Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990–1999

by Joshua A. Tucker

• ISBN13: 9780521856607
• ISBN10: 0521856604
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-01-09
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

This study demonstrates that in a time of massive change characterized by the emergence of entirely new political systems and a fundamental reorganization of economic life, systematic patterns of economic conditions affecting election results at the aggregate level can in fact be identified during the first decade of post-communist elections in five post-communist countries: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. A variety of theoretical arguments concerning the conditions in which these effects are more or less likely to be present are also proposed and tested. Analysis is conducted using an original data set of regional level economic, demographic, and electoral indicators, and features both broadly based comparative assessments of the findings across all twenty elections as well as more focused case study analyses of pairs of individual elections.

Table of Contents

List of Tables	xi
Acknowledgments	xv
Party Acronyms and Candidate Abbreviations	xix
1 INTRODUCTION	1	(26)
2 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND ELECTION RESULTS	27	(51)
3 COMPARATIVE CROSS-REGIONAL ANALYSIS	78	(48)
4 PAIRED CASE STUDIES	126	(26)
5 THE INCUMBENCY HYPOTHESIS	152	(32)
Appendix 5.1: Coding of Primary and Other Coalition Partners	178	(6)
6 THE NEW REGIME HYPOTHESIS	184	(31)
Appendix 6.1: Borderline New Regime Parties	210	(5)
7 THE OLD REGIME HYPOTHESIS	215	(29)
Appendix 7.1: Supplementary Tables	242	(2)
8 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS	244	(32)
Appendix 8.1: Supplementary Table	274	(2)
9 ECONOMIC VOTING AND POSTCOMMUNIST POLITICS	276	(33)
Appendix I NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS	309	(10)
Appendix II REGRESSION RESULTS AND DOCUMENTATION	319	(37)
Appendix III ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTIONS OF FIRST DIFFERENCES	356	(19)
Appendix IV PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE SIMULATIONS BY PARTY	375	(4)
Works Cited	379	(26)
Index	405