The Great Deleveraging Economic Growth and Investing Strategies for the Future

by Dickson, Chip; Shenkar, Oded

• ISBN13: 9780132358101
• ISBN10: 0132358107
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2010-08-11
• Publisher: Ft Pr

Summary

In the wake of massive debt creation, historyrs"s greatest deleveraging is now underway. The next decade will be brutal.The Great Deleveragingwill help you navigate the coming years, distinguish between "fake" growth and the real thing, and earn solid returns in markets and sectors poised for sustainable growth.

Author Biography

Chip Dickson is a cofounder, Director of Research, and Strategist of DISCERN, an equity research firm. This follows a Wall Street career of twenty years as an Equity Analyst, Strategist, and Associate Director of Research. The firms he worked at included Lehman Brothers and Salomon Smith Barney. His work received high rankings from Institutional Investor and Greenwich Associates. He earned his MBA and BSBA from Babson College and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

 

Oded Shenkar holds degrees in East-Asian (Chinese) Studies and Sociology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a PhD from Columbia University. He is currently the Ford Motor Company Chair in Global Business Management and Professor of Management and Human Resources at the Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University, where he heads the international business area and is also a member of the Centers for Chinese Studies and for Near East Studies. Professor Shenkar has been a Senior Fellow at the University of Cambridge and has taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Peking University, University of International Business and Economics (Beijing), and the International University of Japan, among many others.

 

Professor Shenkar has published close to a hundred articles in leading journals. His books include The Chinese Century (Wharton School Publishing), which has been translated into twelve languages, and Copycats: how smart companies use imitation to gain a strategic edge (Harvard Business Press). His work has been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The Chicago Tribune, The Boston Globe, Business Week, The Economist, and many others.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. 1
Five Major Events Driving Globalization	p. 3
The Great Leveraging	p. 15
Sources and Forces of the Debt Expansion	p. 23
Sources and Endnotes	p. 41
Growth Realities	p. 43
Cycles	p. 44
A Strong Private Sector Is a Must	p. 51
Concentration, Dispersion, and Diversification	p. 57
Nine Decades of Real Asset Class Returns	p. 63
Nine Decades of Real Returns for Eight Asset Classes	p. 64
1920s and Before	p. 67
1930s	p. 71
1940s	p. 77
1950s	p. 79
1960s	p. 83
1970s	p. 87
1980s	p. 90
1990s	p. 94
The 2000s	p. 96
Endnotes	p. 100
Global Economic Growth	p. 101
The United States Emerges as the Leading Global Economy	p. 103
Demographic and Other Shifts	p. 105
Per Capita Growth	p. 107
Endnotes	p. 123
Bull and Bear Markets	p. 125
Characteristics of an Equity Bull Market	p. 126
Characteristics of an Equity Bear Market	p. 127
The Great Bull Markets	p. 129
A New Beginning and the End of the Malaise: 1982-1987	p. 134
The Information Age, a Peace Dividend, and Y2K: 1990-2000	p. 136
The Big Bear Markets	p. 138
Global Growth Drivers	p. 151
Leveraging Comparative Advantage	p. 157
Analyzing National Environments	p. 157
International Market Features	p. 159
Three Emerging Countries	p. 167
China	p. 167
India	p. 173
Israel	p. 179
Private Sector Composition	p. 183
Company Characteristics	p. 184
The Sectors and the Industry Groups	p. 185
Endnotes	p. 203
Industry Evolution	p. 205
The Growth of the Financial Services Sector	p. 212
Industry Trends and Challenges	p. 218
Endnotes	p. 231
The Great Deleveraging	p. 233
The Last Deleveraging: 1930-1953	p. 236
The Next Deleveraging	p. 239
Nonfinancial Corporations	p. 243
Market Signals	p. 253
Valuation	p. 253
Prior Returns	p. 257
Interest Rates and Valuation	p. 262
Interest Rate Spreads	p. 266
Liquidity Metrics	p. 268
Gold and the Dollar	p. 271
Conclusion	p. 273
Rules of the Road	p. 275
Know Your Financial Self	p. 278
Build a Personal Balance Sheet	p. 280
Understand Your Appetite for Risk	p. 282
Develop a Saving Discipline	p. 283
Preserve Principal	p. 284
Develop a Spending Discipline	p. 285
Diversify the Portfolio	p. 289
Identify the Market Phase-Structural Bull Market or Structural Bear Market	p. 292
Apply Basic Investment Disciplines	p. 294
Have a Sell Discipline	p. 296
Education, Get More	p. 297
The Goal Is to Beat Your Financial Benchmark	p. 300
Endnotes	p. 304
Index	p. 305
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