Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future

by Alverson, Keith D.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Alverson, Keith D.; Bradley, Raymond S.

• ISBN13: 9783540424024
• ISBN10: 3540424024
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-01-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

This book provides a synthesis of the past decade of research into global changes that occurred in the earth system in the past. Focus is achieved by concentrating on those changes in the Earth's past environment that best inform our evaluation of current and future global changes and their consequences for human populations. The book stands as a ten year milestone in the operation of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). It seeks to provide a quantitative understanding of the Earth's environment in the geologically recent past and to define the envelope of natural environmental variability against which anthropogenic impacts on the Earth System may be assessed. A set of color overhead transparencies based on the figures in the book is available free on the PAGES website (www.pages-igbp.org) for use in teaching and lecturing.

Table of Contents

The Societal Relevance of Paleoenvironmental Research
1.1 Introduction	1	(3)
1.2 A paleo-perspective on earth system function	4	(1)
1.3 fast climate variability, human societies and human impacts	5	(2)
1.3.1 The Anthropocene	5	(1)
1.3.2 Societal responses to past climatic change	6	(1)
1.3.3 Decadal-centennial modulation of modes of climate variability	7	(1)
1.3.4 Vulnerability to extreme events	7	(6)
1.4 Hydrological variability	7	(1)
1.5 Ecosystem processes	8	(1)
1.6 Landcover change	9	(1)
1.7 Biodiversity	9	(1)
1.8 Testing climate models with paleodata	10	(1)
1.9 A paleo-perspective on future global change	10	(3)
The Late Quaternary History of Atmospheric Trace Gases and Aerosols: Interactions Between Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles
2.1 Introduction: anthropogenic and natural changes	13	(2)
2.1.1 Greenhouse gases	14	(1)
2.1.2 Aerosols	14	(1)
2.2 The significance of past atmospheric records	15	(3)
2.2.1 Aerosol incorporation and gas occlusion in ice	15	(1)
2.2.2 How reliable are the climate records obtained from ice cores?	16	(2)
2.3 Glacial-interglacial cycles	18	(3)
2.3.1 Greenhouse gases	18	(2)
2.3.2 Aerosols and DMS	20	(1)
2.4 Abrupt climatic changes during the last ice age	21	(6)
2.4.1 CH4 variations	21	(3)
2.4.2 NO variations	24	(2)
2.4.3 CO2 variations	26	(1)
2.4.4 Dust	26	(1)
2.5 The Holocene	27	(1)
2.5.1 CH4 variation over the Holocene	27	(1)
2.5.2 CO2 increase over the Holocene	28	(1)
2.5.3 The Holocene N2O level	28	(1)
2.6 The last millennium	28	(3)
2.6.1 Greenhouse gases	28	(2)
2.6.2 Aerosols	30	(4)
Pre-industrial	30	(1)
Anthropogenic increase	30	(23)
2.7 Conclusions, a view in the context of future changes	31	(2)
The History of Climate Dynamics in the Late Quaternary
3.1 Introduction	33	(1)
3.2 Climate change under orbital forcing	34	(10)
3.2.1 Developing a chronology of past climatic change	34	(2)
3.2.2 Understanding glacial cycles	36	(3)
3.2.3 Glacial inception	39	(1)
3.2.4 The Last Glacial Maximum	40	(2)
3.2.5 Glacial Termination	42	(2)
3.3 Interaction among climate system components on millennial time scales	44	(8)
3.3.1 Millennial scale variability in proxy data: high latitude signals	44	(3)
3.3.2 Millenial variability of climate at low latitudes	47	(3)
3.3.3 Modeling millennial scale climate variability	50	(2)
3.4 Climate modes on interannual to centennial scales	52	(11)
3.4.1 The tropical Pacific: El Ni±o/Southern Oscillation	53	(4)
ENSO in recent centuries	53	(2)
ENSO in the late Quaternary	55	(1)
ENSO in the mid-Holocene	55	(17)
3.4.2 Decadal variability in the extratropical Pacific	57	(2)
3.4.3 North Atlantic Oscillation	59	(1)
3.4.4 Tropical Atlantic: the dipole and extratropical links	60	(1)
3.4.5 Global teleconnectivity	61	(3)
The Late Quaternary History of Biogeochemical Cycling of Carbon	63	(18)
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Continental processes and their impact on atmospheric CO2	64	(4)
4.2.1 Biospheric carbon	64	(3)
4.2.2 Soil carbonate	67	(1)
4.2.3 Weathering and river transport	68	(1)
4.3 Marine processes that affect atmospheric CO2	68	(4)
4.3.1 Air-sea flux	68	(1)
4.3.2 SST and SSS control (the solubility pump)	69	(1)
4.3.3 Removal of ECO2 from surface waters by sinking Cors	69	(2)
4.3.4 Supply of carbonate ions to surface waters (the alkalinity pump)	71	(1)
4.3.5 The export ratio (biological versus alkalinity pumps)	72	(1)
4.4 Impact of marine processes on atmospheric CO2	72	(6)
4.4.1 Contribution from the solubility pump	72	(1)
4.4.2 Global export of ECO2 from surface waters	72	(4)
Changes in N and P supply in oligotrophic regions	72	(1)
Changes in Fe supply in HNLC regions	73	(3)
Changes in Si supply	76	(11)
4.4.3 Global rate of supply of ECO2 to surface waters	76	(1)
4.4.4 Contributions from the alkalinity pump	76	(1)
4.4.5 Contributors to transient excursions in atmospheric CO2	77	(5)
4.5 Summary and critical areas for future research	78	(3)
Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future
5.1 Introduction	81	(1)
5.2 The roles of the terrestrial biosphere in the climate system	82	(4)
5.2.1 Biogeochemical roles	83	(1)
5.2.2 Biophysical roles	84	(2)
5.3 Terrestrial biosphere changes in the past	86	(8)
5.3.1 Response of the biosphere	87	(2)
Growth and/or death	87	(1)
Species migration	87	(1)
Changes in community composition	87	(1)
Changes through evolution	88	(1)
Extinction	88	(1)
5.3.2 The temporal hierarchy of climate change and biospheric response	89	(4)
The tectonic frequency band	89	(1)
The "Orbital" frequency band (1 million to 10,000 years)	90	(3)
The millennial frequency band (10,000 to 1,000 years)	93	(1)