The Only Three Questions That Count Investing by Knowing What Others Don't

by Fisher, Kenneth L.; Chou, Jennifer; Hoffmans, Lara; Cramer, James J.

• ISBN13: 9780470074992
• ISBN10: 047007499X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-12-11
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

The Only Three Questions That Count is the first book to show you how to think about investing for yourself and develop innovative ways to understand and profit from the markets. The only way to consistently beat the markets is by knowing something others don't know. This book will show you how to do just that by using three simple questions. You'll see why CNBC's Mad Money host and money manager James J. Cramer says, "I believe that reading his book may be the single best thing you could do this year to make yourself a better investor.In The Only Three Questions That Count, Ken Fisher challenges the conventional wisdoms of investing, overturns glib theories with hard facts, and blows up complacent beliefs about money and the markets. Ultimately, he says, the key to successful investing is daring to challenge yourself and whatever you believe to be true. Packed with more than 100 visuals, usable tools, and a glossary, The Only Three Questions That Count is an entertaining and educational experience in the markets unlike any other, giving you an opportunity to reap the huge rewards that only the markets can offer.

Author Biography

Ken Fisher is best known for his prestigious "Portfolio Strategy" column in Forbes magazine, where his twenty-two-year tenure of high-profile calls makes him the fifth longest-running columnist in Forbes' eighty-nine-year history. He is also the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Fisher Investments, an independent global money management firm with over $30 billion in assets. Consistently ranked the most accurate published market forecaster by third-party CXO Advisory Group, Fisher was ranked 297 on the 2006 Forbes 400 list of richest Americans. He is the award-winning author of numerous scholarly articles and has published three previous major finance books including 1984's bestselling stock market book, Super Stocks. He also writes frequently for other business and financial publications, including a regular column for Bloomberg Money in Britain.

Jennifer Chou graduated from the University of California with a BS in finance. She is a Research Analyst of global capital markets and macroeconomics at Fisher Investments.

Lara Hoffmans graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a BA in theatre. She is a Research Analyst at Fisher Investments.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	ix
Foreword	xiii
Preface	xix
Who Am I to Tell You Something That Counts?	xix
Idiots and Professionals: Oh, but I Repeat Myself	xxii
Because Mr. Crafty, It's Not a Craft	xxvi
It's All Latin to Me—Starting to Think like a Scientist	xxix
The Only Three Questions That Count	xxx
1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False?	1	(36)
If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It	1	(7)
The Mythological Correlation	8	(12)
Always Look at It Differently	20	(7)
When You Are Really, Really Wrong	27	(10)
2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable?	37	(44)
Fathoming the Unfathomable	37	(1)
Ignore the Rock in the Bushes	38	(2)
Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance	40	(8)
The Shocking Truth about Yield Curves	48	(15)
What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You	63	(9)
The Presidential Term Cycle	72	(9)
3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now?	81	(38)
It's Not Your Fault—Blame Evolution	81	(6)
Cracking the Stone Age Code—Pride and Regret	87	(18)
The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks	105	(2)
Get Your Head Out of the Cave	107	(12)
4 Capital Markets Technology	119	(46)
Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology into Practice	119	(3)
It's Good while It Lasts	122	(6)
Forecast with Accuracy, Not like a Professional	128	(12)
Better Living through Global Benchmarking	140	(25)
5 When There's No There, There!	165	(28)
Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude	165	(6)
In the Center Ring—Oil versus Stocks	171	(14)
Sell in May because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect	185	(8)
6 No, It's Just the Opposite	193	(42)
When You Are Wrong—Really, Really, Really Wrong	193	(9)
Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted Apple iPod Borrower	202	(11)
Let's Trade This Deficit for That One	213	(9)
The New Gold Standard	222	(13)
7 Shocking but True	235	(38)
Supply and Demand...and That's It	235	(22)
Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—What Does It Matter?	257	(16)
8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone-Age Brain	273	(38)
That Predictable Market	273	(9)
Anatomy of a Bubble	282	(11)
Some Basic Bear Rules	293	(11)
What Causes a Bear Market?	304	(7)
9 Putting It All Together	311	(48)
Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to Him	311	(13)
Four Rules That Count	324	(19)
Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win	343	(9)
When the Heck Do You Sell?	352	(7)
Conclusion	359	(8)
Transformationalism	360	(7)
Appendix A: U.S. Equity Total Returns 1830 to 1925	367	(2)
Appendix B: S&P 500 Composite Returns	369	(6)
Appendix C: Simulated Technology Returns	375	(2)
Appendix D: Nasdaq Composite Returns	377	(4)
Appendix E: U.K. Stock Market Total Returns	381	(4)
Appendix F: U.K. Stock Market (FTSE All-Share) Total Returns	385	(4)
Appendix G: Germany Stock Market Returns	389	(4)
Appendix H: Germany Stock Market (DAX) Total Returns	393	(4)
Appendix I: Japan Stock Market Total Returns	397	(4)
Appendix J: Japan Stock Market (TOPIX) Total Returns	401	(4)
Appendix K: Fisher Investments Global Total Return Performance	405	(2)
Appendix L: Ten-Year History of the Forbes Report Card	407	(2)
Appendix M: The United Deficits: Data	409	(2)
Notes	411	(10)
Glossary	421	(10)
Index	431