9780470178423

The Commitments of Traders Bible How To Profit from Insider Market Intelligence

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780470178423

  • ISBN10:

    0470178426

  • Edition: 1st
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2008-04-04
  • Publisher: Wiley
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Supplemental Materials

What is included with this book?

  • The New copy of this book will include any supplemental materials advertised. Please check the title of the book to determine if it should include any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

Summary

The foremost analyst of Commitments of Traders data, Steve Briese describes in his new book exactly how he uses the data to analyze market movements and identify turning points in the futures market. Under the rules of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, large positions must be reported by different categories of traders. Typically, the CoT data represents 70-90 percent of market activity in any particular futures markets. By carefully analyzing the positions of large traders, Briese shows readers how to understand exactly who is buying, who is selling, and who is standing on the sidelines. Armed with this knowledge, a trader or analyst can much more easily identify when market sentiment is changing and - in so doing - spot big profit opportunities. The book describes exactly how CoT works and how it has been traditionally used and misused. Briese discusses the predictive power of CoT data - both from his own experience and in light of studies done by academics. Most importantly, Briese provides readers with his own hard-won insights about CoT patterns in different markets and how each market typically has its own idiosyncrasies. He includes a large appendix that will allow traders to compare contemporary CoT charts with historic CoT charts and thereby gain a sense of where the market might be headed.

Author Biography

Stephen Briese is the leading expert on analyzing the Commitments of Traders data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Briese has published a newsletter, Bullish Review, since 1988 and has written articles for several industry publications and spoken at a variety of industry trading and technical analysis conferences.

Table of Contents

List Of Illustrations
List Of Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
The COT -Assorted History
The Grain Futures Administration
The Commodity Exchange Authority
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The Modern COT Data
COT Futures & Options Combined Report
COT-Supplemental Commodity Index Trader Report
COT Reports -Counting 1, 2, 3 ... The Long Form
The Short Form
COT-Supplemental Commodity Index Report
Player Introductions
Sizing Them Up
The Reporting System
Commercial Hedgers
Large Speculators
Commodity Index Traders
Small Traders
Fading Small Speculators And Other Half-Baked Schemes
TIP: Always Follow Commercials
TIP: Net Long Is Bullish; Net Short Bearish
TIP: Always Fade The Small Speculator
TIP: It Is Only Logical To Compare Hedging To The Seasonal Average
TIP: The COT Is Old News By The Time It Is Released
Net Positions
Open Interest
Constructing Net Positions Charts
Large Speculator Patterns
Commercial Patterns
Small Trader Patterns
Commodity Index Traders
The COT
Index
Calculating The COT
Index
Alternative Look-Back Periods
The COT Index As The Great Normalizer
Interpreting The COT
Index
Heal Thyself
COT Movement
Index
Commercial Movement
Index 40-Point COT Surge Rules (Commercials)
Combining The Indexes
Fund Movement
Index
View From The Gallery
Keynes Theory Of Normal Backwardation
Can Speculators Forecast Prices Houthakker, 1957
Returns To Speculators And The Theory Of Normal Backwardation
Returns To Individual Traders Of Futures: Aggregate Results Hartzmark 1987
Luck Versus Forecast Ability: Determinants Of Trader Performance In Futures Markets Hartzmark 1991
The Returns And Forecasting Ability Of Large Traders In The Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market Leuthold, Garcia Lu. 1994
Hedging Pressure Effects In Futures Markets
Hedging Demand And Foreign Exchange Risk
Investor Sentiment And Return Predictability In Agricultural Futures Markets Wang 2001
The Behavior And Performance Of Major Types Of Futures Traders Wang 2003
Exchange Rate Changes And Net Positions Of Speculators In The Futures Market
The Profitability Of Speculators In Currency Futures Markets And Manners 2004)
Summary
View From The Pits
The Study Data
The Trading Rules
Trading Rules Test Results
Trading System Considerations
Chart Pattern Validation
A Brief Charting Primer
Bottom Formations
Top Formations
Continuation Patterns
Getting Technical
COT-Stochastics
COT MACD-Histogram
COT-RSI
Standard Deviation (Bollinger) Bands
Conclusions
Breaking Down The COT Report
Crossing Currencies
Commercials
U.S. Dollar
Index
Charts And Correlation Tables
Taking Stock
The COT Beats The Averages
Stock Index Charts And Correlation Tables
Test Of Metal
Golden Opportunities
The Gold/Silver Ratio
The Copper Caper
Commercials
Metal Charts And Correlation Tables
Oil's Slick
Barons Of The Oil Pit
To An Uninterrupted Gasoline Supply
Commercial Hedgers
Historica
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

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