The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis

by Szayna, Thomas S.; Byman, Daniel L.; Bankes, Steven C.; Eaton, Derek; Jones, Seth G.

• ISBN13: 9780833030566
• ISBN10: 0833030566
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-11-14
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

A framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xvii
Introduction	1	(6)
Organization	3	(4)
The Rise of a Peer	7	(38)
What is a Peer Competitor?	7	(6)
Power	8	(1)
Motivations	9	(2)
Global Scale	11	(1)
Outcome in Doubt	12	(1)
The Proto-Peer's Strategies	13	(1)
The Reform Strategy	14	(6)
Characteristics	14	(1)
Policies and Institutions	15	(3)
The Nature of the Challenge	18	(2)
The Revolution Strategy	20	(10)
Characteristics of Political Revolutions	21	(4)
Characteristics of Military Revolutions	25	(5)
The Alliance Strategy	30	(7)
Characteristics	30	(3)
The Nature of the Threat	33	(4)
The Conquest Strategy	37	(8)
Characteristics	37	(1)
The Nature of the Challenge	38	(3)
Does Conquest Still Pay?	41	(4)
The Role of the Hegemon	45	(28)
The Hierarchy in the International State System	45	(9)
The Hegemon's Problem	49	(4)
The Hegemon's Strategies	53	(1)
The Conciliate Strategy	54	(3)
The Co-opt Strategy	57	(3)
The Constrain Strategy	60	(3)
The Compete Strategy	63	(2)
The Effect of Power Preponderance	65	(2)
Principal Rivalries	67	(6)
Modeling the Peer-Hegemon Relationship	73	(36)
The Decision Calculus	75	(3)
Modeling the Interaction Between a Proto-Peer and a Hegemon	78	(11)
Effect of Perceptual Errors	85	(4)
Identifying the Attributes that Lead to Competition and Rivalry	89	(16)
Final Observations and Caveats Regarding the Model	105	(4)
Further Development of the Model	107	(2)
Conclusions	109	(52)
Appendix
A. Decision Rules	113	(22)
B. Code for the Prototype Hegemon-Peer Model	135	(12)
C. The Democratic Peace Idea	147	(14)
Bibliography	161