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9780833040176

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation Theory and Experiments

by ; ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780833040176

  • ISBN10:

    0833040170

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2007-04-16
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Purchase Benefits
List Price: $30.00

Summary

Extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of the possibility space. Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particular approach to MSG, and two experiments using MSG are described, one starting with a reasonable but untested analytical model, the other starting without a model but with a list of distinguishing conditions.

Table of Contents

Introductionp. 1
A preliminary theory for using massive scenario generationp. 9
Experiment one : exploratory analysis with an epidemiological model of Islamist extremismp. 25
Experiment two : exploratory analysis starting without a modelp. 43
Conclusionsp. 53
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

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