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Preface | p. ix |
Acknowledgements | p. xi |
List of abbreviations | p. xiii |
Introduction: Why do we Need Ecosystem-Level Models as Decision-Support Tools in Forestry? | p. 1 |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Human population growth: the ultimate environmental threat to the world's forests | p. 2 |
The failure of science to provide the necessary analytical and forecasting tools for resource management: the question of complexity and prediction | p. 5 |
Complexity and prediction in forestry: levels of biological organization and integration | p. 9 |
The role of process-based, ecosystem-level hybrid simulation models as a component of the solution to problems posed by complexity in forestry | p. 11 |
Take-home message | p. 14 |
Additional material | p. 14 |
Notes | p. 14 |
Ecological and Environmental Concepts that should be Addressed in Forestry Decision-Support Tools | p. 17 |
Introduction | p. 17 |
The problem of uncritical use of, or failure to define, terms commonly used in environmental debates about forestry: the dangers posed by the anthropomorphizing of ecosystems | p. 18 |
Ecosystem stability | p. 22 |
Ecosystem resilience | p. 33 |
Ecosystem health | p. 35 |
Forest ecosystem integrity | p. 37 |
Are ecosystems 'complex adaptive systems'? | p. 39 |
Old growth | p. 40 |
Dangers of the misuse of terminology: feeding inappropriate belief systems | p. 42 |
Take-home message | p. 43 |
Additional material | p. 43 |
Hybrid Simulation in the Context of Other Classes of Forest Models, and the Development of the FORECAST Family of Hybrid Simulation Models | p. 45 |
Introduction | p. 45 |
A three-level classification of models | p. 45 |
Brief history of the development of these three categories | p. 48 |
The FORECAST-HORIZON family of hybrid simulation models | p. 52 |
Major categories of hybrid simulation models we have developed | p. 53 |
Take-home message | p. 57 |
Additional material | p. 57 |
Forestry in Transition: The Need for Individual Tree Models | p. 59 |
Introduction | p. 59 |
The ideal individual tree model | p. 60 |
Individual tree models as management tools | p. 65 |
FORCEE: a comprehensive, spatially explicit, individual tree management and agroforestry model | p. 69 |
Take-home message | p. 76 |
Additional material | p. 77 |
Stand-Level Hybrid Models as Tools to Support Ecosystem-Based Management | p. 79 |
Introduction | p. 79 |
Classification of stand-level hybrid models | p. 81 |
Description of the hybrid modelling approach employed in FORECAST | p. 82 |
Overview of FORECAST evaluation studies | p. 88 |
Applications of FORECAST | p. 101 |
Development of FORECAST Climate | p. 115 |
Take-home message | p. 117 |
Additional material | p. 118 |
Landscape-Level Models in Forest Management | p. 121 |
Introduction | p. 121 |
Development of landscape-level models for forest management | p. 122 |
The LLEMS model: a multi-value, local landscape extension of FORECAST for variable retention harvesting | p. 126 |
Example application of LLEMS to evaluate dispersed retention alternatives | p. 132 |
Ongoing development | p. 134 |
Take-home message | p. 135 |
Additional material | p. 135 |
Educational Models in Forest Management | p. 137 |
Introduction | p. 137 |
The use of ecological models as educational tools | p. 143 |
FORTOON: a high-school-level, introductory, multiple-value forest management game | p. 147 |
PFF: Possible Forest Futures | p. 151 |
Multiple run manager for FORECAST | p. 152 |
Take-home message | p. 153 |
Additional material | p. 154 |
How to Develop a Model for Forest Management | p. 155 |
Introduction | p. 155 |
Basic steps to develop a model of forest management | p. 162 |
Uncertainty and complexity in model development | p. 183 |
Take-home message | p. 191 |
Additional material | p. 191 |
Note | p. 191 |
The Role of Ecosystem Management Models in Adaptive Management, Certification and Land Reclamation | p. 193 |
Introduction | p. 193 |
The role of forest ecosystem management models in adaptive management | p. 194 |
The need for credible forecasts of possible forecasts of possible forest futures as an essential component of forest certification | p. 200 |
Ecosystem management models in reclamation planning | p. 207 |
Take-home message | p. 210 |
Additional material | p. 211 |
Note | p. 211 |
Future Perspectives in Hybrid Modelling | p. 213 |
Introduction | p. 213 |
Linking forest management models that work at different scales | p. 214 |
Using hybrid models and visualizations to communicate with the general public | p. 216 |
Take-home message | p. 235 |
Additional material | p. 236 |
Notes | p. 236 |
References | p. 237 |
Index | p. 273 |
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The Used, Rental and eBook copies of this book are not guaranteed to include any supplemental materials. Typically, only the book itself is included. This is true even if the title states it includes any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.