Population and Climate Change

by Brian C. O'Neill , F. Landis MacKellar , Wolfgang Lutz

• ISBN13: 9780521662420
• ISBN10: 0521662427
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-11-06
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the twenty-first century: population growth and associated demographic trends such as aging, and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is readable by members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students on courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

Table of Contents

Foreword	vii
Preface	xi
Authors and Contributors	xv
Acknowledgments	xvii
PART I	1	(110)
Climate Change	3	(36)
A Climate Primer	4	(8)
Evidence of Climate Change	12	(3)
Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions	15	(3)
Projecting Future Climate Change	18	(6)
Impacts on Society and Ecosystems	24	(6)
Global Warming: A Historical Sketch	30	(5)
Conclusion	35	(4)
The Human Population	39	(42)
Demographic Trends: A Global Summary	40	(4)
Fertility Decline in Less Developed Countries	44	(9)
Population Projections	53	(2)
The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Methodology and Assumptions	55	(11)
The IIASA 1996 Population Projections: Results	66	(10)
Impact of Global Climate Change on the Population Outlook	76	(2)
Conclusion	78	(3)
Population, Economic Development, and Environment	81	(30)
Population and Economic Development	82	(7)
Population and Environment	89	(7)
Vicious-Circle Models	96	(7)
Economic Impacts of Population Aging	103	(4)
Conclusion	107	(4)
PART II	111	(96)
Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions	113	(30)
Population, Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions	114	(3)
Demographic Impact Identities	117	(7)
Population Sensitivity Analyses	124	(15)
Conclusion	139	(4)
Population and Adaptation: Agriculture, Health, and Environmental Security	143	(40)
Food and Agriculture	144	(18)
Health	162	(9)
Environmental Security	171	(7)
Conclusion	178	(5)
Population and Climate Change: Policy Implications	183	(24)
The Basis for Climate Policy	184	(6)
The Basis for Population Policies	190	(6)
Climate Change and Population Policies	196	(8)
Conclusion	204	(3)
Appendix I: Fertility and Mortality Assumptions for IIASA Population Projections	207	(2)
Appendix II: Household-level Economies of Scale in Energy Consumption	209	(3)
Appendix III: Population in Major Climate Change Assessment Models	212	(3)
References	215	(44)
Index	259