Environmental Risk Assessment

by Lerche, Ian; Glaesser, Walter

• ISBN13: 9783540262497
• ISBN10: 3540262490
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-03-31
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

This book deals with environmental and human risk problems caused by contamination from the perspective of real world applications with quantitative procedures. It includes risk methods for the discussion of environmental problems where data are sparse or fuzzy, as well as incorporating political, social and economic considerations in determining directions of remediation solutions for environmental contaminant problems. Furthermore, it highlights the impact of contaminants on human health, in some cases ultimately leading to death, as well as the anthropogenic exacerbation of natural processes.

Author Biography

Walter Glaesser is Professor of Geology at the University of Leipzig. Ian Lerche is currently DAAD Visiting Professor of Geology at the University of Leipzig.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Natural and Anthropogenic Environmental Problems	1	(20)
Summary	1	(1)
Introduction	1	(1)
Natural Environmental Problems	2	(16)
Anthropogenic Environmental Problems	3	(1)
Examples of anthropogenic environmental problems	4	(1)
Air	4	(1)
Water	4	(1)
Foodstuffs	5	(2)
Land Use	7	(2)
Mineral and Thermal Pollution	9	(1)
Population as an environmental problem	10	(1)
War	11	(1)
Resources and Environmental Issues	12	(1)
Natural resources, depletion and waste	12	(1)
Human resources and waste	13	(1)
Entrepreneurial developments	14	(1)
Business	14	(1)
Political	15	(1)
Religious	15	(1)
National	16	(1)
Capital	17	(1)
Remediation of Environmental Problems	18	(1)
Population and behavior	18	(1)
Particular environmental remediation concerns	18	(1)
Prevention/Remediation	19	(1)
Rules for addressing environmental problems	19	(2)
Restoration of lignite mining sites in the former GDR: lessons to be learnt from Zwenkau	21	(12)
Summary	21	(1)
Introduction	21	(2)
Methods	23	(1)
Results and Discussion	24	(7)
Technical Conclusion	31	(1)
A Legacy for the Future?	32	(1)
Carbon Dioxide Development and the Influence of Rising Groundwater in the Cospuden/Zwenkau Dump:Observations and Inferences	33	(16)
Summary	33	(1)
Introduction	34	(1)
Methods and Measurements	35	(10)
Results	37	(1)
Investigations of the Dump Materials	37	(1)
The subsurface air	38	(3)
Measurements of the Out-gassing Rate	41	(1)
Lysometer Investigations	42	(1)
Discussion	43	(2)
Discussion and Conclusions	45	(4)
Carbon Dioxide Development and the Influence of Rising Groundwater in the Cospuden/Zwenkau Dump: Quantitative Models	49	(18)
Summary	49	(1)
Introduction	50	(3)
Quantitative Methods	53	(2)
Model Behaviors	55	(8)
Group A Models	55	(1)
Variable Available Carbon Dioxide	55	(1)
Seasonal Temperature Effects	56	(1)
Variable Lake Level Effects	57	(1)
Group B Models	58	(1)
Leak Efficiency	58	(2)
Lake Level Rise	60	(1)
Available Carbon Dioxide	61	(1)
Variable Temperature Effects	62	(1)
Discussion and Conclusion	63	(4)
Appendix 1. Carbon Dioxide Program	65	(2)
Environmental and Economic Risks from Sinkholes in West-Central Florida	67	(14)
Summary	67	(1)
Introduction	67	(1)
Sinkhole Formation and Occurrence	68	(6)
General Remarks	68	(1)
Activities Accelerating Sinkhole Expansion	69	(1)
Natural Causes	69	(1)
Anthropogenic Causes	70	(1)
Sinkhole Warning Signs	70	(1)
Sinkhole Data and Inferences	70	(4)
Housing Densities and Economic Risk	74	(4)
Putting Sinkholes in Perspective	78	(3)
Risks of Damage from Flooding Rivers: Correlation of Weakened Dyke Structures	81	(16)
Summary	81	(1)
Introduction	81	(1)
Damage and Probability	82	(3)
Independent and Correlated Behavior	84	(1)
MacKay's Argument applied to independent dyke collapse	84	(1)
MacKay's Argument applied to fully correlated dykes	85	(1)
Modifications to the Independent versus Correlated Situations	85	(3)
Uncertainties and Correlations	88	(6)
Uncertainty in the Probability of Correlated Behavior	88	(1)
Parameter Uncertainties for each Dyke for Fixed Distributions	89	(3)
Non-Uniform Distribution Choices	92	(2)
Uncertainties due to Dynamic Range and Centering Effects	94	(1)
Discussion and Conclusion	94	(3)
Biological Remediation of Environmentally Contaminated Water	97	(32)
Summary	97	(1)
Introduction	97	(2)
Quantitative Steady-State Models in One Dimension	99	(12)
Steady-State Model Construction	100	(2)
Special Cases of Steady-state Model Behaviors in the Absence of Diffusion	102	(1)
No diffusion, solid attachment, no death rate	102	(1)
No diffusion, solid attachment, finite death rate	103	(2)
No diffusion, fluid attachment, no death rate	105	(2)
No diffusion, fluid attachment, finite death rate	107	(1)
Diffusive Models in the Steady-State Limit	108	(1)
Fluid Dominated Biological Behavior	109	(1)
Sediment-tied Biological Activity	110	(1)
Illustrative Patterns of Behavior	111	(4)
No diffusion, solid attachment, no death rate	112	(1)
No diffusion, solid attachment, finite death rate	112	(1)
No diffusion, fluid attachment, no death rate	113	(1)
No diffusion, fluid attachment, finite death rate	114	(1)
Comparison with Observations at the Organic Depository, Halle-Kanena	115	(6)
Model 1: No diffusion, solid attachment, no death rate	119	(1)
Model 2: No diffusion, fluid attachment, no death rate	120	(1)
Uncertainties and Sensitivity	121	(3)
Uniform Distribution for R	122	(1)
Triangular Distribution for R	123	(1)
Discussion and Conclusion	124	(5)
Appendix 1. Solutions of Equation (7.12b)	125	(1)
Appendix 2. Solutions of Equation (7.19b)	126	(3)
Heavy Metal Contamination Removal by Bacterial Activity in Seeping Depositories	129	(22)
Summary	129	(1)
Introduction	129	(2)
Quantitative Development	131	(8)
Non-Adaptive Bacterial Properties	133	(3)
Adaptive Bacterial Properties	136	(2)
Higher Birth Rate, k*/a=3	138	(1)
Lower Birth Rate, k*/a=-3	138	(1)
East German Case History: Observations at the Organic Depository, Halle-Kanena	139	(9)
Discussion and Conclusion	148	(3)
Quantitative Risks of Death and Sickness from Toxic Contamination: General Population	151	(60)
Summary	151	(1)
Introduction	151	(4)
Toxic Model Construction	155	(1)
Numerical Illustrations of Deterministic Sickness and Death Rates	156	(11)
Uncertainty and Risking of Toxic Hazard Death and Sickness Rates	167	(23)
Uniform Distributions, Aggressive Synergism	169	(5)
Triangular Distributions, Aggressive Synergism	174	(8)
Uniform Distributions, Benign Synergism	182	(8)
Discussion and Conclusion	190	(21)
Appendix A Approximate Risk Measures	191	(6)
Appendix B Some Properties of a Log Normal Distribution	197	(1)
Exact Statements	197	(2)
Approximate Statements	199	(1)
Multiple Parameter Distributions	200	(2)
Appendix C. Relative Importance, Relative Contributions, and Relative Sensitivity Definitions	202	(3)
Appendix D. Excel Program for Toxic Death and Sickness Calculations	205	(6)
Quantitative Risks of Death and Sickness from Toxic Contamination: Age-Dependent Toxic Sickness/Death Exposure Limits	211	(22)
Summary	211	(1)
Introduction	211	(2)
Specific TAC and CSC Effects for One Toxic Material/Multiple Illnesses	213	(7)
Age, Population Distribution and Gender Effects	220	(6)
Age Effects	220	(1)
Population Age Distribution Effects	221	(5)
Gender Effects	226	(1)
Relative Importance of Hazards and Risks	226	(2)
Discussion and Conclusion	228	(5)
Appendix A. TAC and CSC Fractions Used	229	(2)
Appendix B. Minimum TAC Values marking the shift between Age Groups	231	(2)
Methods for Estimating Associated Risks of Sinkhole Occurrence with data from the Ruhr Valley Region of Germany	233	(20)
Summary	233	(1)
Introduction	234	(3)
Geological Knowledge, Statistics and Properties	237	(8)
Geological Background	238	(1)
Statistics	239	(3)
Properties	242	(3)
Probability Estimates of Sinkhole Occurrences	245	(6)
Illustration 1	246	(2)
Illustration 2	248	(1)
Illustration 3	249	(1)
Illustration 4	250	(1)
Discussion and Conclusion	251	(2)
Environmental Concerns: Catastrophic Events and Insurance	253	(24)
Summary	253	(1)
Introduction	254	(3)
Catastrophic Loss Assessment	257	(4)
Catastrophic Loss After a Tunnel is in Operation	261	(2)
Insurance Against Catastrophic Events	263	(9)
General Catastrophic Loss Conditions	265	(1)
Mathematical Considerations	265	(3)
Numerical Illustrations	268	(1)
Insurance Coverage After Oil is Found	269	(1)
General Considerations	269	(2)
Numerical Illustration	271	(1)
Insurance Against the Chance of Potential Regulatory Changes	272	(2)
Discussion and Conclusion	274	(3)
Integrated Scientific and Economic Uncertainties in Environmental Hazard Assessments: Social and Political Consequences	277	(52)
Summary	277	(1)
Introduction	277	(3)
Scientific Uncertainties	280	(3)
Economic Uncertainties	283	(3)
Simple Economic Considerations	286	(2)
Inclusion of Economic Uncertainties in Project Considerations	288	(4)
Parameter Uncertainty Effects	292	(4)
Means and Variances	293	(2)
Relative Importance	295	(1)
Relative Contribution of Uncertain Parameters in Subsurface Hydrology	296	(11)
Introduction	296	(1)
Physical Problem	297	(4)
Theoretical Framework	301	(3)
Results and Discussion	304	(1)
Conclusions	305	(2)
Bayesian Decision Criteria	307	(14)
Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decision	307	(5)
Expected Opportunity Loss	312	(3)
Influence of the length of the observation record on decision-making	315	(1)
Influence of the form of the loss function on decision-making	316	(5)
Conclusions	321	(1)
Political Decisions	322	(3)
Social Bias and Social Consequences	325	(1)
Conclusions	326	(3)
References	329	(12)
Index	341