9780199658305

Quitting Certainties A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief

by
  • ISBN13:

    9780199658305

  • ISBN10:

    0199658307

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 3/1/2013
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press
  • Purchase Benefits
  • Free Shipping On Orders Over $59!
    Your order must be $59 or more to qualify for free economy shipping. Bulk sales, PO's, Marketplace items, eBooks and apparel do not qualify for this offer.
  • Get Rewarded for Ordering Your Textbooks! Enroll Now

Supplemental Materials

What is included with this book?

  • The New copy of this book will include any supplemental materials advertised. Please check the title of the book to determine if it should include any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.
  • The Used, Rental and eBook copies of this book are not guaranteed to include any supplemental materials. Typically, only the book itself is included. This is true even if the title states it includes any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

Summary

Michael G. Titelbaum presents a new Bayesian framework for modeling rational degrees of belief, called the Certainty-Loss Framework. Subjective Bayesianism is epistemologists' standard theory of how individuals should change their degrees of belief over time. But despite the theory's power, it is widely recognized to fail for situations agents face every day. Michael G. Titelbaum argues that these failures stem from a common source: the inability ofConditionalization (Bayesianism's traditional updating rule) to model claims' going from certainty at an earlier time to less-than-certainty later on. He presents the first systematic, comprehensive Bayesian framework to accurately represent rational requirements on agents who undergo certainty loss. Titelbaumcompares the framework he proposes to alternatives, then applies it to cases in epistemology, decision theory, the theory of identity, and the philosophy of quantum mechanics. This is the first unified Bayesian framework capable of accurately modeling rational requirements in cases involving memory loss and context-sensitivity. It has applications to such diverse topics as indifference principles, relations among epistemic peers, Everettian interpretations ofquantum mechanics, the Fine-Tuning Argument for the multiverse, and the controversial Sleeping Beauty problem. Titelbaum develops his ambitious project with rigor and philosophical subtlety: the book makes a major contribution to the literature on formal epistemology.

Author Biography


Michael G. Titelbaum is Assistant Professor of Philosophy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Table of Contents

Going Modeling
Introduction
Models and Norms
Elements of CLF
Modeling Framework
Applying CLF Models to Stories
Three Objections
Memory Loss
Generalized Conditionalization
Suppositional Consistency
Context-Sensitivity
The Proper Expansion Principle
Applying (PEP)
Alternative Updating Schemes
Indierence and Quantum
Conclusion
Loose Ends
Modeling Advantages
Proofs
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

Rewards Program

Write a Review