Data Analysis and Decision Making with Microsoft Excel (with CD-ROM, InfoTrac, and Decision Tools and Statistic Tools Suite)

by Albright, S. Christian; Winston, Wayne; Zappe, Christopher

• ISBN13: 9780324400823
• ISBN10: 0324400829
• Edition: 3rd
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2005-08-01
• Publisher: South-Western College Pub

Summary

Master data analysis, modeling, and spreadsheet use with DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING WITH MICROSOFT EXCEL! With a teach-by-example approach, student-friendly writing style, and complete Excel integration, this business statistics text provides you with the tools you need to succeed. Margin notes, boxed-in definitions and formulas in the text, enhanced explanations in the text itself, and stated objectives for the examples found throughout the text make studying easy. Problem sets and cases provide realistic examples that enable you to see the relevance of the material to your future as a business leader.

Table of Contents

Introduction to Data Analysis and Decision Making	1	(28)
Introduction	2	(2)
An Overview of the Book	4	(7)
A Sampling of Examples	11	(10)
Modeling and Models	21	(5)
Conclusion	26	(3)
Case 1.1 Entertainment on a Cruise Ship	27	(2)
PART 1 Getting, Describing, and Summarizing Data	29	(164)
Describing Data: Graphs and Tables	31	(48)
Introduction	33	(1)
Basic Concepts	33	(5)
Frequency Tables and Histograms	38	(10)
Analyzing Relationships with Scatterplots	48	(4)
Time Series Graphs	52	(5)
Exploring Data with Pivot Tables	57	(11)
Conclusion	68	(11)
Case 2.1 Customer Arrivals at Bank98	75	(1)
Case 2.2 Automobile Production and Purchases	76	(1)
Case 2.3 Saving, Spending, and Social Climbing	77	(2)
Describing Data: Summary Measures	79	(56)
Introduction	81	(1)
Measures of Central Location	82	(3)
Quartiles and Percentiles	85	(1)
Minimum, Maximum, and Range	85	(1)
Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation	86	(5)
Obtaining Summary Measures with Add-Ins	91	(4)
Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation	95	(4)
Describing Data Sets with Boxplots	99	(5)
Applying the Tools	104	(20)
Conclusion	124	(11)
Case 3.1 The Dow Jones Averages	131	(2)
Case 3.2 Other Market Indexes	133	(1)
Case 3.3 Correct Interpretation of Means	134	(1)
Getting the Right Data	135	(58)
Introduction	136	(1)
Sources of Data	137	(3)
Using Excel's AutoFilter	140	(6)
Complex Queries with the Advanced Filter	146	(6)
Importing External Data from Access	152	(11)
Creating Pivot Tables from External Data	163	(2)
Web Queries	165	(8)
Other Data Sources on the Web	173	(6)
Cleansing the Data	179	(7)
Conclusion	186	(7)
Case 4.1 EduToys, Inc.	191	(2)
PART 2 Probability, Uncertainty, and Decision Making	193	(182)
Probability and Probability Distributions	195	(50)
Introduction	196	(1)
Probability Essentials	197	(7)
Distribution of a Single Random Variable	204	(5)
An Introduction to Simulation	209	(4)
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario Approach	213	(6)
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint Probability Approach	219	(6)
Independent Random Variables	225	(4)
Weighted Sums of Random Variables	229	(7)
Conclusion	236	(9)
Case 5.1 Simpson's Paradox	243	(2)
Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions	245	(60)
Introduction	247	(1)
The Normal Distribution	247	(9)
Applications of the Normal Distribution	256	(12)
The Binomial Distribution	268	(5)
Applications of the Binomial Distribution	273	(11)
The Poisson and Exponential Distributions	284	(5)
Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data: BestFit	289	(5)
Conclusion	294	(11)
Case 6.1 EuroWatch Company	301	(1)
Case 6.2 Cashing in on the Lottery	302	(3)
Decision Making under Uncertainty	305	(70)
Introduction	306	(1)
Elements of a Decision Analysis	307	(13)
The PrecisionTree Add-In	320	(12)
Bayes' Rule	332	(5)
Multistage Decision Problems	337	(15)
Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk	352	(6)
Conclusion	358	(17)
Case 7.1 Jogger Shoe Company	370	(1)
Case 7.2 Westhouser Paper Company	371	(1)
Case 7.3 Biotechnical Engineering	372	(3)
PART 3 Statistical Inference	375	(184)
Sampling and Sampling Distributions	377	(44)
Introduction	378	(1)
Sampling Terminology	378	(1)
Methods for Selecting Random Samples	379	(14)
An Introduction to Estimation	393	(18)
Conclusion	411	(10)
Case 8.1 Sampling from Videocassette Renters	419	(2)
Confidence Interval Estimation	421	(66)
Introduction	422	(1)
Sampling Distributions	423	(6)
Confidence Interval for a Mean	429	(6)
Confidence Interval for a Total	435	(3)
Confidence Interval for a Proportion	438	(5)
Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation	443	(3)
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means	446	(15)
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Proportions	461	(6)
Controlling Confidence Interval Length	467	(8)
Conclusion	475	(12)
Case 9.1 Harrigan University Admissions	482	(1)
Case 9.2 Employee Retention at D&Y	483	(1)
Case 9.3 Delivery Times at SnowPea Restaurant	484	(1)
Case 9.4 The Bodfish Lot Cruise	485	(2)
Hypothesis Testing	487	(72)
Introduction	488	(1)
Concepts in Hypothesis Testing	489	(7)
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean	496	(7)
Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters	503	(22)
Tests for Normality	525	(6)
Chi-Square Test for Independence	531	(6)
One-Way ANOVA	537	(7)
Conclusion	544	(15)
Case 10.1 Regression Toward the Mean	551	(1)
Case 10.2 Baseball Statistics	552	(1)
Case 10.3 The Wichita Anti-Drunk Driving Advertising Campaign	553	(2)
Case 10.4 Deciding Whether to Switch to a New Toothpaste Dispenser	555	(3)
Case 10.5 Removing Vioxx from the Market	558	(1)
PART 4 Regression, Forecasting, and Time Series	559	(218)
Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships	561	(72)
Introduction	562	(3)
Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships	565	(8)
Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships	573	(2)
Simple Linear Regression	575	(11)
Multiple Regression	586	(6)
Modeling Possibilities	592	(26)
Validation of the Fit	618	(2)
Conclusion	620	(13)
Case 11.1 Quantity Discounts at the FirmChair Company	628	(1)
Case 11.2 Housing Price Structure in MidCity	629	(1)
Case 11.3 Demand for French Bread at Howie's	630	(1)
Case 11.4 Investing for Retirement	631	(2)
Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference	633	(70)
Introduction	635	(1)
The Statistical Model	635	(4)
Inferences About the Regression Coefficients	639	(10)
Multicollinearity	649	(3)
Include/Exclude Decisions	652	(5)
Stepwise Regression	657	(5)
The Partial F Test	662	(8)
Outliers	670	(6)
Violations of Regression Assumptions	676	(5)
Prediction	681	(5)
Conclusion	686	(17)
Case 12.1 The Artsy Corporation	697	(2)
Case 12.2 Heating Oil at Dupree Fuels Company	699	(1)
Case 12.3 Developing a Flexible Budget at the Gunderson Plant	700	(1)
Case 12.4 Forecasting Overhead at Wagner Printers	701	(2)
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting	703	(74)
Introduction	704	(1)
Forecasting Methods: An Overview	705	(6)
Testing for Randomness	711	(8)
Regression-Based Trend Models	719	(8)
The Random Walk Model	727	(4)
Autoregression Models	731	(5)
Moving Averages	736	(6)
Exponential Smoothing	742	(11)
Seasonal Models	753	(15)
Conclusion	768	(9)
Case 13.1 Arrivals at the Credit Union	774	(1)
Case 13.2 Forecasting Weekly Sales at Amanta	775	(2)
PART 5 Decision Modeling	777	(278)
Introduction to Optimization Modeling	779	(58)
Introduction	780	(1)
Introduction to Optimization	780	(2)
A Two-Variable Model	782	(11)
Sensitivity Analysis	793	(7)
Properties of Linear Models	800	(3)
Infeasibility and Unboundedness	803	(2)
A Product Mix Model	805	(9)
A Multiperiod Production Model	814	(9)
A Comparison of Algebraic and Spreadsheet Models	823	(1)
A Decision Support System	824	(2)
Conclusion	826	(11)
Appendix Information on Solvers	832	(1)
Case 14.1 Shelby Shelving	833	(2)
Case 14.2 Sonoma Valley Wines	835	(2)
Optimization Modeling: Applications	837	(98)
Introduction	838	(1)
Workforce Scheduling Models	839	(7)
Blending Models	846	(6)
Logistics Models	852	(18)
Aggregate Planning Models	870	(9)
Financial Models	879	(10)
Integer Programming Models	889	(19)
Nonlinear Models	908	(13)
Conclusion	921	(14)
Case 15.1 Giant Motor Company	928	(2)
Case 15.2 GMS Stock Hedging	930	(2)
Case 15.3 Durham Asset Management	932	(3)
Introduction to Simulation Modeling	935	(64)
Introduction	936	(1)
Real Applications of Simulation	937	(1)
Probability Distributions for Input Variables	938	(16)
Simulation with Built-In Excel Tools	954	(12)
Introduction to @ RISK	966	(15)
The Effects of Input Distributions on Results	981	(8)
Conclusion	989	(10)
Case 16.1 Ski Jacket Production	996	(1)
Case 16.2 Ebony Bath Soap	997	(2)
Simulation Models	999	(56)
Introduction	1000	(1)
Operations Models	1000	(14)
Financial Models	1014	(14)
Marketing Models	1028	(13)
Simulating Games of Chance	1041	(6)
Conclusion	1047	(8)
Case 17.1 College Fund Investment	1053	(1)
Case 17.2 Bond Investment Strategy	1054	(1)
Appendix A Statistical Reporting	1055	(19)
Introduction	1055	(1)
Suggestions for Good Statistical Reporting	1056	(5)
Examples of Statistical Reports	1061	(12)
Conclusion	1073	(1)
References	1074	(3)
Index	1077