Blindside How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

by Fukuyama, Francis

• ISBN13: 9780815729907
• ISBN10: 0815729901
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2007-08-28
• Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Summary

"Important institutional constraints make it difficult to act even when some people can and do actively anticipate a low-probability, high-impact contingency. Hurricane Katrina was one of the most fully predictable and scenario-tested natural disasters in American history, but that fact still did not lead to appropriate or adequate preparatory actions or adequate crisis responses...." Book jacket.

Table of Contents

The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction	p. 1
Thinking about Catastrophe	p. 7
Cases: Looking Back
Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy	p. 23
U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception	p. 29
Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case	p. 42
Cases: Looking Ahead
The Once and Future DARPA	p. 57
Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security	p. 71
Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared?	p. 82
Forecasting
Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise	p. 93
Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?	p. 109
Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples	p. 120
What Could Be
Cassandra versus Pollyanna	p. 129
Global Discontinuities	p. 143
American Scenarios	p. 153
Afterword	p. 169
Notes	p. 173
Contributors	p. 181
Index	p. 183
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