The Iraq Effect The Middle East After the Iraq War

by Wehrey, Frederic; Kaye, Dalia Dassa; Watkins, Jessica; Martini, Jeffrey; Guffey, Robert A.

• ISBN13: 9780833047885
• ISBN10: 0833047884
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-04-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

No matter how the conflict in Iraq ends, its effects on the broader Middle East will be felt for decades to come, presenting new challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy. Drawing extensively from field interviews and local sources, this monograph explores the multiple dimensions of the Iraq War's regional impact to better prepare the United States to manage its long-term consequences. Among the authors' key findings are that the war has facilitated the rise of Iranian power in the region but with more limits than commonly acknowledged; weakened local confidence in U. S. credibility and thereby created new opportunities for Chinese and Russian involvement; entrenched and strengthened neighboring Arab regimes and, at the same time, diminished the momentum for political reform; and eroded al-Qa'ida's standing in the region, leading the network and its affiliates to adapt with new tactics and strategies. Book jacket.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures and Table	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxv
Abbreviations	p. xxvii
Introduction	p. 1
The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly	p. 2
Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of These Shifts	p. 4
The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our Analyses of Current Regional Trends	p. 7
The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate and Prepare for These New Realities	p. 10
This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect	p. 12
Organization of This Monograph	p. 14
Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and Fieldwork	p. 15
An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balance of Power	p. 17
Traditional Balance-of-Power Dynamics Are Shifting to Non-Arab States	p. 18
The Rise of Iran: The Big Winner of the Iraq Conflict?	p. 21
The Arab Response: More Hedging Than Balancing	p. 26
The Two Faces of Iran in the Arab World	p. 26
Suspicion of Iran Does Not Necessarily Translate into Pro-American Positions	p. 30
Regional Ambivalence Toward Both Iran and the United States Undermines U.S. Attempts to Create an Anti-Iranian Alliance	p. 32
The Iraq War Has Reinforced and Created Strategic Challenges for Israel	p. 38
Iran Has Become Israel's Key Regional Concern	p. 38
Potential Instability in Jordan Is a Further Concern	p. 40
Israeli Views on an American Withdrawal Hinge on Perceptions About Whether a Withdrawal Will Strengthen or Weaken U.S. Regional Influence	p. 41
The Iraq War Has Complicated Turkey's Strategic Relations with the United States and Iran	p. 43
The Conflict Exacerbated the Kurdish Challenge for Turkey	p. 43
The Conflict Has Led Turkey Toward Greater Regional Activism and More Cooperation with Iran	p. 45
Turkey's Economic Interests Provide Opportunities for Convergence with U.S. Interests	p. 46
Conclusion	p. 47
New Challenges to American Influence: Chinese and Russian Roles in the Middle East	p. 49
Perceptions of Eroding U.S. Credibility	p. 50
Changing Extraregional Roles	p. 55
China	p. 55
Russia	p. 62
Conclusion	p. 73
Domestic Reverberations of the War: Internal Challenges to Regime Stability	p. 75
The Iraq War Is Not the Main Driver of Increased Sectarian Tensions	p. 77
Sectarianism Has Spread in the Gulf, but Regimes Are Mostly to Blame	p. 77
Fears of Sunni-to-Shi'a Conversions Suggest Deeper Problems in the Levant and Egypt	p. 83
Local Dynamics, Not Iraq, Drive Most Sectarian Strife in Lebanon	p. 85
Tribalism in Iraq May Animate Tribal Activism in Neighboring States	p. 88
Developments in Iraq Have Inspired Kurdish Ambitions in Turkey, Syria, and Iran	p. 92
Iraqi Refugees Present One of the Most Significant Long-Term Challenge	p. 95
Conclusion: The Iraq War May Ultimately Strengthen Neighboring Regimes but Not the State	p. 101
The Iraq War and the Future of Terrorism: Lessons Learned and New Strategic Trends	p. 105
Existing Reports Present Contradictory Evidence on the Net Effects of the Iraq War	p. 106
The Iraq Conflict Has Boosted al-Qa'ida's Recruitment but Reduced Its Long-Term Base of Popular Support	p. 109
Iraq Has Offered an Attractive Narrative of Resistance to Aggrieved Muslims	p. 109
But al-Qa'ida Has Failed to Translate Popular Support for Resistance in Iraq into Broad Backing for Its Global Jihad Bid	p. 111
Al-Qa'ida in Iraq's Violent Tactics Have Alienated Muslim Publics	p. 113
Al-Qa'ida's Experience in Iraq Has Exposed Its Ideology and Strategy	p. 115
Al-Qa'ida's Demonization of Iran and the Shi'a World Is Backfiring	p. 116
Al-Qa'ida Is Losing the Battle Between Nationalist and Transnationalist Agendas	p. 120
Palestine as al-Qa'ida's Misguided New Raison d'Être	p. 122
AQI's Franchise Model Has Arguably Sidelined the Role of Ideology	p. 125
Iraq Has Provided Sunni and Shi'a Militants with Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Asymmetric Warfare	p. 126
Improvised Explosive Devices	p. 128
Indirect Fire	p. 128
Snipers	p. 130
Foreign Volunteerism and Suicide Bombing	p. 130
Recruiting Women and Children	p. 131
Targeting Economic Assets	p. 132
Kidnapping, Torture, and Assassinations	p. 133
Strategic Communications	p. 133
The Greatest Effects on Terrorism May Be Felt After the Conflict, and Outside of the Region	p. 134
The Impact of Volunteers from Iraq Is Lower Than Anticipated	p. 134
The Most Promising New Jihadi Fronts May Not Be Iraq's Neighbors	p. 136
Conclusion	p. 140
Conclusion: Managing the Aftershocks of Iraq and Seizing Opportunities	p. 143
Key Findings	p. 144
Policy Implications	p. 152
Bibliography	p. 159
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