Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach

by M. Granger Morgan , Baruch Fischhoff , Ann Bostrom , Cynthia J. Atman

• ISBN13: 9780521802239
• ISBN10: 0521802237
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-07-30
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

People today must make decisions about many health, safety, and environmental risks. Nuclear power, HIV/AIDS, radon, vaccines, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are just some issues that may face them in the news media, ballot box, or doctor's office. In order to make sound choices they need to get good information. Because their time is limited, that information has to be carefully selected and clearly presented. This book provides a systematic approach for risk communicators and technical experts, hoping to serve the public by providing information about risks. The procedure uses approaches from risk and decision analysis to identify the most relevant information; it uses approaches from psychology and communication theory to ensure that it is understood. This book is written in nontechnical terms, designed to make the approach feasible for anyone willing to try it. It is illustrated with successful communications, on a variety of topics.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
Introduction	1	(18)
The context of risk communication	1	(2)
The goals of risk communication	3	(2)
The goals of communication recipients	5	(2)
Criticisms of risk communication	7	(3)
How people think about risk and uncertainty	10	(4)
What kinds of communications are we considering?	14	(5)
Our Mental Models Approach	19	(15)
The need for a systematic approach	19	(2)
The mental models metaphor	21	(1)
Constructing the influence diagram	22	(1)
Eliciting mental models	23	(2)
The value of open-ended interviews	25	(1)
The cost of open-ended interviews	26	(1)
Confirmatory questionnaires	27	(1)
Creating communications	28	(1)
More testing	29	(1)
Is it worth it?	30	(4)
Creating an Expert Model of the Risk	34	(29)
Influence diagrams	35	(7)
Strategies for creating influence diagrams	42	(6)
Examples of influence diagrams	48	(10)
Summary	58	(5)
Mental Models Interviews	63	(21)
Designing and testing the interview protocol	63	(7)
Strategy	63	(2)
Design details: A radon example	65	(5)
Conducting the interview	70	(8)
Strategy	70	(4)
Quality control	74	(1)
Sample participants	74	(2)
Sample size	76	(2)
Picture sorting	78	(1)
Summarizing, analyzing, and interpreting the results	79	(5)
Confirmatory Questionnaires	84	(13)
Objectives of questionnaire studies	84	(2)
Designing and testing confirmatory questionnaires	86	(6)
Conducting and analyzing the study	92	(3)
Special questionnaires to explore key points	95	(2)
Development and Evaluation of Communications	97	(28)
Principles	97	(3)
Choosing message content: A radon example	98	(2)
Building messages from users' decision needs and mental models results	100	(3)
Evaluation	103	(1)
Technical review	104	(2)
Choosing experts	104	(2)
Text-based evaluation methods	106	(5)
A radon example of text-based evaluation	106	(5)
Reader-based evaluation methods	111	(9)
Open-ended methods	112	(4)
Structured evaluations/surveys	116	(4)
Conclusion	120	(5)
Case Studies: Applications to Environmental Risks	125	(35)
Climate change	125	(16)
Power-frequency fields	141	(10)
Radon in homes	151	(3)
Nuclear energy sources for space missions	154	(6)
A Mental Models Approach to HIV/AIDS	160	(19)
An expert model of HIV/AIDS	161	(3)
Mental models interviews	164	(3)
A structured survey	167	(4)
A mental models communication and its evaluation	171	(2)
Discussion	173	(6)
Some Concluding Thoughts	179	(6)
The cost of risk communication	179	(1)
Quality assurance	180	(2)
Mental models methods in context	182	(1)
The bottom line	182	(3)
Appendix A: Brochure on global warming and climate change	185	(54)
Appendix B: Brochure on fields from electric power	239	(64)
Appendix C: Risk communication materials on HIV/AIDS	303	(26)
Appendix D: Sample transcripts of mental model interviews	329	(12)
Index	341