Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

by Edited by Richard W. Katz , Allan H. Murphy

• ISBN13: 9780521434201
• ISBN10: 0521434203
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1997-06-13
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix	(4)
Contributors	xiii
1. Weather prediction	1	(18)
Joseph J. Tribbia
1. History and introduction	1	(4)
2. The modern era	5	(3)
3. Finite predictability	8	(4)
4. The future	12	(7)
2. Forecast verification	19	(56)
Allan H. Murphy
1. Introduction	19	(2)
2. Conceptual and methodological framework	21	(17)
3. Absolute verification: methods and applications	38	(17)
4. Comparative verification: methods and applications	55	(9)
5. Other methods and measures	64	(3)
6. Forecast quality and forecast value	67	(3)
7. Conclusion	70	(5)
3. The value of weather information	75	(34)
Stanley R. Johnson
Matthew T. Holt
1. Introduction	75	(2)
2. Economics and the value of information	77	(11)
3. Review of selected value-of-information studies	88	(10)
4. Valuation puzzles	98	(5)
5. Concluding observations	103	(6)
4. Forecast value: prescriptive decision studies	109	(38)
Daniel S. Wilks
1. Introduction	109	(3)
2. Case study attributes	112	(12)
3. Case study tabulations	124	(16)
4. Concluding remarks	140	(7)
5. Forecast value: descriptive decision studies	147	(36)
Thomas R. Stewart
1. Introduction	147	(1)
2. Comparison of descriptive and prescriptive studies	147	(9)
3. Examples of descriptive studies	156	(12)
4. Factors that affect differences between descriptive and prescriptive models	168	(3)
5. Overview of descriptive modeling methods	171	(2)
6. Conclusion	173	(10)
6. Forecast value: prototype decision-making models	183	(36)
Richard W. Katz
Allan H. Murphy
1. Introduction	183	(1)
2. Concepts	184	(6)
3. Prototype decision-making models	190	(16)
4. Extensions	206	(7)
5. Implications	213	(1)
Appendix: Stochastic dynamic programming	214	(5)
Index	219