Handbook of Capture-recapture Analysis

by Amstrup, Steven C.; Mcdonald, Trent L.; Manly, Bryan F. J.

• ISBN13: 9780691089683
• ISBN10: 069108968X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-10-31
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

Every day, biologists in parkas, raincoats, and rubber boots go into the field to capture and mark a variety of animal species. Back in the office, statisticians create analytical models for the field biologists' data. But many times, representatives of the two professions do not fully understand one another's roles. This book bridges this gap by helping biologists understand state-of-the-art statistical methods for analyzing capture-recapture data. In so doing, statisticians will also become more familiar with the design of field studies and with the real-life issues facing biologists. Reliable outcomes of capture-recapture studies are vital to answering key ecological questions. Is the population increasing or decreasing? Do more or fewer animals have a particular characteristic? In answering these questions, biologists cannot hope to capture and mark entire populations. And frequently, the populations change unpredictably during a study. Thus, increasingly sophisticated models have been employed to convert data into answers to ecological questions. This book, by experts in capture-recapture analysis, introduces the most up-to-date methods for data analysis while explaining the theory behind those methods. Thorough, concise, and portable, it will be immensely useful to biologists, biometricians, and statisticians, students in both fields, and anyone else engaged in the capture-recapture process.

Author Biography

Steven C. Amstrup researches bears and their ecosystems. His interests include distribution and movement patterns as well as wildlife population dynamics. Trent L. McDonald is a statistician and project manager with Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. and Adjunct Professor of Statistics at the University of Wyoming. Bryan F. J. Manly is the author of several books on the statistics of natural selection, multivariate analysis, resource selection by animals, research study designs, computer-intensive statistics, and environmental statistics.

Table of Contents

List of Illustrations	ix
List of Tables	xi
Preface	xvii
Introduction to the Handbook	1	(21)
Bryan F. J. Manly
Trent L. McDonald
Steven C. Amstrup
Introduction	1	(2)
Overview of Chapters 2 to 8	3	(6)
Maximum Likelihood with Capture--Recapture Methods	9	(8)
Model Selection Procedures	17	(2)
Notation	19	(3)
Classical Closed-population Capture--Recapture Models	22	(14)
Anne Chao
Richard M. Huggins
Introduction	22	(1)
Structure of Capture--Recapture Experiments and Data	23	(3)
Early Models and Estimators	26	(8)
Limitations of Early Models and the Motivation for More General Models	34	(1)
Chapter Summary	35	(1)
Classical Open-population Capture--Recapture Models	36	(22)
Kenneth H. Pollock
Russell Alpizar-Jara
Introduction	36	(2)
The Original Jolly-Seber Model	38	(6)
The Jolly-Seber Likelihood Components	44	(1)
Restrictions and Generalizations of the Jolly-Seber Model	45	(1)
Age-dependent Models	46	(1)
Goodness-of-Fit and Model Selection Issues	47	(1)
Examples	48	(7)
Conclusions	55	(1)
Chapter Summary	55	(3)
Modern Closed-population Capture--Recapture Models	58	(30)
Anne Chao
Richard M. Huggins
Introduction	58	(1)
Discrete-time Models with Unequal Catchabilities	58	(20)
Continuous-time Models	78	(7)
Computing Considerations	85	(1)
Chapter Summary	86	(2)
Modern Open-population Capture--Recapture Models	88	(36)
James D. Nichols
Introduction	88	(1)
Conditional Single-age Models	89	(13)
Conditional Multiple-age Models	102	(5)
Reverse-time Models	107	(2)
Unconditional Models	109	(7)
The Robust Design	116	(4)
Discussion	120	(1)
Chapter Summary	121	(3)
Tag-recovery Models	124	(18)
John M. Hoenig
Kenneth H. Pollock
William Hearn
Introduction	124	(4)
Assumptions of Brownie Models	128	(1)
Interpretation of the Tag-recovery Rate Parameter	128	(3)
Functional Linkage Between the Exploitation Rate and the Survival Rate	131	(1)
Instantaneous Rate Models for Estimating Harvest and Natural Mortality	131	(1)
Diagnostics and Tests of Assumptions	132	(2)
Preventing and Dealing with Failures of Assumptions	134	(6)
Chapter Summary	140	(2)
Joint Modeling of Tag-recovery and Live-resighting Data	142	(23)
Richard J. Barker
Introduction	142	(2)
Data Structure	144	(1)
Simple Models	145	(11)
More General Models	156	(1)
Model Fitting and Assessment	157	(4)
Tag Misreads and Tag Loss	161	(1)
Computing Considerations	161	(2)
Chapter Summary	163	(2)
Multistate Models	165	(31)
Carl J. Schwarz
Introduction	165	(1)
The Arnason-Schwarz Model	166	(11)
The Jolly-Seber Approach	177	(10)
Multisample Stratified Closed Populations	187	(5)
Multisample Stratified Open Populations	192	(2)
Chapter Summary	194	(2)
Examples	196	(70)
Trent L. McDonald
Steven C. Amstrup
Eric V. Regehr
Bryan F. J. Manly
Introduction	196	(2)
Open-population Analyses of Data on the European Dipper	198	(33)
The Huggins Closed-population Model Applied to the European Dipper Data	231	(5)
Assessing Goodness-of-Fit	236	(5)
Horvitz-Thompson Open-population Size Estimates	241	(4)
A Multistate (Multistrata) Model	245	(2)
Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea	247	(7)
Dead Recoveries of Mallard Ducks	254	(9)
Chapter Summary	263	(3)
Capture--Recapture Methods in Practice	266	(9)
Bryan F. J. Manly
Steven C. Amstrup
Trent L. McDonald
Introduction	266	(1)
Closed-population Models	266	(1)
Open-population Models	267	(2)
Tag-recovery Models	269	(1)
Other Models	270	(1)
Model Selection	271	(1)
Known Ages	272	(3)
Appendix	275	(6)
A.1 Capability Matrix for Common Capture--Recapture Software Packages	275	(2)
A.2 General and Contact Information for Common Capture--Recapture Software Packages Listed in Table A.1	277	(4)
References	281	(20)
Contributor's Notes	301	(2)
Index	303