The Analytic Tradition
The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis	p. 19
The Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950 to 2000	p. 35
Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline?	p. 55
The Policy-Analyst Relationship
Serving the National Policymaker	p. 71
The Policymaker's Perspective: Transparency and Partnership	p. 82
Intelligence Analysis: Between "Politicization" and Irrelevance	p. 91
Enduring Challenges
The Art of Strategy and Intelligence	p. 107
Foreign Denial and Deception: Analytical Imperatives	p. 122
U.S. Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges	p. 138
Diagnosis and Prescription
Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts	p. 157
Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence	p. 171
The Missing Link: The Analyst-Collector Relationship	p. 191
Leading Analytic Change
Managing Analysis in the Information Age	p. 213
Intelligence in Transition: Analysis after September 11 and Iraq	p. 226
The New Analysis	p. 238
New Frontiers of Analysis
Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypotheses	p. 251
Predictive Warning: Teams, Networks, and Scientific Method	p. 266
Homeland Security Intelligence: Rationale, Requirements, and Current Status	p. 281
Conclusion: The Age of Analysis	p. 295
Glossary of Analysis Terms	p. 309
Contributors	p. 321
Index	p. 325
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