Energy Security for the EU in the 21st Century: Markets, Geopolitics and Corridors

by Marfn Quemada; JosT Marfa

• ISBN13: 9780415676762
• ISBN10: 0415676762
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-11-29
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the security of energy supply and policies in the European Union, both across the continent as a whole and also within the differing member states, emphasizing the economic and geopolitical dimensions of energy security. A host of socio-economic and political risks accompany the supply of energy in Europe and the authors analyze these in quantitative and qualitative terms as well as the EU#xE2;#xAC;"s energy relations with countries outside the Union. In addition, the convergence of member states#xE2;#xAC;" energy security policies and their gradual Europeanization has led to the formation of energy corridors through which energy resources flow and alternative strategic scenarios in relation to energy risk are assessed. Explicit recommendations are made in order to minimize the negative impact of non-EU regions#xE2;#xAC;" competing demand for energy supply and to maximize the EU#xE2;#xAC;"s energy security.

Table of Contents

List of boxes	p. xii
List of figures	p. xiii
Lists of maps	p. xiv
List of tables	p. xv
List of contributors	p. xviii
List of abbreviations	p. xx
Introduction	p. 1
Energy, geopolitics and energy security: qualitative and quantitative analysis	p. 5
Global energy needs and resources: geographical imbalances and energy security	p. 7
World energy demand	p. 8
World energy production and reserves	p. 13
World energy flows	p. 17
Energy security, energy corridors and the geopolitical context: a conceptual approach	p. 26
Energy security: in search of an operational concept	p. 26
Physical, price and environmental components of energy security	p. 27
Objective determinants and country perception of energy security	p. 29
Energy corridors	p. 32
Energy security as a public good	p. 33
Energy dependence, vulnerability and the geopolitical context: a quantitative approach to energy security	p. 37
Simple indicators	p. 37
Composite indicators	p. 50
Competition and complementarity in the international energy markets: the EU's Energy Affinity Index	p. 54
The Energy Affinity Index	p. 54
Practical uses and limitations of the Energy Affinity Index	p. 56
Affinity and rivalry in the EU's energy relations	p. 57
Appendix	p. 63
Global policy scenarios and economic scenarios as tools for energy policy	p. 67
Definition of scenario and methodology of scenario analysis	p. 68
Global policy scenarios	p. 71
Economic scenarios	p. 78
Long-term energy policy scenarios for the world and the EU: a comparative analysis	p. 86
Shell energy scenarios to 2050	p. 86
Alternative scenarios of the IEA (WEO 2010)	p. 89
Scenarios of the World Energy Council	p. 91
The new energy policy of the EU	p. 94
Scenarios of the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP, 2007)	p. 95
Scenario comparison	p. 98
Socioeconomic energy risk: concept and estimation	p. 109
Risk theory applied to energy security: a typology of energy risks	p. 111
Risk theory and analysis	p. 111
Energy supply risk	p. 120
Estimating energy risk factors	p. 128
Variables for the estimation of socioeconomic energy risk factors	p. 132
Quantifying geopolitical energy risks: the Socioeconomic Energy Risk Index	p. 144
The basics of factor analysis	p. 144
The use of factor analysis to estimate socioeconomic energy risk	p. 146
Quality, summary and interpretation of results	p. 148
Socioeconomic energy risk in the EU-27	p. 152
	p. 156
	p. 162
	p. 166
Using the Socioeconomic Energy Risk Index: aggregation by corridors, energy models and scenario building	p. 170
SERI aggregation by corridors	p. 171
A case study of socioeconomic risk aggregation in energy corridors: the Spanish case	p. 175
Uses of socioeconomic energy risk estimates in energy modelling and scenario building	p. 181
	p. 186
	p. 188
Energy security and energy policy convergence in the EU	p. 193
Energy security of supply and EU energy policy	p. 195
First steps of the EU's energy policy	p. 196
From the 2000 to the 2006 Green Paper and the '20-20-20' goal	p. 197
The Strategic Energy Review (2007)	p. 201
Defining goals and strategies for 2020	p. 204
Appendix	p. 209
The Europeanization of EU member states' energy security policies: convergence patterns	p. 210
The Europeanization approach to energy security	p. 212
Measuring convergence in the EU's energy security drivers	p. 213
Concluding remarks	p. 227
Guidelines for a European energy security policy	p. 232
National sovereignty vs acting with 'one voice': effects on energy security	p. 233
The EU's soft power and energy security	p. 237
Lines of action and guidelines for an EU energy security policy	p. 243
New strategies for the EU's energy security policy	p. 249
Socioeconomic energy risk and energy affinity: defining strategies for the EU	p. 251
Energy affinity and socioeconomic energy risk: a new method for analysing the EU's energy security	p. 251
Analysis of the EU's geopolitical interests: introducing a new tool for energy policy	p. 253
Final remarks	p. 268
Appendix	p. 270
A new strategy: the Europeanization of energy corridors to the EU	p. 276
The strategy of Europeanizing energy corridors and the EU's initiatives	p. 276
Energy security preferences under uncertainty and the corridor's strategy	p. 289
Appendix	p. 293
Renewable energy corridors and European energy security	p. 297
Renewables and energy security	p. 298
Cross-border RES flows and energy security	p. 303
European renewable energy corridors: the case of the Mediterranean Solar Plan	p. 305
References	p. 312
Index	p. 323
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