Irans's Security Policy In the Post-Revolutionary Era

by Byman, Daniel L.; Chubin, Shahram; Ehteshami, Anoushiravan; Green, Jerrold

• ISBN13: 9780833029713
• ISBN10: 0833029711
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-06-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xvii
Acronyms	xix
Introduction	1	(6)
Key Observations	2	(1)
Methodology...and Caveats	3	(1)
Structure	4	(3)
Fundamental Sources of Iranian Foreign and Security Policies	7	(14)
Sources of Adventurism	7	(3)
Revolutionary Islam	8	(1)
Persian Nationalism	9	(1)
Sources of Conservatism	10	(9)
Geopolitics	10	(3)
Ethnicity and Communalism	13	(3)
Economics	16	(3)
Impact on Iran's Foreign Policy	19	(2)
Security Decisionmaking in Iran	21	(10)
Decisionmaking Style: Consensus Within Complexity	21	(5)
Formal Decisionmaking Structures	23	(2)
Key Informal Mechanisms	25	(1)
The Implications of Multiple Institutions	26	(2)
How Influences Is Expressed	27	(1)
Trends in Overall Influence	28	(3)
Major Security Institutions and Their Composition	31	(14)
The Intelligence Services	31	(1)
Iran's Two Militaries	32	(4)
The Emergence of an Islamized Military	33	(2)
The Legacy of the Iran-Iraq War	35	(1)
Iran's Military Forces After the Iran-Iraq War	36	(2)
The Basij	38	(1)
Other Paramilitary Groups and Security Players	39	(2)
Comparing the Security Institutions	41	(1)
The Security Institutions and Iran's Military Posture	42	(3)
The Drive for Military Autonomy	43	(1)
A Commitment to Military Professionalism	43	(2)
The Military and Iranian Society	45	(8)
The Military and the Khatami Transformation	45	(3)
Are the Armed Forces Loyal?	48	(3)
Potential Red Lines	51	(2)
Impact on Foreign Policy	53	(46)
Where the Security Institutions Matter Most	54	(1)
Relations with Regional States and Other Important Powers	55	(37)
Iraq	55	(4)
Russia	59	(3)
China	62	(3)
Turkey	65	(4)
Afghanistan	69	(3)
Pakistan	72	(2)
The Gulf States	74	(3)
Central Asia and the Caucasus	77	(4)
Syria and Lebanon	81	(2)
Israel	83	(3)
Europe	86	(1)
The United States	87	(5)
Key Transnational Issues	92	(7)
Support for Islamic Radicals	92	(2)
Commitment to WMD and Missiles	94	(5)
Implications	99	(6)
Foreign and Security Policies Cannot Be Separated	99	(1)
The Islamic Republic Is Increasingly Prudent	100	(1)
Iran Increasingly Uses Ideology as a Mask for Realpolitik	100	(1)
Iran's Decisionmaking Is Chaotic but Not Anarchic	100	(1)
Implementation Is Uneven but Seldom Conflicting	101	(1)
Iran's Security Forces Are Subordinate to Civilian Control	101	(1)
Iran's Security Forces Prefer Shows of Force While Seeking to Avoid Active Confrontations	102	(1)
Differences Between Iran's Regular Armed Forces and Its Revolutionary Armed Forces are Decreasing	102	(1)
Israel and the United States Represent Exceptions to Many Generalizations	102	(1)
Final Words	103	(2)
Bibliography	105	(8)
About the Authors	113