New York Murder Mystery

by Karmen, Andrew

• ISBN13: 9780814748046
• ISBN10: 081474804X
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2006-11-01
• Publisher: New York Univ Pr

Summary

With this elegant sweep, the author has parted the curtain to reveal a gaseous windbag behind the bombast attending the miraculous claims of today's wizards. Bravo -Tony Bouza, Law Enforcement News Systematically debunks popularly accepted reasons for the crime crash by wedding closely analyzed statistical data with common sense and historical precedent. . . . After reading this book, one thing becomes certain: today's New York isn't what it used to be. -Villager Karmen has written a book that anyone interested in the New York City crime story should read. Nobody has written about the NYC drop in crime more comprehensively or more even-handedly. -Todd R. Clear, president of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences Andrew Karmen tracks a quarter century of murder in the city Americans have most commonly associated with rampant street crime. Providing both a local and a national context for New York's plunging crime rate, Karmen tests and debunks the many self-serving explanations for the decline. While crediting a more effective police force for its efforts, Karmen also emphasizes the decline of the crack epidemic, skyrocketing incarceration rates, favorable demographic trends, a healthy economy, an influx of hard working and law abiding immigrants, a rise in college enrollment, and an unexpected outbreak of improved behavior by young men growing up in poverty stricken neighborhoods. New York Murder Mystery is the most authoritative study to date of why crime rates rise and fall.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Acknowledgments	xv
List of Abbreviations	xvii
1 The 1990's Crime Crash in New York	1	(33)
A Mysterious Outbreak of Better Behavior Sweeps over the City	1	(1)
Written Off as Terminally Ill: A Near Death Experience?	2	(5)
Back from the Dead: Was This a Great Time, or What?	7	(3)
Irrational Exuberance about the Reversal of Fortune? A Tale of Two Cities	10	(3)
Criminological Detective Work: Following Up Leads	13	(15)
Two Crime Waves: Way Up, Down Somewhat, Soaring to Record Levels, Crash!	15	(3)
Too Good to Be True? The Accuracy of Crime Statistics	18	(2)
Just Killings? Was Murder the Only Crime to Crash?	20	(3)
Only in New York? Or Was Crime Down Everywhere?	23	(5)
What's So Special about New York City?	28	(3)
The Clues, So Far	31	(1)
Notes	32	(2)
2 Deconstructing Murders	34	(49)
Going behind the Numbers: Uncovering Patterns and Trends	34	(1)
What Was All the Bloodshed About?	34	(16)
What's Missing from This Picture?	35	(5)
Ultimate Sacrifices	40	(1)
Deadfellas Sleeping with the Fishes	41	(1)
West Side Stories	42	(2)
Wrong Time, Wrong Place: Cruel Twists of Fate	44	(1)
The Real Threats to Life and Limb	45	(1)
Predators on the Prowl	46	(1)
Fatal Fallings Out: All within the Family	46	(1)
Drug-Related Violence	47	(2)
Beefs to Kill For, to Die For	49	(1)
Lost Souls Gone to a Better Place	50	(8)
In Harm's Way	51	(6)
Grave Danger	57	(1)
Round Up the Usual Suspects?	58	(9)
Portrait of the Killers	58	(6)
Mortal Combat: Weapons of Choice	64	(3)
Crime Scenes	67	(5)
High Crime Precincts	71	(1)
Putting Together All the Clues	72	(4)
What Makes Crime Rates Rise and Fall?	73	(3)
Notes	76	(7)
3 NYPD or Not NYPD: That Is the Question	83	(58)
Everything Works?	83	(2)
NYPD Blues	85	(7)
The New NYPD: A Sea Change?	92	(5)
Sounds Convincing: Evaluating Compstat	94	(3)
It's All a Matter of Timing: Did Crime Rates Drop Sharply after the Implementation of Compstat Reforms?	97	(2)
Size Counts? Did an Enlarged NYPD Better Fulfill Its Functions?	99	(9)
Murders Committed in "Visible" Locations Tumbled: Did the Police "Take Back the Streets"?	102	(2)
Reasonable Doubts	104	(2)
Not So Fast...Did an Improvement in Police Response Time Help Save Lives?	106	(2)
Catching Killers	108	(5)
Did the Murder Rate Drop Because the Solution Rate Rose?	108	(3)
Second Opinions	111	(2)
Step Out of Line...Did the Crackdown on Quality-of- Life Infractions Reduce Gun Violence?	113	(12)
Mission Accomplished?	117	(4)
Smoking Guns: Was It Really Zero Tolerance That Discouraged Gun Toting?	121	(4)
Can't Stand the Heat? Good Riddance! Were Hard-Core Criminals Driven out of Town?	125	(2)
Improved Policing: Necessary, Sufficient, or Not Needed at All?	127	(1)
A Rush to Judgment about New York's Finest? The Jury Is Still Out, but the Verdict Is Already In	128	(3)
Notes	131	(10)
4 Behind Bars?	141	(19)
Were the City's Troublemakers Shipped Upstate by a Tougher Criminal Justice System?	141	(1)
The Bad Old Days: A Non-System on the Verge of Collapse?	142	(4)
Lock-'Em-Up and Throw Away the Key?	146	(10)
Do the Crime, Do the Time—Or Beat the Rap?	149	(7)
Notes	156	(4)
5 The Drug-Crime Connection	160	(34)
Were More New Yorkers Just Saying "No!" to Drugs and Drinking?	160	(1)
Drugs 'R' Us: New York as the Center of the Action	161	(5)
The Crack Attack	166	(5)
Did the Drug Trade Undergo a Transformation?	171	(3)
Fewer Abusers, Less Crime: Was the Drug Scene Winding Down?	174	(11)
Under Arrest	175	(2)
The Favorite Drugs of Criminals	177	(1)
One Too Many	178	(1)
One Last Time	179	(1)
Killed under the Influence	180	(1)
Down but Not Out	181	(4)
Down with Drinking?	185	(3)
Notes	188	(6)
6 It's the Economy, Stupid! Or Is It? Did the Boom Cause the Crash?	194	(38)
The Best of Times? Poverty Rates and Crime Rates	195	(6)
As Good As It Gets? Unemployment Rates and Crime Rates	201	(3)
Boom and Bust: The Business Cycle and Crime Rates	204	(3)
Trickle Down: Was the Underground Economy Thriving?	207	(2)
Higher Learning, Lower Criminality? Did the College Experience Counteract Street Smarts?	209	(6)
Foreign Aid: Did Immigrants Help Turn the Tide?	215	(10)
Wretched Refuse or Huddled Masses Yearning to Breathe Free: Were the Newest New Yorkers Criminally Inclined or Disinclined?	216	(9)
Notes	225	(7)
7 Where Have All the Criminals Gone? Did Favorable Demographic Trends Facilitate the Crash?	232	(25)
Escape from New York	232	(3)
Grisly Arithmetic: Did Untimely Deaths Eliminate Many Active Criminals?	235	(8)
Criminals Killed Off by Other Criminals	235	(2)
Drug Abusers Overdosing to an Early Grave	237	(1)
Lives of Intravenous Drug Abusers Lost to AIDS	238	(2)
Criminal Aliens Expelled from the United States	240	(2)
For All the Wrong Reasons: The Ugly Bottom Line	242	(1)
Generations on the Move: Did the High Risk Population of Young Males Shrink?	243	(6)
Fewer Potential Recruits? Young Males with Many Strikes against Them	248	(1)
Exercising Their Right to Remain Silent: Did a Dramatic Change in Attitudes Lead a Generation to Turn Away from Crime?	249	(5)
Summing Up the Numbers	254	(1)
Notes	254	(3)
8 Lessons from the New York Experience	257	(16)
The Anatomy of a Crime Wave	257	(3)
They Said It Couldn't Be Done: Ideological Stakes in the Search for Crime's Causes	260	(2)
What Really Works?	262	(4)
Imagine...	266	(2)
Final Days: When Did the Crash End?	268	(3)
Notes	271	(2)
Appendix	273	(2)
References	275	(32)
Name Index	307	(6)
Subject Index	313	(3)
About the Author	316