Preventive Measures Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems

by Davies, John L.; Ahmed, Adeel; Baechler, Günther; Bond, Doug; Brecke, Peter; Chen, Robert S.; Cockell, John G.; Dmitrichev, Andrei; Esty, Daniel C.; Gerner, Deborah J.; Goldstone, Jack; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Hiltermann, Joost R.; Jefferson, Ch

• ISBN13: 9780847688739
• ISBN10: 0847688739
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1998-09-10
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Summary

State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiting major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peacful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	vii	(2)
Abbreviations	ix
Preventive Measures: An Overview	1	(14)
John L. Davies
Ted Robert Gurr
I. Structural Indicators and Risk Assessment Models	15	(55)
1. A Risk Assessment Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion	15	(12)
Ted Robert Gurr
2. The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for U.S. Foreign Policy Planning	27	(12)
Daniel C. Esty
Jack Goldstone
Ted Robert Gurr
Barbara Harff
Pamela T. Surko
Alan N. Unger
Robert S. Chen
3. Indicator Development: Issues in Forecasting Conflict Escalation	39	(17)
Alex P. Schmid
4. Early Warning Indicators of Forced Migration	56	(14)
Susanne Schmeidi
J. Craig Jenkins
II. Dynamic Indicators and Early Warning Models	70	(61)
5. Early Warning of Humanitarian Crises: Sequential Models and the Role of Accelerators	70	(9)
Barbara Harff
6. Dynamic Data for Conflict Early Warning	79	(16)
John L. Davies
Barbara Harff
Anne L. Speca
7. Cluster Analysis as an Early Warning Technique for the Middle East	95	(13)
Philip A. Schrodt
Deborah J. Gerner
8. Timely Conflict Risk Assessments and the PANDA Project	108	(13)
Doug Bond
9. A Pattern Recognition Approach to Conflict Early Warning	121	(10)
Peter Brecke
III. Specialized Models and Applications	131	(54)
10. Early Warning of Environmentally Caused Conflicts	131	(11)
Gunther Baechler
11. An Expert System for Assessing Vulnerability to Instability	142	(17)
Grace I. Scarborough
12. The FUGI Model as a Global Early Warning System for Refugees	159	(15)
Akira Onishi
13. Human Rights Abuses and Arms Trafficking in Central Africa	174	(7)
Joost R. Hiltermann
14. FAST: A Pilot Study for an Early Warning System for the Swiss Foreign Ministry	181	(4)
Andreas V. Kohlschutter
Gunther Baechler
IV. Public Sector Information and Early Warning Systems	185	(45)
15. The Global Information and Early Warning Systems on Food and Agriculture	185	(9)
Abdur Rashid
16. USAID's Famine Early Warning System	194	(9)
William P. Whelan
17. The Humanitarian Early Warning System: From Concept to Practice
Adeel Ahmed
Elizabeth Voulieris Kassinis
18. ReliefWeb: An International Information Management Tool	212	(7)
Dennis King
19. The Role of Early Warning in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees	219	(11)
Andrei Dmitrichev
V. From Early Warning to Early Response	230	(25)
20. Toward Response-Oriented Early Warning Analysis	230	(11)
John G. Cockell
21. Information Sharing and Early Warning	241	(7)
Charles J. Jefferson
22. Early Warning: An Action Agenda	248	(7)
Donald Krumm
References	255	(12)
List of Open Access Early Warning Projects	267	(14)
Index	281	(6)
About the Contributors	287