Exploring And Shaping International Futures

by Hughes,Barry B.

• ISBN13: 9781594512322
• ISBN10: 1594512329
• Format: Nonspecific Binding
• Copyright: 2006-02-15
• Publisher: Paradigm Publishing

Summary

What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book in the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at: www.ifs.du.edu

Table of Contents

List of Tables and Figures	ix
List of Acronyms	xiii
Preface	xv
Acknowledgments	xvii
Chapter 1 Action in the Face of Uncertainty	1	(6)
The Three Questions Elaborated,	2	(2)
How Should Our Study Proceed?	4	(3)
Chapter 2 Global Change	7	(40)
Types of Change,	8	(38)
Conclusion,	46	(1)
Chapter 3 Values and Understandings	47	(14)
Values and Goals,	47	(3)
Causal Analysis,	50	(3)
Causal Understandings and Worldviews,	53	(6)
Conclusion,	59	(2)
Chapter 4 Understanding and Using IFs	61	(22)
Use of IFs I: Data Analysis and Display,	63	(8)
Use of IFs II: Undertaking Scenario Analysis,	71	(7)
Elements of the Model,	78	(4)
Conclusion,	82	(1)
Chapter 5 Population	83	(15)
Population Dynamics and Leverage,	88	(4)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	92	(5)
Conclusion,	97	(1)
Chapter 6 Economics	98	(28)
Economic Dynamics and Leverage,	104	(10)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	114	(10)
Conclusion,	124	(2)
Chapter 7 Food and Agriculture	126	(11)
Food and Agriculture Dynamics and Leverage,	129	(5)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	134	(2)
Conclusion,	136	(1)
Chapter 8 Energy	137	(12)
Energy Dynamics and Leverage,	141	(2)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	143	(4)
Conclusion,	147	(2)
Chapter 9 The Environment	149	(12)
Environmental Dynamics and Leverage,	152	(3)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	155	(5)
Conclusion,	160	(1)
Chapter 10 Domestic Social and Political Systems	161	(17)
Sociopolitical Dynamics and Leverage,	170	(4)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	174	(3)
Conclusion,	177	(1)
Chapter 11 The Global Sociopolitical System	178	(18)
Global System Dynamics and Leverage Points,	182	(6)
Interventions and Scenario Analysis,	188	(6)
Conclusion,	194	(2)
Chapter 12 Preferred Futures	196	(14)
Contemporary Global Transformations,	197	(1)
Integrated Global Scenarios,	198	(5)
Integrated Scenarios: Common Elements,	203	(4)
Creating Futures by Making Choices,	207	(3)
Appendix 1: The Philosophical Approach to Modeling	210	(3)
Appendix 2: History and Future of IFs	213	(2)
Glossary	215	(4)
References	219	(10)
Index	229