Lessons From The Crisis In Argentina

by Daseking, Christina; Ghosh, Atish R.; Lane, Timothy; Thomas, Alun

• ISBN13: 9781589063594
• ISBN10: 1589063597
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-02-10
• Publisher: Bernan Assoc

Summary

In 2001-02, Argentina experienced one of the worst economic crises in its history. Output fell by about 20 percent over three years, inflation reignited, the government defaulted on its debt, the banking system was largely paralysed. In the early months of 2003, the economy began to recover, but there remained a long road back to sustained growth and stability. This paper examines the origins of the crisis and its evolution until early 2002. It analyses the economic forces, including a prolonged recession, leading up to the crisis and draws general policy lessons, both for countries' efforts to prevent such crises, and for the IMF's surveillance and use of its financial resources.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Overview	1	(3)
Boom Years and Buildup of Vulnerabilities: 1992--98	4	(19)
Public Finances	4	(7)
The Structural Setting	11	(11)
Summary	22	(1)
Downturn and Deepening Depression: 1998--2000	23	(12)
Initial Downturn---1998	23	(2)
Deepening Depression and Policy Dilemma: 1999--2000	25	(7)
Summary	32	(3)
Crisis: 2001	35	(3)
Aftermath: 2002	38	(1)
Role of the IMF	39	(3)
Conclusions	42	(4)
Lessons for Crisis Prevention and Management	43	(1)
Lessons for the IMF	44	(2)
Appendix I. Argentina's Potential Output Growth	46	(2)
Appendix II. Chronology of Key Developments in 2001--2002	48	(4)
References	52