Economic Conditions and Welfare Reform

by Danziger, Sheldon

• ISBN13: 9780880991995
• ISBN10: 0880991992
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-12-01
• Publisher: W E Upjohn Inst for

Table of Contents

The Authors	iii
Introduction	1	(14)
Sheldon Danziger
Reforming Welfare	1	(6)
Why Are Caseloads Falling?	7	(2)
How Are Recipients Faring?	9	(2)
How Are the States Responding?	11	(2)
Summary	13	(1)
Notes	14	(1)
References	14	(1)
Part I Why Are Caseloads Falling?	15	(144)
Welfare Reform, the Business Cycle, and the Decline in AFDC Caseloads	17	(32)
David N. Figlio
James P. Ziliak
Review of Caseload Literature	19	(5)
Reconciling the CEA and Ziliak et al.	24	(13)
What Will Happen to Recipiency Rates in the Next Recession?	37	(7)
Conclusion	44	(1)
Notes	45	(2)
References	47	(2)
What Goes Up Must Come Down?	49	(42)
Geoffrey Wallace
Rebecca M. Blank
Existing Research on Caseeload Change	52	(4)
Why Food Stamp Caseloads Are Also Interesting	56	(1)
Estimates of the Determinats of Both AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp Caseloads	57	(9)
How Well Do These Estimates Explain Both the Rise and Fall of Caseloads?	66	(6)
Cross-Checking These Estimates with Monthly Data	72	(12)
Conclusion	84	(2)
Notes	86	(2)
References	88	(3)
The Effect of Pre-PRWORA Waivers on AFDC Caseloads and Female Earnings, Income, and Labor Force Behavior	91	(28)
Robert A. Moffitt
Replicating the CEA Report Findings	94	(6)
Extending the Model to the CPS	100	(7)
Business Cycle Sensitivity	107	(6)
Conclusions	113	(1)
Notes	113	(3)
References	116	(3)
Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads	119	(40)
Timothy J. Bartik
Randall W. Eberts
Extension of State-Level Estimates	122	(14)
Results	136	(17)
Conclusion	153	(1)
Notes	154	(1)
References	155	(4)
Part II How Are Recipients Faring?	159	(60)
Work, Earnings, and Well-Being after Welfare	161	(26)
Maria Cancian
Robert Haveman
Thomas Kaplan
Daniel Meyer
Barbara Wolfe
Previous Studies of Postwelfare Economic Prospects	163	(1)
The Postwelfare Experience of AFDC Recipients---National Survey Data	164	(5)
The Postwelfare Experience in Wisconsin---Administrative Data	169	(7)
Studies of the Postwelfare Experience in Other States	176	(3)
Conclusion	179	(3)
Notes	182	(3)
References	185	(2)
Employer Demand for Welfare Recipients and the Business Cycle	187	(32)
Harry J. Holzer
The New Employer Data	189	(1)
Empirical Results	190	(15)
Conclusion	205	(6)
Notes	211	(4)
References	215	(4)
Part III How Are the States Responding?	219	(86)
What Will the States Do When Jobs Are Not Plentiful?	221	(28)
LaDonna A. Pavetti
Welfare Reform in a Robust Economy	221	(3)
Implementing Work-Based Reforms When Jobs Are More Scarce	224	(19)
Factors Affecting the Magnitude of the Policy and Implementation Challenges	243	(3)
Conclusion	246	(1)
Note	247	(1)
References	247	(2)
Cyclical Welfare Costs in the Post-Reform Era	249	(26)
Phillip B. Levine
How Much Does a Recession Cost?	251	(3)
Who Will Pay These Costs?	254	(4)
Financing Cyclical Costs in the Unemployment Insurance System	258	(1)
Historical Pattens of UI Trust Fund Adequacy	259	(4)
Are State UI Trust Funds Big Enough?	263	(5)
Discussion and Conclusions	268	(2)
Notes	270	(2)
References	272	(3)
The States, Welfare Reform, and the Business Cycle	275	(30)
Howard Chernick
Therese J. McGuire
Lessons from the Literature on Grants-in-Aid and Competition among Neighboring States	278	(14)
The Volatility of State Revenues and Expenditures over the Business Cycle	292	(6)
Conclusions and Future Research	298	(1)
Notes	299	(1)
References	300	(5)
Author Index	305	(4)
Subject Index	309