Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections

by Abramson, Paul R.; Aldrich, John H.; Rohde, David W.

• ISBN13: 9781568024745
• ISBN10: 1568024746
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-03-01
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Summary

The predicted Republican landslide didn't materialize in the 1998 election; nor did the Clinton scandal play a major role in how people voted. Newspapers can tell their readers as much as this, and pundits can guess at the underlying causes. Only Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections employs reliable empirical data to explain why the American people voted as they did.

Employing the National Election Studies survey from the University of Michigan and other reputable polls, the authors analyze:
-- Why voters rejected the Republican scandal agenda
-- What issues were uppermost on voters' minds
-- Which voting groups voted for whom ... and why, and
-- How the 1998 election bodes for the year 2000 presidential election and beyond.

Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections also includes complete analysis of the 1996 elections that brought Clinton to the White House for a second term.

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures	viii
Preface	xii
PART 1 The 1996 Presidential Election	1	(60)
The Nomination Struggle	11	(16)
Who Ran	12	(3)
The Rules of the Nomination System	15	(5)
Why Dole Won	20	(5)
The Conventions	25	(2)
The General Election Campaign	27	(15)
The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices	27	(4)
From Labor Day to the Debates	31	(3)
The Debates: A Democratic ``Hat Trick''	34	(2)
Final Efforts	36	(2)
Did the Campaign Matter?	38	(4)
The Election Results	42	(19)
The Perot Vote and the Election Rules	43	(5)
The Pattern of Results	48	(2)
State-by-State Results	50	(5)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South	55	(2)
The Electoral Vote Balance	57	(4)
PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 1996 Presidential Election	61	(130)
Who Voted?	65	(26)
Turnout from 1828 through 1916	65	(3)
Turnout from 1920 through 1996	68	(3)
Turnout among Social Groups	71	(8)
Why Has Turnout Declined?	79	(7)
Does Low Turnout Matter?	86	(5)
Social Forces and the Vote	91	(24)
How Social Groups Voted in 1996	92	(8)
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years	100	(13)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down	113	(2)
Candidates, Issues, and the Vote	115	(28)
Attitudes toward the Candidates	116	(5)
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations	121	(2)
The Concerns of the Electorate	123	(2)
Issue Positions and Perceptions	125	(4)
Issue Voting Criteria	129	(3)
Apparent Issue Voting in 1996	132	(9)
The Issue Preferences of Perot Voters	141	(1)
Conclusion	142	(1)
Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice	143	(21)
What is Retrospective Voting?	144	(2)
Evaluations of Governmental Performance	146	(4)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent	150	(5)
Evaluations of the Incumbent	155	(1)
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations	155	(6)
The Retrospective Evaluations of Perot Voters	161	(2)
Conclusion	163	(1)
Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote	164	(27)
Party Identification: The Standard View	164	(1)
Party Identification: An Alternative View	165	(1)
Party Identification in the Electorate	166	(6)
Party Identification and the Vote	172	(2)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations	174	(11)
The Perot Candidacy	185	(4)
Conclusion	189	(2)
PART 3 The 1996 and 1998 Congressional Elections	191	(84)
Candidates and Outcomes in 1996	197	(38)
Election Outcomes in 1996	197	(15)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes	212	(11)
The 1996 Elections: The Impact on Congress	223	(4)
The 1998 Elections and Beyond	227	(8)
The Congressional Electorate in 1996	235	(14)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote	235	(4)
Issues and the Congressional Vote	239	(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote	240	(2)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote	242	(2)
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum	244	(2)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote	246	(2)
Conclusion	248	(1)
The 1998 Congressional Elections	249	(26)
The Pattern of Outcomes	249	(2)
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results	251	(4)
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections	255	(10)
The 1998 Elections: The Impact on Congress	265	(5)
The 2000 Elections and Beyond	270	(5)
PART 4 The 1996 and 1998 Elections in Perspective	275	(18)
The 1996 and 1998 Elections and the Future of American Politics	279	(14)
Prospects for the Democrats	282	(5)
Prospects for the Republicans	287	(1)
Prospects for a New Political Party	288	(2)
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility	290	(3)
Notes	293	(52)
Suggested Readings	345	(13)
Index	358