9780521775014

An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780521775014

  • ISBN10:

    0521775019

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 7/2/2001
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press

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Summary

This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world’s foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of this book are a lively and vigorous prose style; lucid and systematic organization and presentation of ideas; many practical applications; a rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science; numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed; and a full bibliography of further reading.

Table of Contents

A Note on the Cover Illustration ix
Foreword xi
Odd Questions xv
LOGIC
Logic
1(10)
What Is Inductive Logic?
11(12)
HOW TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES
The Gambler's Fallacy
23(14)
Elementary Probability Ideas
37(10)
Conditional Probability
47(11)
The Basic Rules of Probability
58(11)
Bayes' Rule
69(10)
HOW TO COMBINE PROBABILITIES AND UTILITIES
Expected Value
79(19)
Maximizing Expected Value
98(16)
Decision under Uncertainty
114(13)
KINDS OF PROBABILITY
What Do You Mean?
127(13)
Theories about Probability
140(11)
PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF
Personal Probabilities
151(12)
Coherence
163(8)
Learning from Experience
171(18)
PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY
Stability
189(12)
Normal Approximations
201(8)
Significance and Power
209(20)
Confidence and Inductive Behavior
229(18)
PROBABILITY APPLIED TO PHILOSOPHY
The Philosophical Problem of Induction
247(9)
Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction
256(5)
Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction
261(8)
Answers to the Exercises 269(24)
Further Reading 293(7)
Index 300

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