Business Planning for Turbulent Times

by Ramirez, Rafael; Selsky, John W., Ph.D.; Van Der Heijden, Kees

• ISBN13: 9781849710619
• ISBN10: 1849710619
• Edition: 2nd
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-03-24
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This second edition extends the use of scenarios planning and methods to tackle the risk and uncertainty of financial markets and the potentially massive impacts on businesses of all kinds, providing powerful tools to give far thinking executives an advantage in these turbulent times. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.

Author Biography

Rafael Ramrez is James Martin Senior Research Fellow in Futures at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society of the Sad Business School and the 21st Century Schools of the University of Oxford, and co-chairs the World Economic Forum's 'Global Agenda Council on Strategic Foresight'. John W. Selsky is Associate Professor of management, College of Business, University of South Florida Polytechnic. Kees van der Heijden is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management at Strathclyde University Business School, Glasgow, and currently Fellow in Strategic Management at Templeton College and Sad Business School, University of Oxford.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables	p. vii
List of Contributors	p. ix
Foreword	p. xiv
Preface	p. xvi
Acknowledgements	p. xx
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations	p. xxi
Introduction: Why Write This Book and for Whom?	p. 3
Conceptual and Historical Overview	p. 17
How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other?	p. 31
Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective	p. 47
New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought	p. 65
Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis	p. 87
Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence	p. 103
Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare	p. 131
To What Extent Do Venezuela's Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue?	p. 147
Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios	p. 167
Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence	p. 187
From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice	p. 207
Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground	p. 223
Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios?	p. 243
Turbulence, Business Planning and the Unfolding Financial Crisis	p. 261
Conclusion: The Conjuncture of Scenarios and Causal Textures - Contributions and Progress	p. 283
Postscript	p. 295
Index	p. 305
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