Seeing Through Statistics (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac)

by Utts,Jessica M.

• ISBN13: 9780534394028
• ISBN10: 0534394027
• Edition: 3rd
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-06-23
• Publisher: Cengage Learning

Summary

This third edition of Jessica Utts' popular book develops statistical literacy and critical thinking through real-world applications, with an emphasis on ideas, not calculations. This text focuses on the key concepts that educated citizens need to know about statistics. These ideas are introduced in interesting applied and real contexts, without using an abundance of technicalities and calculations that only serve to confuse students.

Table of Contents

PART 1 Finding Data in Life	1	(120)
The Benefits and Risks of Using Statistics	3	(12)
Statistics	4	(1)
Heart or Hypothalamus?	4	(1)
Detecting Patterns and Relationships	5	(3)
Does Aspirin Prevent Heart Attacks?	7	(1)
Don't Be Deceived by Improper Use of Statistics	8	(2)
A Mistaken Accusation of Cheating	10	(1)
Summary and Conclusions	10	(5)
Exercises	10	(3)
Mini-Projects	13	(1)
References	14	(1)
Reading the News	15	(21)
The Educated Consumer of Data	16	(1)
Origins of News Stories	16	(2)
How to be a Statistics Sleuth: Seven Critical Components	18	(3)
Four Hypothetical Examples of Bad Reports	21	(9)
Who Suffers from Hangovers?	28	(2)
Planning Your Own Study: Defining the Components in Advance	30	(6)
Brooks Shoes Brings Flawed Study to Court	31	(1)
Exercises	32	(3)
Mini-Projects	35	(1)
References	35	(1)
Measurements, Mistakes, and Misunderstandings	36	(21)
Simple Measures Don't Exist	37	(1)
It's All in the Wording	37	(4)
No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide	40	(1)
Open or Closed Questions: Should Choices Be Given?	41	(2)
Defining What Is Being Measured	43	(3)
Questions in Advertising	45	(1)
Defining a Common Language	46	(11)
Exercises	51	(4)
Mini-Projects	55	(1)
References	56	(1)
How to Get a Good Sample	57	(24)
Common Research Strategies	58	(3)
Defining a Common Language	61	(1)
The Beauty of Sampling	62	(2)
Simple Random Sampling	64	(1)
Other Sampling Methods	65	(4)
Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling	69	(12)
The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936	73	(1)
Exercises	73	(6)
Mini-Projects	79	(1)
References	80	(1)
Experiments and Observational Studies	81	(26)
Defining a Common Language	82	(3)
Designing a Good Experiment	85	(5)
Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches	89	(1)
Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments	90	(3)
Exercise Yourself to Sleep	93	(1)
Designing a Good Observational Experiment	93	(3)
Baldness and Heart Attacks	94	(2)
Difficulties and Disasters in Observational Studies	96	(2)
Random Sample versus Random Assignment	98	(9)
Exercises	100	(5)
Mini-Projects	105	(1)
References	106	(1)
Getting the Big Picture	107	(14)
Final Questions	107	(14)
Mozart, Relaxation, and Performance on Spatial Tasks	108	(2)
Meditation and Aging	110	(3)
Drinking, Driving, and the Supreme Court	113	(3)
Smoking During Pregnancy and Child's IQ	116	(2)
For Class Discussion: Guns and Homicides at Home	118	(1)
Mini-Projects	119	(1)
References	119	(2)
PART 2 Finding Life in Data	121	(174)
Summarizing and Displaying Measurement Data	123	(24)
Turning Data into Information	124	(1)
Picturing Data: Stemplots and Histograms	125	(7)
Five Useful Numbers: A Summary	132	(2)
Boxplots	134	(2)
Traditional Measures: Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation	136	(2)
Caution: Being Average Isn't Normal	138	(9)
Detecting Exam Cheating with a Histogram	139	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	140	(1)
Exercises	141	(4)
Mini-Projects	145	(1)
References	146	(1)
Bell-Shaped Curves and Other Shapes	147	(15)
Populations, Frequency Curves, and Proportions	148	(2)
The Pervasiveness of Normal Curves	150	(1)
Percentiles and Standardized Scores	150	(4)
z-Scores and Familiar Intervals	154	(8)
For Those Who Like Formulas	156	(1)
Exercises	156	(5)
References	161	(1)
Plots, Graphs, and Pictures	162	(18)
Well-Designed Statistical Pictures	163	(1)
Pictures of Categorical Data	163	(3)
Pictures of Measurement Variables	166	(1)
Difficulties and Disasters in Plots, Graphs, and Pictures	167	(6)
A Checklist for Statistical Pictures	173	(7)
Time to Panic about Illicit Drug Use?	173	(1)
Exercises	174	(4)
Mini-Projects	178	(1)
References	179	(1)
Relationships Between Measurement Variables	180	(20)
Statistical Relationships	181	(1)
Strength versus Statistical Significance	182	(2)
Measuring Strength Through Correlation	184	(4)
Specifying Linear Relationships with Regression	188	(12)
Are Attitudes about Love and Romance Hereditary?	191	(2)
A Weighty Issue: Women Want Less, Men Want More	193	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	195	(1)
Exercises	195	(4)
Mini-Projects	199	(1)
References	199	(1)
Relationships Can Be Deceiving	200	(18)
Illegitimate Correlations	201	(5)
Legitimate Correlation Does Not Imply Causation	206	(1)
Some Reasons for Relationships Between Variables	207	(4)
Confirming Causation	211	(7)
Exercises	213	(3)
Mini-Projects	216	(1)
References	217	(1)
Relationships Between Categorical Variables	218	(24)
Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables: Contingency Tables	219	(3)
Relative Risk, Increased Risk, and Odds	222	(5)
Misleading Statistics about Risk	227	(2)
Simpson's Paradox: The Missing Third Variable	229	(13)
Assessing Discrimination in Hiring and Firing	231	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	233	(1)
Exercises	233	(7)
Mini-Projects	240	(1)
References	240	(2)
Statistical Significance for 2 x 2 Tables	242	(24)
Measuring the Strength of the Relationship	243	(2)
Steps for Assessing Statistical Significance	245	(2)
The Chi-Square Test	247	(7)
Practical versus Statistical Significance	254	(12)
Extrasensory Perception Works Best with Movies	256	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	257	(1)
Exercises	258	(6)
Mini-Projects	264	(1)
References	265	(1)
Reading the Economic News	266	(16)
Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index	267	(3)
Uses of the Consumer Price Index	270	(2)
Criticisms of the Consumer Price Index	272	(1)
Economic Indicators	273	(9)
Did Wages Really Go Up in the Reagan--Bush Years?	276	(1)
Exercises	276	(4)
Mini-Projects	280	(1)
References	280	(2)
Understanding and Reporting Trends over Time	282	(13)
Time Series	283	(1)
Components of Time Series	284	(3)
Seasonal Adjustments: Reporting the Consumer Price Index	287	(1)
Cautions and Checklist	288	(7)
If You're Looking for a Job, Try May and October	289	(2)
Exercises	291	(2)
Mini-Projects	293	(1)
References	294	(1)
PART 3 Understanding Uncertainty in Life	295	(58)
Understanding Probability and Long-Term Expectations	297	(22)
Probability	298	(1)
The Relative-Frequency Interpretation	298	(2)
The Personal-Probability Interpretation	300	(2)
Applying Some Simple Probability Rules	302	(2)
When Will It Happen?	304	(3)
Long-Term Gains, Losses, and Expectations	307	(12)
Birthdays and Death Days---Is There a Connection?	310	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	311	(1)
Exercises	311	(6)
Mini-Projects	317	(1)
References	317	(2)
Psychological Influences on Personal Probability	319	(16)
Revisiting Personal Probability	320	(1)
Equivalent Probabilities; Different Decisions	320	(2)
How Personal Probabilities can Be Distorted	322	(4)
Optimism, Reluctance to Change, and Overconfidence	326	(2)
Calibrating Personal Probabilities of Experts	328	(1)
Calibrating Weather Forecasters and Physicians	328	(1)
Tips for Improving Your Personal Probabilities and Judgments	329	(6)
Exercises	330	(3)
Mini-Projects	333	(1)
References	333	(2)
When Intuition Differs from Relative Frequency	335	(18)
Revisiting Relative Frequency	336	(1)
Coincidences	336	(3)
The Gambler's Fallacy	339	(1)
Confusion of the Inverse	340	(4)
Streak Shooting in Basketball: Reality or Illusion?	342	(2)
Using Expected Values to Make Wise Decisions	344	(9)
How Bad Is a Bet on the British Open?	345	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	347	(1)
Exercises	347	(4)
Mini-Projects	351	(1)
References	351	(2)
PART 4 Making Judgments from Surveys and Experiments	353	(168)
The Diversity of Samples from the Same Population	355	(18)
Setting the Stage	356	(1)
What to Expect of Sample Proportions	356	(4)
What to Expect of Sample Means	360	(4)
What to Expect in Other Situations	364	(9)
Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do?	365	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	366	(1)
Exercises	367	(4)
Mini-Projects	371	(1)
References	372	(1)
Estimating Proportions with Confidence	373	(16)
Confidence Intervals	374	(1)
Three Examples of Confidence Intervals from the Media	374	(3)
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Proportion	377	(12)
A Winning Confidence Interval Loses in Court	380	(1)
For Those Who Like Formulas	381	(1)
Exercises	382	(5)
Mini-Projects	387	(1)
References	388	(1)
The Role of Confidence Intervals in Research	389	(22)
Confidence Intervals for Population Means	390	(3)
Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means	393	(2)
Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Confidence Intervals	395	(4)
Understanding Any Confidence Interval	399	(12)
Premenstrual Syndrome? Try Calcium	400	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	402	(1)
Exercises	402	(7)
Mini-Projects	409	(1)
References	409	(2)
Rejecting Chance---Testing Hypotheses in Research	411	(22)
Using Data to Make Decisions	412	(2)
The Basic Steps for Testing Hypotheses	414	(3)
Testing Hypotheses for Proportions	417	(4)
What Can Go Wrong: The Two Types of Errors	421	(12)
Testing for the Existence of Extrasensory Perception	425	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	427	(1)
Exercises	427	(5)
Mini-Projects	432	(1)
References	432	(1)
Hypothesis Testing---Examples and Case Studies	433	(19)
How Hypothesis Tests are Reported in the News	434	(1)
Testing Hypotheses about Proportions and Means	435	(5)
Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Hypothesis Tests	440	(12)
An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print	442	(2)
For Those Who Like Formulas	444	(1)
Exercises	445	(6)
Mini-Projects	451	(1)
References	451	(1)
Significance, Importance, and Undetected Differences	452	(15)
Real Importance versus Statistical Significance	453	(1)
The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance	454	(1)
No Difference versus No Statistically Significant Difference	455	(3)
Seen a UFO? You May Be Healthier Than Your Friends	457	(1)
A Summary of Warnings	458	(9)
Finding Loneliness on the Internet	459	(1)
Exercises	460	(5)
Mini-Projects	465	(1)
References	466	(1)
Meta-Analysis: Resolving Inconsistencies across Studies	467	(17)
The Need for Meta-Analysis	468	(1)
Two Important Decisions for the Analyst	469	(4)
Smoking and Reduced Fertility	472	(1)
Some Benefits of Meta-Analysis	473	(2)
Criticisms of Meta-Analysis	475	(9)
Controversy over Mammograms	477	(2)
Exercises	479	(3)
Mini-Projects	482	(1)
References	482	(2)
Ethics in Statistical Studies	484	(22)
Ethical Treatment of Human and Animal Participants	484	(7)
Assurance of Data Quality	491	(5)
Appropriate Statistical Analyses	496	(2)
Fair Reporting of Results	498	(8)
Science Fair Project or Fair Science Project?	500	(2)
Exercises	502	(2)
References	504	(2)
Putting What You Have Learned to the Test	506	(15)
Cranberry Juice and Bladder Infections	507	(1)
Children on the Go	508	(1)
It Really Is True about Aspirin	509	(2)
You Can Work and Get Your Exercise at the Same Time	511	(1)
Sex, Alcohol, and the First Date	511	(1)
Unpalatable Pate	512	(1)
Nursing Moms Can Exercise, Too	513	(1)
So You Thought Spinach Was Good For You?	514	(1)
Chill Out---Move to Honolulu	515	(2)
So You Thought Hot Dogs Were Bad For You?	517	(2)
References	519	(2)
Contents of the Appendix and Accompanying CD	521	(4)
Appendix of News Stories	525	(16)
Solutions to Selected Exercises	541	(6)
Index	547	(12)
Credits	559