
PART 1 Finding Data in Life 


1  (120) 

The Benefits and Risks of Using Statistics 


3  (12) 


4  (1) 


4  (1) 

Detecting Patterns and Relationships 


5  (3) 

Does Aspirin Prevent Heart Attacks? 


7  (1) 

Don't Be Deceived by Improper Use of Statistics 


8  (2) 

A Mistaken Accusation of Cheating 


10  (1) 


10  (5) 


10  (3) 


13  (1) 


14  (1) 


15  (21) 

The Educated Consumer of Data 


16  (1) 


16  (2) 

How to be a Statistics Sleuth: Seven Critical Components 


18  (3) 

Four Hypothetical Examples of Bad Reports 


21  (9) 

Who Suffers from Hangovers? 


28  (2) 

Planning Your Own Study: Defining the Components in Advance 


30  (6) 

Brooks Shoes Brings Flawed Study to Court 


31  (1) 


32  (3) 


35  (1) 


35  (1) 

Measurements, Mistakes, and Misunderstandings 


36  (21) 

Simple Measures Don't Exist 


37  (1) 


37  (4) 

No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide 


40  (1) 

Open or Closed Questions: Should Choices Be Given? 


41  (2) 

Defining What Is Being Measured 


43  (3) 


45  (1) 

Defining a Common Language 


46  (11) 


51  (4) 


55  (1) 


56  (1) 


57  (24) 

Common Research Strategies 


58  (3) 

Defining a Common Language 


61  (1) 


62  (2) 


64  (1) 


65  (4) 

Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling 


69  (12) 

The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936 


73  (1) 


73  (6) 


79  (1) 


80  (1) 

Experiments and Observational Studies 


81  (26) 

Defining a Common Language 


82  (3) 

Designing a Good Experiment 


85  (5) 

Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches 


89  (1) 

Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments 


90  (3) 

Exercise Yourself to Sleep 


93  (1) 

Designing a Good Observational Experiment 


93  (3) 

Baldness and Heart Attacks 


94  (2) 

Difficulties and Disasters in Observational Studies 


96  (2) 

Random Sample versus Random Assignment 


98  (9) 


100  (5) 


105  (1) 


106  (1) 


107  (14) 


107  (14) 

Mozart, Relaxation, and Performance on Spatial Tasks 


108  (2) 


110  (3) 

Drinking, Driving, and the Supreme Court 


113  (3) 

Smoking During Pregnancy and Child's IQ 


116  (2) 

For Class Discussion: Guns and Homicides at Home 


118  (1) 


119  (1) 


119  (2) 

PART 2 Finding Life in Data 


121  (174) 

Summarizing and Displaying Measurement Data 


123  (24) 

Turning Data into Information 


124  (1) 

Picturing Data: Stemplots and Histograms 


125  (7) 

Five Useful Numbers: A Summary 


132  (2) 


134  (2) 

Traditional Measures: Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation 


136  (2) 

Caution: Being Average Isn't Normal 


138  (9) 

Detecting Exam Cheating with a Histogram 


139  (1) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


140  (1) 


141  (4) 


145  (1) 


146  (1) 

BellShaped Curves and Other Shapes 


147  (15) 

Populations, Frequency Curves, and Proportions 


148  (2) 

The Pervasiveness of Normal Curves 


150  (1) 

Percentiles and Standardized Scores 


150  (4) 

zScores and Familiar Intervals 


154  (8) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


156  (1) 


156  (5) 


161  (1) 

Plots, Graphs, and Pictures 


162  (18) 

WellDesigned Statistical Pictures 


163  (1) 

Pictures of Categorical Data 


163  (3) 

Pictures of Measurement Variables 


166  (1) 

Difficulties and Disasters in Plots, Graphs, and Pictures 


167  (6) 

A Checklist for Statistical Pictures 


173  (7) 

Time to Panic about Illicit Drug Use? 


173  (1) 


174  (4) 


178  (1) 


179  (1) 

Relationships Between Measurement Variables 


180  (20) 

Statistical Relationships 


181  (1) 

Strength versus Statistical Significance 


182  (2) 

Measuring Strength Through Correlation 


184  (4) 

Specifying Linear Relationships with Regression 


188  (12) 

Are Attitudes about Love and Romance Hereditary? 


191  (2) 

A Weighty Issue: Women Want Less, Men Want More 


193  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


195  (1) 


195  (4) 


199  (1) 


199  (1) 

Relationships Can Be Deceiving 


200  (18) 

Illegitimate Correlations 


201  (5) 

Legitimate Correlation Does Not Imply Causation 


206  (1) 

Some Reasons for Relationships Between Variables 


207  (4) 


211  (7) 


213  (3) 


216  (1) 


217  (1) 

Relationships Between Categorical Variables 


218  (24) 

Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables: Contingency Tables 


219  (3) 

Relative Risk, Increased Risk, and Odds 


222  (5) 

Misleading Statistics about Risk 


227  (2) 

Simpson's Paradox: The Missing Third Variable 


229  (13) 

Assessing Discrimination in Hiring and Firing 


231  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


233  (1) 


233  (7) 


240  (1) 


240  (2) 

Statistical Significance for 2 x 2 Tables 


242  (24) 

Measuring the Strength of the Relationship 


243  (2) 

Steps for Assessing Statistical Significance 


245  (2) 


247  (7) 

Practical versus Statistical Significance 


254  (12) 

Extrasensory Perception Works Best with Movies 


256  (1) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


257  (1) 


258  (6) 


264  (1) 


265  (1) 

Reading the Economic News 


266  (16) 

Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index 


267  (3) 

Uses of the Consumer Price Index 


270  (2) 

Criticisms of the Consumer Price Index 


272  (1) 


273  (9) 

Did Wages Really Go Up in the ReaganBush Years? 


276  (1) 


276  (4) 


280  (1) 


280  (2) 

Understanding and Reporting Trends over Time 


282  (13) 


283  (1) 

Components of Time Series 


284  (3) 

Seasonal Adjustments: Reporting the Consumer Price Index 


287  (1) 


288  (7) 

If You're Looking for a Job, Try May and October 


289  (2) 


291  (2) 


293  (1) 


294  (1) 

PART 3 Understanding Uncertainty in Life 


295  (58) 

Understanding Probability and LongTerm Expectations 


297  (22) 


298  (1) 

The RelativeFrequency Interpretation 


298  (2) 

The PersonalProbability Interpretation 


300  (2) 

Applying Some Simple Probability Rules 


302  (2) 


304  (3) 

LongTerm Gains, Losses, and Expectations 


307  (12) 

Birthdays and Death DaysIs There a Connection? 


310  (1) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


311  (1) 


311  (6) 


317  (1) 


317  (2) 

Psychological Influences on Personal Probability 


319  (16) 

Revisiting Personal Probability 


320  (1) 

Equivalent Probabilities; Different Decisions 


320  (2) 

How Personal Probabilities can Be Distorted 


322  (4) 

Optimism, Reluctance to Change, and Overconfidence 


326  (2) 

Calibrating Personal Probabilities of Experts 


328  (1) 

Calibrating Weather Forecasters and Physicians 


328  (1) 

Tips for Improving Your Personal Probabilities and Judgments 


329  (6) 


330  (3) 


333  (1) 


333  (2) 

When Intuition Differs from Relative Frequency 


335  (18) 

Revisiting Relative Frequency 


336  (1) 


336  (3) 


339  (1) 


340  (4) 

Streak Shooting in Basketball: Reality or Illusion? 


342  (2) 

Using Expected Values to Make Wise Decisions 


344  (9) 

How Bad Is a Bet on the British Open? 


345  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


347  (1) 


347  (4) 


351  (1) 


351  (2) 

PART 4 Making Judgments from Surveys and Experiments 


353  (168) 

The Diversity of Samples from the Same Population 


355  (18) 


356  (1) 

What to Expect of Sample Proportions 


356  (4) 

What to Expect of Sample Means 


360  (4) 

What to Expect in Other Situations 


364  (9) 

Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do? 


365  (1) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


366  (1) 


367  (4) 


371  (1) 


372  (1) 

Estimating Proportions with Confidence 


373  (16) 


374  (1) 

Three Examples of Confidence Intervals from the Media 


374  (3) 

Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Proportion 


377  (12) 

A Winning Confidence Interval Loses in Court 


380  (1) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


381  (1) 


382  (5) 


387  (1) 


388  (1) 

The Role of Confidence Intervals in Research 


389  (22) 

Confidence Intervals for Population Means 


390  (3) 

Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means 


393  (2) 

Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Confidence Intervals 


395  (4) 

Understanding Any Confidence Interval 


399  (12) 

Premenstrual Syndrome? Try Calcium 


400  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


402  (1) 


402  (7) 


409  (1) 


409  (2) 

Rejecting ChanceTesting Hypotheses in Research 


411  (22) 

Using Data to Make Decisions 


412  (2) 

The Basic Steps for Testing Hypotheses 


414  (3) 

Testing Hypotheses for Proportions 


417  (4) 

What Can Go Wrong: The Two Types of Errors 


421  (12) 

Testing for the Existence of Extrasensory Perception 


425  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


427  (1) 


427  (5) 


432  (1) 


432  (1) 

Hypothesis TestingExamples and Case Studies 


433  (19) 

How Hypothesis Tests are Reported in the News 


434  (1) 

Testing Hypotheses about Proportions and Means 


435  (5) 

Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Hypothesis Tests 


440  (12) 

An Interpretation of a pValue Not Fit to Print 


442  (2) 

For Those Who Like Formulas 


444  (1) 


445  (6) 


451  (1) 


451  (1) 

Significance, Importance, and Undetected Differences 


452  (15) 

Real Importance versus Statistical Significance 


453  (1) 

The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance 


454  (1) 

No Difference versus No Statistically Significant Difference 


455  (3) 

Seen a UFO? You May Be Healthier Than Your Friends 


457  (1) 


458  (9) 

Finding Loneliness on the Internet 


459  (1) 


460  (5) 


465  (1) 


466  (1) 

MetaAnalysis: Resolving Inconsistencies across Studies 


467  (17) 

The Need for MetaAnalysis 


468  (1) 

Two Important Decisions for the Analyst 


469  (4) 

Smoking and Reduced Fertility 


472  (1) 

Some Benefits of MetaAnalysis 


473  (2) 

Criticisms of MetaAnalysis 


475  (9) 

Controversy over Mammograms 


477  (2) 


479  (3) 


482  (1) 


482  (2) 

Ethics in Statistical Studies 


484  (22) 

Ethical Treatment of Human and Animal Participants 


484  (7) 

Assurance of Data Quality 


491  (5) 

Appropriate Statistical Analyses 


496  (2) 

Fair Reporting of Results 


498  (8) 

Science Fair Project or Fair Science Project? 


500  (2) 


502  (2) 


504  (2) 

Putting What You Have Learned to the Test 


506  (15) 

Cranberry Juice and Bladder Infections 


507  (1) 


508  (1) 

It Really Is True about Aspirin 


509  (2) 

You Can Work and Get Your Exercise at the Same Time 


511  (1) 

Sex, Alcohol, and the First Date 


511  (1) 


512  (1) 

Nursing Moms Can Exercise, Too 


513  (1) 

So You Thought Spinach Was Good For You? 


514  (1) 

Chill OutMove to Honolulu 


515  (2) 

So You Thought Hot Dogs Were Bad For You? 


517  (2) 


519  (2) 
Contents of the Appendix and Accompanying CD 

521  (4) 
Appendix of News Stories 

525  (16) 
Solutions to Selected Exercises 

541  (6) 
Index 

547  (12) 
Credits 

559  