Cities Transformed : Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World

by Stren, Richard; Cohen, Barney; Reed, Holly E.; Montgomery, Mark R.

• ISBN13: 9780309088626
• ISBN10: 0309088623
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-11-01
• Publisher: Natl Academy Pr

Summary

Virtually all of the growth in the world's population for the foreseeable future will take place in the cities and towns of the developing world. Over the next twenty years, most developing countries will for the first time become more urban than rural. The benefits from urbanization cannot be overlooked, but the speed and sheer scale of this transformation present many challenges. A new cast of policy makers is emerging to take up the many responsibilities of urban governance--as many national governments decentralize and devolve their functions, programs in poverty, health, education, and public services are increasingly being deposited in the hands of untested municipal and regional governments. Demographers have been surprisingly slow to devote attention to the implications of the urban transformation. Drawing from a wide variety of data sources, many of them previously inaccessible. "Cities Transformed explores the implications of various urban contexts for marriage, fertility, health, schooling, and children's lives. It should be of interest to all involved in city-level research, policy, planning, and investment decisions.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	1	(8)
1 INTRODUCTION	9	(20)
The Demographic Transformation,	11	(6)
The Transformation of Cities,	17	(8)
The Panel's Charge,	25	(2)
Study Scope and Approach,	27	(1)
Organization of the Report,	28	(1)
2 WHY LOCATION MATTERS	29	(46)
Places, Networks, Neighborhoods,	31	(20)
Sustaining Diversity: Economic Interactions,	51	(7)
City Systems and City-Regions,	58	(6)
From Government to Governance,	64	(3)
What Remains of the Urban/Rural Divide?	67	(8)
3 URBAN POPULATION CHANGE: A SKETCH	75	(33)
Cities Amid Global Forces,	76	(5)
Key Demographic Features of the Urban Transition,	81	(14)
Major Regional Differences,	95	(11)
Conclusions,	106	(2)
4 URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS: MODELS, MEASURES, AND FORECASTS	108	(47)
The Simple Analytics,	110	(10)
Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Urban Age Structure,	120	(8)
Core Issues in Definition and Measurement,	128	(13)
Projecting Urban Populations,	141	(5)
Statistical Systems for Disaggregated Data,	146	(5)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	151	(4)
5 DIVERSITY AND INEQUALITY	155	(44)
A Spatial Perspective,	157	(3)
Human Capital: Schooling,	160	(4)
Urban Well-Being: Concepts and Measures,	164	(3)
Access to Public Services,	167	(13)
Measuring Absolute Poverty in Cities,	180	(4)
Risk and Vulnerability,	184	(4)
Children's Lives,	188	(7)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	195	(4)
6 FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH	199	(60)
The Urban Dimension,	200	(9)
An Empirical Overview,	209	(17)
Fertility Transitions and Economic Crises,	226	(5)
The Urban Poor,	231	(11)
Migrants,	242	(5)
Urban Adolescents,	247	(4)
Urban Service Delivery,	251	(4)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	255	(4)
7 MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY: IS CITY LIFE GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH?	259	(41)
Distinctive Aspects of Urban Health,	262	(1)
The Disease Spectrum,	262	(10)
Recent Evidence on Children's Health and Survival,	272	(12)
A Penalty for the Urban Poor?	284	(5)
Health Service Provision and Treatment Seeking,	289	(6)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	295	(5)
8 THE URBAN ECONOMY TRANSFORMED	300	(55)
Sector and Space,	302	(17)
Economic Returns to Schooling,	319	(3)
Migration and Economic Mobility,	322	(9)
The Informalization of Urban Labor Markets,	331	(9)
Earnings Inequality: Case Studies,	340	(3)
The Future of Urban Labor Markets: Global Links and Local Outcomes,	343	(9)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	352	(3)
9 THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN GOVERNANCE	355	(55)
The Concept of Urban Governance,	357	(6)
Major Challenges of Urban Governance in Developing Countries,	363	(38)
Is There a "Best" Model of Urban Governance?	401	(6)
Conclusions and Recommendations,	407	(3)
10 LOOKING AHEAD	410	(9)
Directions for Future Research,	412	(2)
Improving the Research Infrastructure,	414	(5)
REFERENCES	419	(62)
APPENDICES
A Concepts and Definitions of Metropolitan Regions	481	(3)
B Mathematical Derivations	484	(3)
C Linking DHS Surveys to United Nations City Data	487	(8)
D United Nations Estimates and Projections	495	(4)
E Measuring Relative Poverty with DHS Data	499	(4)
F Recommendations for the Demographic and Health Surveys	503	(4)
Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff	507	(8)
INDEX	515