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List of Figures, Tables, and Appendices | p. xi |
Preface | p. xv |
Acknowledgments | p. xviii |
Initial Conditions | p. 1 |
Overview | p. 3 |
Introduction | p. 3 |
Human Origins | p. 7 |
The 40 000 Years to 10 000 BC | p. 9 |
The Last 12 000 Years | p. 11 |
A Few Fundamentals of Population Growth | p. 14 |
The Quality and Quantity of Life | p. 15 |
The English Parson, Thomas Malthus | p. 17 |
Measurement and Inference | p. 19 |
The Census | p. 22 |
A Nearly Modern Census | p. 22 |
Modern Censuses | p. 24 |
Some Problems of Early Modern Censuses | p. 25 |
Models of Human Behavior | p. 26 |
Outline | p. 27 |
The Historical Setting | p. 31 |
Introduction | p. 31 |
The Demographic Transition | p. 31 |
Structural Transition of the Economy | p. 33 |
Long-Run Changes in Economic Well-Being | p. 36 |
Net Replacement | p. 40 |
Dependency and Participation | p. 43 |
How Does the Demographic Transition End or Does It? | p. 45 |
Variation | p. 50 |
Globalization, Macroeconomics and Population | p. 52 |
Institutional Change and Externalities | p. 56 |
Growth and Dispersal of the Human Population | p. 63 |
Mortality: The Fourth Horseman | p. 65 |
What Do People Die From? | p. 65 |
Infant and Child Mortality | p. 70 |
The Probability of Death and Life Expectancy | p. 73 |
Seasonal Pattern of Death | p. 82 |
Seasonality and Longevity | p. 84 |
Urban Mortality | p. 85 |
The Mortality Transition: Crude Death Rates | p. 89 |
The Fertility Transition | p. 98 |
The Fertility Transition | p. 98 |
The Queen and the Anabaptists | p. 100 |
Strategic Choice | p. 102 |
When to Marry | p. 106 |
The "Never Married" | p. 111 |
Illegitimacy | p. 114 |
The Seasonal Pattern of Birth | p. 115 |
Disruptions | p. 117 |
The Fertility Transition: Crude Birth Rates | p. 118 |
Farms and Towns | p. 123 |
Long Distance Migration | p. 132 |
The Migratory Instinct | p. 132 |
Who's In and Who's Out | p. 136 |
Migration of the Unfree | p. 138 |
Slaves | p. 138 |
Convicts and Indentured Servants | p. 141 |
Child Migrants | p. 144 |
The Atlantic: Waves of Immigration | p. 145 |
Unbalanced Cargoes | p. 150 |
Information and Advertising | p. 152 |
Remittances: Then and Now | p. 153 |
There and Back Again - Reverse Migrations | p. 155 |
Diaspora | p. 153 |
The Chinese | p. 158 |
The Irish | p. 162 |
The Jews | p. 154 |
The Barriers Go Up | p. 166 |
The Walker Thesis, Displacement and Savings | p. 168 |
A Final Word on Long Distance Migration | p. 169 |
Regional Migration | p. 181 |
Introduction | p. 181 |
The US Westward Movement and Other Frontiers | p. 183 |
Urbanization and Industrial Change | p. 188 |
The Rural-Urban Shift | p. 191 |
Town and Farm and the Changing Economic Role of Children | p. 195 |
The Great Black Migration in the US | p. 195 |
Declining Regions: Dust Bowls and Yorkshire Coal Mines | p. 198 |
Inter-Urban Migration | p. 199 |
Migration: In the Neighborhood | p. 200 |
Scotland - England | p. 200 |
Canada-USA | p. 201 |
The Undocumented | p. 203 |
Convergence | p. 205 |
Summary of Part Two -Putting It All Together | p. 207 |
Choices and Their Consequences | p. 217 |
The Changing Family | p. 219 |
Introduction | p. 219 |
Courtship and Marriage | p. 221 |
Household and Family Size | p. 225 |
Child Labor | p. 228 |
Family Connections: Networks | p. 234 |
Marital Dissolution | p. 236 |
Married Women's Property | p. 240 |
Poverty: One-Parent Families and Elderly Females | p. 242 |
Health and Weil-Being | p. 255 |
Introduction | p. 255 |
Glasgow: Then and Now | p. 256 |
Morbidity | p. 257 |
Early Populations and Nutrition | p. 262 |
Birth Weights | p. 266 |
The Human Development Index | p. 267 |
Obesity and the BMI | p. 269 |
Household Space | p. 274 |
Health and Hospital Care Systems | p. 276 |
Macroeconomic Effects of the Industrial Transition | p. 286 |
Introduction | p. 286 |
Shocks and Echoes - the Baby Boom | p. 287 |
Children and the Saving Shift | p. 288 |
Intergenerational Contracts or Life Cycles: Pensions | p. 291 |
The Work-Leisure Choice | p. 297 |
Time Spent in Household Work | p. 301 |
Education and Human Capital | p. 305 |
Population Catastrophes | p. 315 |
The Nature of Catastrophes | p. 315 |
The Greenland Norse and the Easter Islanders | p. 316 |
North American Native Indians | p. 318 |
Famine | p. 321 |
We All Fall Down! Plague | p. 324 |
The HIV/AIDS Pandemic | p. 333 |
When, Not If? But Not Now! Flu Pandemics | p. 338 |
Summary | p. 342 |
Conclusions | p. 351 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 353 |
General and Frequently Referenced Sources | p. 358 |
Index | p. 360 |
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