Dangerous Thresholds Managing Escalation in the 21st Century

by Morgan, Forrest E.; Mueller, Karl P.; Medeiros, Evan S.; Pollpeter, Kevin L.; Cliff, Roger

• ISBN13: 9780833042132
• ISBN10: 0833042130
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-07-20
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

"Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition. When such competition entails military confrontation or war, the pressure to escalate can become intense due to the potential cost of losing contests of deadly force. Cold War-era thinking about escalation focused on the dynamics of bipolar, superpower confrontation and strategies to control it. Today's security environment, however, demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats involving not only longstanding nuclear powers, but also new, lesser nuclear powers and irregular adversaries, such as insurgent groups and terrorists. This examination of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global jihad. It reveals that, to manage the risks of escalatory chain reactions in future conflicts, military and political leaders will need to understand and dampen the mechanisms of deliberate, accidental, and inadvertent escalation. Informing the analysis are the results of two modified Delphi exercises, which focused on a potential conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan and a potential conflict between states and nonstate actors in the event of a collapse of Pakistan's government."--BOOK JACKET.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxiii
Glossary	p. xxv
Introduction	p. 1
Background	p. 1
Contemporary Challenges	p. 3
Purpose of This Monograph	p. 4
Organization and Approach	p. 5
The Nature of Escalation	p. 7
Understanding Escalation	p. 8
Thresholds and the Subjectivity of Escalation	p. 11
Limited War	p. 14
Escalation Dominance	p. 14
Dimensions of Escalation: Vertical, Horizontal, and Political	p. 18
Escalation Mechanisms	p. 19
Deliberate Escalation	p. 20
Inadvertent Escalation	p. 23
Accidental Escalation	p. 26
Complexity in Escalation	p. 28
Motives for Escalation	p. 29
Instrumental Escalation	p. 30
Suggestive Escalation	p. 31
Other Motives for Escalation	p. 33
Dynamics of Escalation	p. 34
Constraints on Escalation	p. 36
Escalation and Instability in the 21st Century	p. 38
New Escalation Options	p. 38
Perceived Political Fragility	p. 40
Windows of Opportunity and Vulnerability	p. 40
Indifference to Escalation Risks	p. 42
Anticipating and Managing Escalation	p. 43
China's Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings	p. 47
Introduction	p. 47
Background and Conceptual Issues	p. 50
Understanding Chinese Views on Escalation and War Control	p. 51
The Conceptual Foundation of War Control	p. 52
Operationalizing War Control: Military Measures to Contain Warfare	p. 54
Assessing Chinese Escalation Behavior Through the Lens of the Second Artillery Doctrine	p. 58
Second Artillery Nuclear Operations and Escalation	p. 61
Key Nuclear Doctrine Concepts	p. 63
Additional Questions About Second Artillery Nuclear Operations	p. 65
Second Artillery Conventional Missile Strike Campaigns	p. 68
Implications for Chinese Escalation Behavior	p. 70
Chinese Views on Space Warfare and Escalation	p. 71
Conclusion	p. 76
Regional Nuclear Powers	p. 83
Escalation Risks Inherent in Emergent Nuclear Capability	p. 85
Sources of Regional Instability	p. 88
Instability and Risks of Escalation in Northeast Asia	p. 89
Instability and Escalation in South and Southwest Asia	p. 95
Risks of Escalation in the Ongoing Conflict Between India and Pakistan	p. 97
Risks of Escalation Due to Domestic Instability in Pakistan	p. 106
The Risks of Escalation in a Conflict with Iran	p. 109
Conclusion	p. 113
Escalation in Irregular Warfare	p. 117
Irregular Warfare's Many Paths of Escalation	p. 118
Escalation in Stability Operations: Two Illustrative Cases	p. 124
Multiple Actors in a Complex Strategic Environment	p. 126
Multiple Conflicts Exist Simultaneously	p. 127
ROE and the Challenge of Complexity	p. 129
Dramatic Asymmetries of Power, Interest, and Commitment	p. 131
Irregular Warfare Undermines Traditional Escalation-Management Approaches	p. 132
Escalation in the Global Jihad	p. 133
The Roots of Global Jihad	p. 134
The Escalation Dynamics of Global Jihad	p. 135
Escalation in Response to Global Jihad	p. 141
Escalation Management in the Struggle Against Global Jihad	p. 150
Strategies in the Global Jihad	p. 153
Managing the Escalatory Effects of Global Jihad	p. 154
Conclusion	p. 157
Managing Escalation in a Complex World	p. 159
The First Step in Managing Escalation Is Understanding Its Nature	p. 160
Deterring Deliberate Escalation	p. 160
Managing Inadvertent Escalation: A Matter of Clarifying Thresholds	p. 163
Managing Forces to Avoid Accidental Escalation	p. 165
Dominance as a Means of Escalation Management	p. 165
The Role of Technology in Escalation and Escalation Management	p. 168
Managing Escalation Risks in Today's World	p. 169
Escalation Management in a Limited Conflict with China	p. 169
Managing Escalation in Confrontations with Other Regional Nuclear Powers	p. 170
Escalation Management in Irregular Warfare	p. 172
Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force	p. 174
Appendixes
China, Force, and Escalation: Continuities Between Historical Behavior and Contemporary Writings	p. 177
Case Studies of Escalation in Stability Operations	p. 197
Modified Method for Delphi Analyses	p. 221
Bibliography	p. 225
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