China's Arms Sales Motivations And Implications

by Byman, Daniel L.; Cliff, Roger

• ISBN13: 9780833027764
• ISBN10: 083302776X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-01-04
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

China's arms sales have become the focus of considerable attention and pose a moderate threat to U.S. interests. Although Chinese sales have fallen in recent years, and Beijing has become more responsible in the transfer of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies, much progress will be needed to curtail China's behavior. Principal recipients of Chinese arms have been Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand. These countries and others seek Chinese weapons because they are available, cheap, and easy to use and maintain. In addition to missiles, the Chinese are willing to transfer NBC technology. The United States and other countries do have a modest ability to influence Chinese behavior, and China has increasingly wished to be viewed as a responsible world nation. The analysis supports three major findings about China's arms sale behavior: (1) China's arms transfers not motivated primarily to generate export earnings but by

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Summary	vii
Acknowledgments	xiii
Introduction	1	(2)
Background	3	(4)
Explaining China's Arms Transfers	7	(24)
China's Principal Arms Transfer Relationships	7	(16)
Iran	8	(5)
Iraq	13	(1)
Pakistan	14	(2)
North Korea	16	(3)
Myanmar	19	(2)
Thailand	21	(2)
Recipient Country Demand	23	(3)
Beijing's Incentives	26	(5)
China's Foreign Policy Interests	27	(1)
Commercial Motivations for Arms Transfers	28	(3)
Possible Constraints on China's Arms Transfers	31	(14)
Beijing's Ability to Control Arms Transfers	31	(4)
Beijing's Attitudes Toward Arms Sales and Proliferation	35	(3)
China's Degree of Adherence to Nonproliferation Regimes	38	(3)
U.S. Ability to Influence Beijing	41	(4)
Implications for the United States	45	(4)
Implications of Unpreventable Transfers	47	(1)
Final Words	48	(1)
Appendix: An Overview of China's Arms Sales	49	(6)
Bibliography	55