Intelligence Analysis : A Target-Centric Approach

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  • Edition: 4th
  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 10/5/2012
  • Publisher: Cq Pr

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Due to the ever-evolving tactics of our enemies, the American intelligence community has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the end-user. Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new fourth edition accounts for recent events and is rife with new examples throughout. Brand new and significantly revised coverage includes chapters on managing the analytic unit, analytic methodologies, and the analytic spectrum, bringing a heightened level of clarity to this outstanding, must-have resource. Clark's practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.

Table of Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxesp. xii
Prefacep. xvi
Introductionp. xix
Why We Failp. xix
Failure to Share Informationp. xx
Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectivelyp. xxi
Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligencep. xxii
What the Book Is Aboutp. xxiii
Summaryp. xxiv
Introduction to Target-Centric Analysisp. 1
The Intelligence Processp. 1
The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflictp. 3
The Traditional Intelligence Cyclep. 4
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Processp. 7
The Targetp. 11
The Target as a Complex Systemp. 12
The Complex Target as a Networkp. 13
Summaryp. 17
Defining the Intelligence Problemp. 19
Statement of the Problemp. 20
The Problem Definition Productp. 22
Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Taskp. 23
Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problemsp. 25
Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problemp. 28
Summaryp. 29
An Analysis Approach to the Targetp. 31
The Concept of a Modelp. 32
Using Target Models for Analysisp. 35
Counterintelligence Analysisp. 37
Targetsp. 37
Operationsp. 37
Linkagesp. 38
Target Model Combinationsp. 38
Submodelsp. 39
Collateral Modelsp. 40
Summaryp. 42
The Analytic Spectrump. 44
The Conflict Spectrump. 44
Strategic Intelligencep. 46
Operational Intelligencep. 46
Tactical Intelligencep. 50
The Temporal Analysis Spectrump. 52
Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligencep. 53
The Tyranny of Current Intelligencep. 54
Fusion Centersp. 55
Capabilities, Plans, and Intentionsp. 55
Indications and Warningp. 56
Summaryp. 59
Synthesis: Creating the Modelp. 61
Overview of Models in Intelligencep. 62
Creating a Conceptual Modelp. 62
Generic Modelsp. 63
Listsp. 63
Curvesp. 63
Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking)p. 65
Pattern Modelsp. 66
Relationship Modelsp. 70
Profilesp. 77
Process Modelsp. 79
Simulation Modelsp. 80
Combination Modelsp. 82
Geospatial Modelsp. 82
Human Terrain Modelsp. 84
Space-Time Modelsp. 85
Geographic Profilingp. 86
Summaryp. 87
Sources of Intelligence Informationp. 89
Existing Reportsp. 89
A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sourcesp. 90
Literal Intelligence Sourcesp. 93
Open Sourcep. 93
Human Intelligencep. 96
Communications Intelligencep. 101
Cyber Collectionp. 106
Nonliteral Intelligencep. 112
Remote and In Situ Sensingp. 112
Imaging and Spectral Sensingp. 114
Passive Radiofrequency Intelligencep. 117
Radar Intelligencep. 119
Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligencep. 119
Materiel and Materials Collectionp. 121
Biometricsp. 123
Summaryp. 123
Evaluating and Collating Datap. 127
Evaluating Evidencep. 127
Evaluating the Sourcep. 128
Evaluating the Communications Channelp. 131
Evaluating the Credentials of Evidencep. 133
Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidencep. 136
Combining Evidencep. 143
Convergent and Divergent Evidencep. 143
Redundant Evidencep. 143
Formal Methods for Combining Evidencep. 144
Summaryp. 145
Collection Strategiesp. 147
The U.S. Collection Management Problemp. 148
The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationshipp. 151
Identifying Gapsp. 154
Developing the Collection Strategyp. 156
Using Existing Collection Assetsp. 156
Dealing with Enigmasp. 162
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gapsp. 163
Executing Collection Strategiesp. 164
Summaryp. 165
Denial, Deception, and Signalingp. 167
Denial and Deceptionp. 167
Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methodsp. 169
Higher Level Denial and Deceptionp. 171
The Man Who Never Wasp. 171
The Cuban Missile Crisisp. 172
The Farewell Dossierp. 173
The Indian Nuclear Testp. 174
Countering Denial and Deceptionp. 175
Signalingp. 178
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&Dp. 180
Summaryp. 181
Predictive Analysisp. 183
Analytic Methodologiesp. 184
Structured Argumentationp. 184
Wigmore's Charting Methodp. 185
Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidencep. 186
Competitive and Alternative Target Modelsp. 188
Competitive Analysisp. 188
Alternative Analysisp. 189
The Role of Information Technologyp. 191
Summaryp. 192
Predictionp. 195
Introduction to Predictionp. 195
Convergent and Divergent Phenomenap. 196
The Predictive Approachp. 198
Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysisp. 202
Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysisp. 203
Scenariosp. 203
Why Use Scenarios?p. 204
Types of Scenariosp. 205
Scenario Perspectivesp. 207
How to Construct Scenariosp. 207
Indicators and the Role of Intelligencep. 212
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020p. 213
Summaryp. 216
Predictive Techniquesp. 218
Extrapolationp. 219
Extrapolation Techniquesp. 219
Correlation and Regressionp. 221
Limitations of Extrapolationp. 222
Projectionp. 223
Generating Alternativesp. 223
Influence Trees or Diagramsp. 224
Influence Netsp. 228
Making Probability Estimatesp. 229
Sensitivity Analysisp. 230
Forecastingp. 231
The Nonlinear Approach to Forecastingp. 232
Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecastingp. 234
Evaluating Forecastsp. 234
Summaryp. 235
Shaping Forcesp. 237
Inertiap. 237
Countervailing Forcesp. 239
Contaminationp. 240
Synergyp. 242
Feedbackp. 244
Strengthp. 246
Time Delayp. 246
Regulationp. 247
Summaryp. 250
Organizational Analysisp. 252
Structurep. 253
Organizational Size and Capabilitiesp. 253
Type of Structurep. 254
Network Analysisp. 254
Functionp. 260
Rational Aspectp. 260
Cultural Aspectp. 262
Emotional Aspectp. 266
Collective Decision Makingp. 267
Processp. 267
Operations Researchp. 268
Schedulep. 270
Costp. 274
Summaryp. 276
Technology and Systems Analysisp. 279
Technology Assessmentp. 279
Future Performancep. 280
Innovationp. 282
Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusionp. 286
Systems Analysisp. 290
Future Systemsp. 291
Performance Analysesp. 293
Systems Simulationp. 299
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysisp. 300
Creating and Running a Simulationp. 301
Summaryp. 303
The Intelligence Customerp. 306
Introductionp. 306
Policymakersp. 307
Congressp. 311
Business Leadersp. 312
Military Leadershipp. 312
Military Operationsp. 313
Homeland Securityp. 313
Law Enforcementp. 314
What All Customers Wantp. 315
Analyst-Customer Interactionp. 316
Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Messagep. 317
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-Inp. 318
The Defense Analysis Challengep. 321
Presenting Analysis Resultsp. 322
Support Every Analytic Conclusionp. 322
Write or Brief with a Purposep. 323
Separate Facts from Analysisp. 323
Get to the Pointp. 324
Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impressp. 324
Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen Top. 325
Write as You Would Talkp. 325
Avoid Acronymsp. 326
Use Graphicsp. 326
Summaryp. 326
Managing Analysisp. 329
Introductionp. 329
Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need?p. 330
What Should the Unit Produce?p. 331
Structurep. 332
Topical or Regional Structure?p. 332
Fusion Centersp. 333
To Firewall or Not to Firewallp. 334
Processp. 335
The Analystp. 335
Recruiting and Developing Analystsp. 338
Planning the Analysis Projectp. 340
Managing Team Effortsp. 341
Peer and Management Reviewp. 346
Collaborative Toolsp. 347
Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methodsp. 347
Limits and Boundariesp. 348
Limitsp. 349
Boundariesp. 350
Functionp. 353
Pressuresp. 353
Some Causes of Failuresp. 356
Evaluating the Productp. 359
Summaryp. 360
A Tale of Two NIEsp. 365
The Yugoslavia NIEp. 365
The Settingp. 366
First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE)p. 366
Second Draft: Force Field Analysisp. 368
The Customer Viewp. 368
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIEp. 369
Poor Problem Definitionp. 370
Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidencep. 371
Failure to Consider Alternative Target Modelsp. 373
Poor Analytic Methodologyp. 373
Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customersp. 374
Example Project Planp. 376
Problem Definitionp. 376
Précisp. 376
Research Planp. 377
Indexp. 379
About the Authorp. 403
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