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How Terrorism Ends - Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

by
ISBN13:

9780691152394

ISBN10:
069115239X
Format:
Paperback
Pub. Date:
8/8/2011
Publisher(s):
Princeton Univ Pr

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Summary

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. InHow Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda.This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion.How Terrorism Endsis the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical.

Author Biography

Audrey Kurth Cronin is professor of strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington, DC, and senior associate in the Changing Character of War program at the University of Oxford. She is the author of Ending Terrorism: Lessons for Defeating al-Qaeda and the coauthor of Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgmentsp. xi
Abbreviationsp. xv
Introductionp. 1
The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threatp. 3
A Word About Scope and Termsp. 6
The Conceptual Frameworkp. 7
Case Selectionp. 8
Overview of Chaptersp. 9
Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leaderp. 14
what decapitation Meansp. 16
The Arrest of Top Leadersp. 17
Abimael Guzman and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)p. 18
Abdullah Ocalan and the Kurdistan Workers' Partyp. 20
Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Armyp. 22
Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyop. 23
Assassination or "Targeted Killing"p. 24
The Philippines' Abu Sayyafp. 27
Russia and Chechen Leadersp. 28
Israel's "Targeted Killings"p. 29
How Decapitation Ends Terrorismp. 31
Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Processp. 35
why Government Negotiatep. 36
Why Groups Negotiatep. 39
Case Studies of Negotiationsp. 42
The Northern Ireland Peace Processp. 42
Analysis of the Agreementp. 47
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Processp. 48
Terrorism and the Talksp. 55
The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers)p. 57
Analysis of the Failurep. 61
Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiationp. 62
Stalematep. 63
Strong Leadershipp. 64
Sponsorsp. 65
Suicide Campaignsp. 66
Splinteringp. 67
Spoilersp. 69
Setting and Storyp. 70
How Negotiations End Terrorismp. 71
Success: Achieving the Objectivep. 73
What Does "Success" Mean?p. 74
Survivalp. 75
Achievement of Objectivesp. 77
Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goalsp. 77
Ending Terrorism: Strategic or"Outcome" Goalsp. 80
Cases of Successp. 82
Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL)p. 82
The African National Congress and Umkhontop. 85
Other Notable Casesp. 89
How Success Ends Terrorismp. 91
Conclusionp. 92
Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalizedp. 94
Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapsep. 95
Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generationp. 95
Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups In The 1970Sp. 97
Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups In The 1990Sp. 98
Infighting and Fractionalizationp. 100
Loss of Operational Controlp. 102
Accepting an Exitp. 103
Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Supportp. 104
The Ideology Becomes Irrelevantp. 105
Loss of Contact with "the People"p. 107
Targeting Errors and Backlashp. 108
How Failure Ends Terrorismp. 110
Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Forcep. 115
Analyzing The Strategies of Terrorismp. 117
Case Studies of Repressionp. 122
Russia and Narodnaya Volyap. 123
Peru and Sendero Luminosop. 125
Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Partyp. 128
Uruguay and the Tupamarosp. 129
Russia and Chechnyap. 131
Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966p. 137
How Repression Ends Terrorismp. 141
Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandip. 146
Criminality and Terrorismp. 148
Colombia and the FARCp. 149
The Philippines and Abu Sayyafp. 152
Insurgency and Terrorismp. 153
Algeria and the G1Ap. 155
Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major Warp. 157
India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groupsp. 159
Outdates Paradigms, Practical Implicationsp. 162
How War Ends Terrorismp. 166
How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of Historyp. 167
Is Al-Qaeda Unique?p. 168
Resilient Structurep. 169
Methods of Radicalization and Recruitmentp. 171
Means of Supportp. 174
Means of Communicationp. 175
The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Frameworkp. 177
Decapitation:Capturing or Killing the Leadersp. 177
Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associatesp. 179
Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectivesp. 182
Failure through Implosionp. 183
Failure through Diminishment of Popular Supportp. 187
Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Forcep. 190
Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Meansp. 191
Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demisep. 193
Conclusionp. 197
Understanding How Terrorism Endsp. 201
Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaignsp. 207
Notesp. 223
Selected Bibliographyp. 283
Indexp. 297
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.


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