Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-brunswikian and Process-tracing Approaches

by Juslin, Peter; Montgomery, Henry

• ISBN13: 9780805832549
• ISBN10: 0805832548
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-08-01
• Publisher: Lawrence Erlbau

Summary

Research on human judgment and decision making has been strongly guided by a normative/descriptive approach, according to which human decision making is compared to the normative models provided by decision theory, statistics, and the probability calculus. A common empirical finding has been that human behavior deviates from the prescriptions by normative models--that judgments and decisions are subject to cognitive biases. It is interesting to note that Swedish research on judgment and decision making made an early departure from this dominating mainstream tradition, albeit in two different ways. The Neo-Brunswikian researchhighlights the relationship between the laboratory task and the adaptation to a natural environment. The process-tracing approachattempts to identify the cognitive processes before, during, and after a decision. This volume summarizes current Swedish research on judgment and decision making, covering topics, such as dynamic decision making, confidence research, the search for dominance structures and differentiation, and social decision making.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction and Historical Remarks	1	(6)
Peter Juslin
Henry Montgomery
PART I: JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING IN AN ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT	7	(114)
2. Reasonable Decision Making in Complex Environments	9	(14)
Berndt Brehmer
3. Goal Achievement and Mental Models in Everyday Decision Making	23	(22)
Anders Jansson
4. Mental Processes in Intelligence Tests and Dynamic Decision Making Tasks	45	(22)
Georgios Rigas
Berndt Brehmer
5. Computational Models of Subjective Probability Calibration	67	(30)
Peter Juslin
Henrik Olsson
6. "I Was Well-Calibrated All Along": Assessing Accuracy in Retrospect	97	(24)
Anders Winman
Peter Juslin
PART II: JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING AS MENTAL PROCESSES	121	(122)
7. Feelings of Confidence and the Realism of Confidence Judgments in Everyday Life	123	(24)
Carl Martin Allwood
Par Anders Granhag
8. Decision Making and Action: The Search for a Good Structure	147	(28)
Henry Montgomery
Helena Willen
9. Differentiation and Consolidation Theory: Decision Making Processes Before and After a Choice	175	(24)
Ola Svenson
10. The Role of Mental Accounting in Everyday Economic Decision Making	199	(20)
Tommy Garling
Niklas Karlsson
Marcus Selart
11. Attitudes, Values, and Opinions: Models and Dynamics	219	(24)
Lennart Sjoberg
PART III: JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING IN A SOCIAL CONTEXT	243	(60)
12. The Importance of Fairness for Cooperation Public-Goods Dilemmas	245	(16)
Anders Biel
Daniel Eek
Tommy Garling
13. Contingency and Value in Social Decision Making	261	(14)
Marcus Selart
Daniel Eek
14. (Dis) Agreement in Peer Review	275	(28)
Sven Hemlin
PART IV: COMMENTARIES	303	(24)
15. Mats Bjorkman and Swedish Studies of Judgment and Decision Making	305	(16)
Kenneth R. Hammond
16. Well-Calibrated Claims About Difficult Questions	321	(6)
Baruch Fischhoff
Author Index	327	(10)
Subject Index	337