Intelligence Analysis : A Target-Centric Approach

by Clark, Robert M.

• ISBN13: 9781452206127
• ISBN10: 1452206120
• Edition: 4th
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-10-05
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Summary

Due to the ever-evolving tactics of our enemies, the American intelligence community has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the end-user. Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new fourth edition accounts for recent events and is rife with new examples throughout. Brand new and significantly revised coverage includes chapters on managing the analytic unit, analytic methodologies, and the analytic spectrum, bringing a heightened level of clarity to this outstanding, must-have resource. Clark's practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.

Table of Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes	p. xii
Preface	p. xvi
Introduction	p. xix
Why We Fail	p. xix
Failure to Share Information	p. xx
Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively	p. xxi
Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence	p. xxii
What the Book Is About	p. xxiii
Summary	p. xxiv
Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis	p. 1
The Intelligence Process	p. 1
The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict	p. 3
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle	p. 4
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process	p. 7
The Target	p. 11
The Target as a Complex System	p. 12
The Complex Target as a Network	p. 13
Summary	p. 17
Defining the Intelligence Problem	p. 19
Statement of the Problem	p. 20
The Problem Definition Product	p. 22
Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task	p. 23
Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems	p. 25
Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem	p. 28
Summary	p. 29
An Analysis Approach to the Target	p. 31
The Concept of a Model	p. 32
Using Target Models for Analysis	p. 35
Counterintelligence Analysis	p. 37
Targets	p. 37
Operations	p. 37
Linkages	p. 38
Target Model Combinations	p. 38
Submodels	p. 39
Collateral Models	p. 40
Summary	p. 42
The Analytic Spectrum	p. 44
The Conflict Spectrum	p. 44
Strategic Intelligence	p. 46
Operational Intelligence	p. 46
Tactical Intelligence	p. 50
The Temporal Analysis Spectrum	p. 52
Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence	p. 53
The Tyranny of Current Intelligence	p. 54
Fusion Centers	p. 55
Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions	p. 55
Indications and Warning	p. 56
Summary	p. 59
Synthesis: Creating the Model	p. 61
Overview of Models in Intelligence	p. 62
Creating a Conceptual Model	p. 62
Generic Models	p. 63
Lists	p. 63
Curves	p. 63
Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking)	p. 65
Pattern Models	p. 66
Relationship Models	p. 70
Profiles	p. 77
Process Models	p. 79
Simulation Models	p. 80
Combination Models	p. 82
Geospatial Models	p. 82
Human Terrain Models	p. 84
Space-Time Models	p. 85
Geographic Profiling	p. 86
Summary	p. 87
Sources of Intelligence Information	p. 89
Existing Reports	p. 89
A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources	p. 90
Literal Intelligence Sources	p. 93
Open Source	p. 93
Human Intelligence	p. 96
Communications Intelligence	p. 101
Cyber Collection	p. 106
Nonliteral Intelligence	p. 112
Remote and In Situ Sensing	p. 112
Imaging and Spectral Sensing	p. 114
Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence	p. 117
Radar Intelligence	p. 119
Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence	p. 119
Materiel and Materials Collection	p. 121
Biometrics	p. 123
Summary	p. 123
Evaluating and Collating Data	p. 127
Evaluating Evidence	p. 127
Evaluating the Source	p. 128
Evaluating the Communications Channel	p. 131
Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence	p. 133
Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence	p. 136
Combining Evidence	p. 143
Convergent and Divergent Evidence	p. 143
Redundant Evidence	p. 143
Formal Methods for Combining Evidence	p. 144
Summary	p. 145
Collection Strategies	p. 147
The U.S. Collection Management Problem	p. 148
The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship	p. 151
Identifying Gaps	p. 154
Developing the Collection Strategy	p. 156
Using Existing Collection Assets	p. 156
Dealing with Enigmas	p. 162
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps	p. 163
Executing Collection Strategies	p. 164
Summary	p. 165
Denial, Deception, and Signaling	p. 167
Denial and Deception	p. 167
Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods	p. 169
Higher Level Denial and Deception	p. 171
The Man Who Never Was	p. 171
The Cuban Missile Crisis	p. 172
The Farewell Dossier	p. 173
The Indian Nuclear Test	p. 174
Countering Denial and Deception	p. 175
Signaling	p. 178
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D	p. 180
Summary	p. 181
Predictive Analysis	p. 183
Analytic Methodologies	p. 184
Structured Argumentation	p. 184
Wigmore's Charting Method	p. 185
Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence	p. 186
Competitive and Alternative Target Models	p. 188
Competitive Analysis	p. 188
Alternative Analysis	p. 189
The Role of Information Technology	p. 191
Summary	p. 192
Prediction	p. 195
Introduction to Prediction	p. 195
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena	p. 196
The Predictive Approach	p. 198
Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis	p. 202
Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis	p. 203
Scenarios	p. 203
Why Use Scenarios?	p. 204
Types of Scenarios	p. 205
Scenario Perspectives	p. 207
How to Construct Scenarios	p. 207
Indicators and the Role of Intelligence	p. 212
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020	p. 213
Summary	p. 216
Predictive Techniques	p. 218
Extrapolation	p. 219
Extrapolation Techniques	p. 219
Correlation and Regression	p. 221
Limitations of Extrapolation	p. 222
Projection	p. 223
Generating Alternatives	p. 223
Influence Trees or Diagrams	p. 224
Influence Nets	p. 228
Making Probability Estimates	p. 229
Sensitivity Analysis	p. 230
Forecasting	p. 231
The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting	p. 232
Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting	p. 234
Evaluating Forecasts	p. 234
Summary	p. 235
Shaping Forces	p. 237
Inertia	p. 237
Countervailing Forces	p. 239
Contamination	p. 240
Synergy	p. 242
Feedback	p. 244
Strength	p. 246
Time Delay	p. 246
Regulation	p. 247
Summary	p. 250
Organizational Analysis	p. 252
Structure	p. 253
Organizational Size and Capabilities	p. 253
Type of Structure	p. 254
Network Analysis	p. 254
Function	p. 260
Rational Aspect	p. 260
Cultural Aspect	p. 262
Emotional Aspect	p. 266
Collective Decision Making	p. 267
Process	p. 267
Operations Research	p. 268
Schedule	p. 270
Cost	p. 274
Summary	p. 276
Technology and Systems Analysis	p. 279
Technology Assessment	p. 279
Future Performance	p. 280
Innovation	p. 282
Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion	p. 286
Systems Analysis	p. 290
Future Systems	p. 291
Performance Analyses	p. 293
Systems Simulation	p. 299
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis	p. 300
Creating and Running a Simulation	p. 301
Summary	p. 303
The Intelligence Customer	p. 306
Introduction	p. 306
Policymakers	p. 307
Congress	p. 311
Business Leaders	p. 312
Military Leadership	p. 312
Military Operations	p. 313
Homeland Security	p. 313
Law Enforcement	p. 314
What All Customers Want	p. 315
Analyst-Customer Interaction	p. 316
Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message	p. 317
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In	p. 318
The Defense Analysis Challenge	p. 321
Presenting Analysis Results	p. 322
Support Every Analytic Conclusion	p. 322
Write or Brief with a Purpose	p. 323
Separate Facts from Analysis	p. 323
Get to the Point	p. 324
Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress	p. 324
Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To	p. 325
Write as You Would Talk	p. 325
Avoid Acronyms	p. 326
Use Graphics	p. 326
Summary	p. 326
Managing Analysis	p. 329
Introduction	p. 329
Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need?	p. 330
What Should the Unit Produce?	p. 331
Structure	p. 332
Topical or Regional Structure?	p. 332
Fusion Centers	p. 333
To Firewall or Not to Firewall	p. 334
Process	p. 335
The Analyst	p. 335
Recruiting and Developing Analysts	p. 338
Planning the Analysis Project	p. 340
Managing Team Efforts	p. 341
Peer and Management Review	p. 346
Collaborative Tools	p. 347
Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods	p. 347
Limits and Boundaries	p. 348
Limits	p. 349
Boundaries	p. 350
Function	p. 353
Pressures	p. 353
Some Causes of Failures	p. 356
Evaluating the Product	p. 359
Summary	p. 360
A Tale of Two NIEs	p. 365
The Yugoslavia NIE	p. 365
The Setting	p. 366
First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE)	p. 366
Second Draft: Force Field Analysis	p. 368
The Customer View	p. 368
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE	p. 369
Poor Problem Definition	p. 370
Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence	p. 371
Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models	p. 373
Poor Analytic Methodology	p. 373
Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers	p. 374
Example Project Plan	p. 376
Problem Definition	p. 376
Précis	p. 376
Research Plan	p. 377
Index	p. 379
About the Author	p. 403
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