Post-Imperium

by Trenin, Dmitri

• ISBN13: 9780870032486
• ISBN10: 0870032488
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-06-29
• Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace

Summary

The war in Georgia. Tensions with Ukraine and other nearby countries. Moscow's bid to consolidate its "zone of privileged interests" among the Commonwealth of Independent States. These volatile situations all raise questions about the nature of and prospects forRussia's relations with its neighbors. In this book, Carnegie scholar Dmitri Trenin argues that Moscow needs to dropthe notion of creating an exclusive power center out of the post-Soviet space. Like other former European empires, Russia will need to reinvent itself as a global player andas part of a wider community. Trenin's vision of Russia is an open Euro-Pacific country that is savvy in its use of soft power and fully reconciled with its former borderlands and dependents. He acknowledges that this scenario may sound too optimistic but warns that the alternative is not a new version of the historic empire but instead is the ultimate marginalization of Russia.

Author Biography

Dmitri Trenin is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Table of Contents

List of maps and tables	p. viii
Foreword	p. ix
A Note From the Author	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xv
Introduction: Life After Death?	p. 1
A Chronicle of the Sinking Empire	p. 1
The Aftermath	p. 6
Why Did It Happen?	p. 9
After the Empire	p. 11
Defining the Post-Imperium	p. 13
The Imperial Rise	p. 18
Twenty Years Later	p. 26
No Single Space Anymore	p. 36
Imperial Exit and Post-Imperial Condition	p. 39
Public Perceptions	p. 39
Territory and Borders	p. 40
Border Adjustments	p. 42
Territorial Status of the New States	p. 44
Internal Divisions	p. 50
Nation Building	p. 59
Economy	p. 69
Government	p. 72
Military Power	p. 75
International Position	p. 79
Conclusion	p. 81
Geopolitics and Security	p. 83
Russia's General Approach Toward the New States	p. 84
The Western Flank	p. 88
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine	p. 88
From Frozen Conflicts to the Five-Day War: Georgia	p. 93
The Broader-NATO Enlargement Issue	p. 101
The Future: New Eastern Europe	p. 108
Forgotten Satellites: Central and Southeastern Europe and the Baltics	p. 113
The Southern Front	p. 115
The North Caucasus	p. 116
The South Caucasus and the Neighborhood	p. 121
Central Asia	p. 125
The Eastern Flank	p. 133
The Northern Flank	p. 140
Conclusion	p. 142
Economics and Energy	p. 144
Russian Economic Interests in the CIS	p. 147
Trade	p. 148
Investment	p. 150
Migration	p. 152
Integration	p. 153
Energy	p. 158
Ukrainian Gas Crises of 2006 and 2009	p. 160
Belarusian Crises of 2007 and 2010	p. 162
Gazprom and the Rest of the CIS	p. 164
Pipeline Geopolitics	p. 164
Opening of the CIS Markets to the World	p. 170
conclusion	p. 172
Demographics and Immigration	p. 174
Demographic Crisis	p. 176
Returning Russians	p. 180
Immigration and Integration	p. 183
Anti-Immigrant Sentiments	p. 187
"The Chinese Are Coming!"	p. 188
Regional Demographic Vulnerabilities	p. 190
"Compatriots Abroad"	p. 193
Ethnic Russians in Estonia and Latvia	p. 196
Russian "Foreign" Passports	p. 198
Russian Communities in the Far Abroad	p. 199
Conclusion	p. 200
Culture, Ideology, and Religion	p. 202
Ideas and Ideologies	p. 202
The Failure of Integration	p. 204
Russia's Alleingang	p. 207
Yearning for a Global Role	p. 210
Politics of History	p. 212
The Controversies Over World War II	p. 215
Reappropriating History	p. 220
Religion	p. 223
Language	p. 228
Conclusion	p. 231
Conclusion	p. 233
Notes	p. 243
Index	p. 261
About the Author	p. 281
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace	p. 283
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