The Poverty of Historicism

by Popper,Karl

• ISBN13: 9780415278454
• ISBN10: 0415278457
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-03-29
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

On its publication in 1957, The Poverty of Historicism was hailed by Arthur Koestler as 'probably the only book published this year which will outlive the century'.A devastating criticism of fixed and predictable laws in history, Popper dedicated the book to all those 'who fell victim to the fascist and communist belief in Inexorable Laws of Historical Destiny'. Short and beautifully written, it has inspired generations of readers, intellectuals and policy makers. One of the most important books on the social sciences since the Second World War, it is a searing insight into the ideas of this great thinker.

Table of Contents

Historical Note	ix
Preface	xi
Introduction	1	(3)
I The Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism	4	(27)
Generalization	5	(2)
Experiment	7	(1)
Novelty	8	(2)
Complexity	10	(1)
Inexactitude of Prediction	11	(1)
Objectivity and Valuation	12	(3)
Holism	15	(2)
Intuitive Understanding	17	(4)
Quantitative Methods	21	(2)
Essentialism versus Nominalism	23	(8)
II The Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism	31	(19)
Comparison with Astronomy. Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts	32	(2)
The Observational Basis	34	(1)
Social Dynamics	35	(1)
Historical Laws	36	(1)
Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering	37	(3)
The Theory of Historical Development	40	(4)
Interpreting versus Planning Social Change	44	(2)
Conclusion of the Analysis	46	(4)
III Criticism of the Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines	50	(46)
Practical Aims of this Criticism	50	(3)
The Technological Approach to Sociology	53	(5)
Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering	58	(7)
The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism	65	(5)
Criticism of Holism	70	(6)
The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments	76	(9)
The Variability of Experimental Conditions	85	(4)
Are Generalizations Confined to Periods?	89	(7)
IV Criticism of the Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines	96	(54)
Is there a Law of Evolution? Laws and Trends	96	(14)
The Method of Reduction. Causal Explanation. Prediction and Prophecy	110	(10)
The Unity of Method	120	(12)
Theoretical and Historical Sciences	132	(4)
Situational Logic in History Historical Interpretation	136	(5)
The Institutional Theory of Progress	141	(7)
Conclusion. The Emotional Appeal of Historicism	148	(2)
Index	150