Judgment and Decision Making

by Fischhoff; Baruch

• ISBN13: 9781849714457
• ISBN10: 1849714452
• Format: Nonspecific Binding
• Copyright: 2012-02-10
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.

Author Biography

Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, USA, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Department of Engineering and Public Policy.

Table of Contents

List of figures	p. viii
List of tables	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xi
On the cover	p. xii
Introduction	p. xiii
Background	p. 1
Judgment and decision making	p. 3
Amos Tversky (1937-96)	p. 23
Hindsight Bias	p. 31
Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty	p. 33
For those condemned to study the past: reflections on historical judgment	p. 50
An early history of hindsight research	p. 65
Judgment	p. 69
Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective	p. 72
Knowing with certainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence	p. 103
Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation	p. 124
Assessing uncertainty in physical constants	p. 146
Fifty-fifty = 50%	p. 162
Evaluation	p. 181
Predicting frames	p. 184
Value elicitation: is there anything in there?	p. 207
Informed consent for eliciting environmental values	p. 232
Deciding	p. 247
Giving advice: decision theory perspectives on sexual assault	p. 249
The real world: what good is it?	p. 272
Assessing adolescent decision-making competence	p. 300
Questions of competence: the duty to inform and the limits to choice	p. 320
Conclusion	p. 343
Index	p. 346
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