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9780415278461

The Poverty of Historicism

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780415278461

  • ISBN10:

    0415278465

  • Edition: 2nd
  • Format: Nonspecific Binding
  • Copyright: 2002-03-29
  • Publisher: Routledge

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Summary

Hailed on publication in 1957 as "probably the only book published this year that will outlive the century," this is a brilliant of the idea that there are fixed laws in history and that human beings are able to predict them.

Table of Contents

Historical Note
Preface
Introductionp. 1
The Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicismp. 4
Generalizationp. 5
Experimentp. 7
Noveltyp. 8
Complexityp. 10
Inexactitude of Predictionp. 11
Objectivity and Valuationp. 12
Holismp. 15
Intuitive Understandingp. 17
Quantitative Methodsp. 21
Essentialism versus Nominalismp. 23
The Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicismp. 31
Comparison with Astronomy. Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecastsp. 32
The Observational Basisp. 34
Social Dynamicsp. 35
Historical Lawsp. 36
Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineeringp. 37
The Theory of Historical Developmentp. 40
Interpreting versus Planning Social Changep. 44
Conclusion of the Analysisp. 46
Criticism of the Anti-Naturalistic Doctrinesp. 50
Practical Aims of this Criticismp. 50
The Technological Approach to Sociologyp. 53
Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineeringp. 58
The Unholy Alliance with Utopianismp. 65
Criticism of Holismp. 70
The Holistic Theory of Social Experimentsp. 76
The Variability of Experimental Conditionsp. 85
Are Generalizations Confined to Periods?p. 89
Criticism of the Pro-Naturalistic Doctrinesp. 96
Is there a Law of Evolution? Laws and Trendsp. 96
The Method of Reduction. Causal Explanation. Prediction and Prophecyp. 110
The Unity of Methodp. 120
Theoretical and Historical Sciencesp. 132
Situational Logic in History. Historical Interpretationp. 136
The Institutional Theory of Progressp. 141
Conclusion: The Emotional Appeal of Historicismp. 148
Indexp. 150
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

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