SIPRI Yearbook 1999 Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security

by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

• ISBN13: 9780198296461
• ISBN10: 0198296460
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-12-30
• Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Summary

This 30th edition of the Yearbook analyzes developments in 1998 in areas such as: security and conflicts; military spending and armaments; and non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament. It also contains extensive annexes on the implementation of arms control and disarmament agreements and a chronology of security- and arms control-related events.

Table of Contents

Preface	xv
Acronyms	xvi
Glossary	xx
Ragnhild Ferm
Connie Wall
Introduction: Rethinking the contemporary security system	1	(14)
Adam Daniel Rotfeld
Old questions, new problems International military interventions: legal, illegal and non-legal	2	(3)
A cooperative security order	5	(1)
Strategic perspectives	6	(1)
SIPRI findings	7	(5)
Conclusions	12	(3)
Part I. Security and Conflicts, 1998
Major armed conflicts	15	(62)
Margareta Sollenberg
Peter Wallensteen
Andres Jato
Global patterns of major armed conflicts, 1989--98	15	(1)
Changes in the table of conflicts for 1998 New conflicts---Conflicts recorded in 1997 that were not recorded for 1998	16	(1)
Regional patterns of major armed conflicts, 1989--98	17	(3)
Conflict patterns in Africa Major armed conflicts in Africa in 1998---Conflict complexes---Assessment	20	(14)
Regional distribution of locations with at least one major armed conflict, 1989--98	18	(1)
Regional distribution, number and types of major armed conflicts, 1989--98	18	(4)
Map of Africa	22	(4)
Appendix 1A. Major armed conflicts, 1998	26	(2)
Margareta Sollenberg
Staffan Angman
Ylva Blondel
Ann-Sofi Jakobsson
Andres Jato
Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 1998	28	(6)
Appendix 1B. The Kashmir conflict	34	(1)
Sten Widmalm
Introduction	34	(1)
Background to the conflict Kashmir at the time of independence---Kashmir between interstate conflicts---The road to democracy and peace---Institutional breakdown in Jammu and Kashmir, 1982--89	34	(6)
A decade of violence	40	(2)
The Kashmir conflict in 1998 Farooq Abdullah Kashmir and the Bharatiya Janata Party Government---Violence in Kashmir in 1998	42	(4)
Conclusions	46	(1)
The regions of Kashmir, 1947	35	(1)
Kashmir in 1998	36	(11)
Appendix 1C. The Kosovo conflict	47	(1)
Stefan Troebst
Introduction	47	(2)
Background	49	(1)
The war over Kosovo	50	(8)
The informal ceasefire	58	(3)
Conclusions	61	(2)
Map of Kosovo	48	(15)
Appendix 1D. The Tajikistan conflict	63	(1)
Irina Zviagelskaya
Introduction	63	(1)
The political issues	64	(3)
The rebellion in Leninabad: a new balance of forces	67	(1)
The military issues	68	(2)
The return of refugees	70	(1)
Challenges to security: terrorism and drug trafficking	71	(2)
The Afghan factor	73	(1)
The Uzbek factor	73	(1)
The Russian presence	74	(1)
Conclusions	74	(3)
Map of Tajikistan	64	(13)
Armed conflict prevention, management and resolution	77	(92)
Jaana Karhilo
Introduction	77	(1)
The United Nations The Secretary-General and the Secretariat---The Security Council and the General Assembly---International legal mechanisms	78	(12)
UN peacekeeping operations Peacekeeping operations---Continuing peacekeeping reforms---Peacekeeping finance---National and cooperative efforts to improve capability	90	(17)
UN peace enforcement measures Sanctions---Military enforcement	107	(2)
Regional and other multilateral organizations Europe and the CIS---Africa---Latin America---Asia	109	(26)
Conclusions	135	(24)
Cases before the International Court of Justice, 1998	86	(20)
Peacekeeping exercises held under PFP auspices in 1998	106
UN peacekeeping operations in the field, as of 31 December 1998	92	(45)
Appendix 2A. Multilateral peace missions, 1998	137	(1)
Johan Sjoberg
Multilateral peace missions	138	(21)
Appendix 2B. The Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement	159	(1)
Ian Anthony
Introduction	159	(1)
Constitutional issues and new institutional arrangements Arrangements for Northern Ireland---Arrangements for the island of Ireland---Arrangements between different parts of the British Isles---Arrangements between the Irish and British governments	160	(4)
Security	164	(1)
Arms decommissioning	164	(1)
Review of criminal procedures, policing and justice	165	(2)
Conclusions	167	(2)
The Middle East	169	(26)
Peter Jones
Anders Jagerskog
Introduction	169	(1)
The peace process The Israeli-Palestinian track---The Israeli-Syrian and Israeli---Lebanese tracks---The Israeli---Jordanian track---The multilateral track	169	(13)
North Africa and the Mediterranean	182	(2)
The situation in the Persian Gulf The situation in Iran---The situation in Iraq	184	(4)
Conclusions	188	(7)
Appendix 3A. Documents on the Middle East peace process
The Wye River Memorandum	189	(6)
Russia: military reform	195	(18)
Alexei G. Arbatov
Introduction	195	(1)
The new domestic and external security environment Russia's military requirements---Financial resources for the military	196	(5)
The basic principles of the military reform	201	(1)
Reduction and reorganization of the armed forces	202	(2)
The crash of 1998 and military reform	204	(5)
The draft 1999 budget and military reform	209	(2)
Conclusions	211	(2)
Russian `national defence' as a share of GNP and of the federal budget, 1994--99	200	(13)
The Caspian Sea Basin: the security dimensions	213	(22)
Gennady Chufrin
Introduction	213	(1)
Caspian oil and gas reserves	213	(2)
The Caspian Sea legal regime	215	(2)
Oil and gas routes from the Caspian Sea	217	(6)
The threat of militarization of the Caspian Basin	223	(4)
Local conflicts The North Caucasus---The Transcaucasus	227	(7)
Conclusions	234	(1)
Map showing the routes of existing and planned oil pipelines from the Caspian Basin	220	(15)
Europe: the institutionalized security process	235	(34)
Adam Daniel Rotfeld
Introduction	235	(2)
Europe and the United States	237	(1)
NATO: a new role and mission Transformation, adaptation and enlargement---NATO, Russia and adaptation of the CFE Treaty---An `open door' policy without a second tranche?	238	(12)
The European Union: security and defence policy? The future of European defence---EU enlargement	250	(6)
The OSCE: a new dimension of security cooperation An instrument for democracy and conflict prevention---The OSCE and other European security organizations---The OSCE Security Model	256	(5)
Conclusions	261	(8)
The overlapping membership of multilateral Euro-Atlantic security organizations, as of 1 April 1999	236	(27)
Appendix 6A. Documents on European security
Oslo Ministerial Declaration---British-French Joint Declaration on European Defence---Act of Ratification of the North Atlantic Treaty by Poland	263	(6)
Part II. Military spending and armaments, 1998
Military expenditure	269	(82)
Elisabeth Skons
Agnes Courades Allebeck
Evamaria Loose-Weintraub
Petter Stalenheim
Introduction	269	(3)
Africa Conflict-related increases of military expenditure---Military expenditure reductions in South Africa	272	(5)
The Americas The United States	277	(6)
Asia South Asia---East Asia---Central Asia	283	(9)
The Middle East	292	(1)
Europe The Russian Federation---Western Europe	293	(34)
Regional military expenditure estimates, 1989--98	270	(10)
The US defence budget: budget authority and outlays, FYs 1985--2003	280	(1)
The US FY 2000 defence budget: budget authority, FY 1999--2005	281	(3)
South Asia: military expenditure, 1989--98	284	(2)
East Asia: military expenditure, 1989--98	286	(3)
Central Asia: military expenditure, 1995--98	289	(6)
The Russian Federation: military expenditure, 1992--99	295	(1)
The Russian defence budget for 1998	296	(4)
Appendix 7A. Tables of military expenditure	300	(1)
Elisabeth Skons
Agnes Courades Allebeck
Evamaria Loose-Weintraub
Petter Stalenheim
Military expenditure by region, in constant US dollars, 1989--98	300	(2)
Military expenditure by region and country, in local currency, 1989--98	302	(7)
Military expenditure by region and country, in constant US dollars, 1989--98	309	(7)
Military expenditure by region and country, as percentage of gross domestic product, 1989--97	316	(8)
Appendix 7B. Tables of NATO military expenditure	324	(1)
NATO distribution of military expenditure by category, 1989--98	324	(3)
Appendix 7C. Sources and methods for military expenditure data	327	(1)
Purpose of the data	327	(1)
Sources	327	(1)
Methods	328	(4)
Definition of military expenditure---Calculations---Estimates and the use of brackets---Purchasing power parity rates Comparison of military expenditure by market exchange rates and purchasing power parity rates, selected countries, 1995	332	(2)
Appendix 7D. The military expenditure of China, 1989--98	334	(1)
Shaoguang Wang
Introduction	334	(1)
China's official military budget	335	(3)
Military expenditure in other budget categories People's Armed Police---Defence RDT&E---Construction---Subsidies to demobilized military personnel and their dependants---Subsidies to military production---Special appropriations for arms imports	338	(6)
Military expenditure deriving from extra-budgetary sources Earnings from domestic business activities---Arms exports	344	(3)
China's total military expenditure	347	(2)
Conclusions	349	(2)
Official Chinese central and local expenditures for defence, 1989--98	335	(2)
Spending categories in the Chinese official defence budget	337	(3)
Estimated off-budget military expenditure of China, 1989--98	340	(6)
Chinese arms imports and exports, 1989--98	346	(2)
China's military burden, 1989--98	348	(3)
Military research and development	351	(20)
Eric Arnett
Introduction	351	(2)
Sources of information	353	(2)
India The Light Combat Aircraft---The nuclear submarine and the Sagarika missile---The Agni ballistic missile	355	(4)
Iran, Israel and ballistic missile defence	359	(3)
Japan	362	(1)
China	363	(1)
Western Europe The United Kingdom---Germany---Spain---France	364	(5)
Conclusions	369	(2)
Official figures for government military R&D expenditure	352	(1)
Government expenditure on military R & D in select countries, 1986--97	353	(1)
Appropriations for major US R & D programmes, 1999	354	(17)
Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan	371	(16)
Eric Arnett
Introduction	371	(1)
Technical information related to the tests India---Pakistan	372	(2)
Reasons for the tests India---Pakistan	374	(8)
Military implications Expanded weaponization?---The effect of withdrawing military cooperation on India's military power	382	(3)
Conclusions	385	(2)
Expenditure on research and development by the Indian Government, fiscal years 1965/66--1994/95	375	(3)
Indian and Pakistani imports of major conventional weapons, 1960--97	378	(3)
Expenditure on atomic energy research by the Pakistani Government, fiscal years 1979/80--1995/96	381	(6)
Arms production	387	(34)
Elisabeth Skons
Reinhilde Weidacher
Introduction	387	(1)
The SIPRI top 100	388	(3)
Russia Institutional framework	391	(3)
Restructuring in the USA and Western Europe The USA---Western Europe---Transatlantic military industrial links	394	(13)
The global structure of arms production	407	(14)
Regional/national shares of arms sales for the top 100 arms-producing companies in the OECD and int he developing countries in 1997	389	(3)
Output of the Russian arms industry, 1991--98	392	(4)
US companies whose arms sales changed the most 1993--97	396	(4)
Cross-border joint ventures in the West European arms industry, January 1998---January 1999	400	(2)
Partner companies in Airbus Industrie and other potential partners in the European Aerospace and Defence Company (EADC), December 1998	402	(2)
Restructuring of the French arms industry, 1998	404	(4)
Arms production 1996: the 10 largest arms-producing countries excluding China	408	(2)
National arms production in the six major arms-producing countries, change 1990--96	410
US aerospace industry consolidation	395	(17)
Appendix 10A. The 100 largest arms-producing companies, 1997	412	(1)
Elisabeth Skons
Reinhilde Weidacher
SIPRI Arms Industry Network
The 100 largest arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries, 1997	413	(8)
Transfers of major conventional weapons	421	(98)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Introduction	421	(2)
Main developments in 1998 The suppliers of major conventional weapons---The recipients of major conventional weapons---Developments in arms transfer policy in 1998	423	(8)
Arms transfer dynamics and the Cyprus crisis	431	(5)
International embargoes on arms transfers	436	(3)
The EU Code of Conduct Transparency	439	(3)
National and international transparency in arms transfers Official national data on arms exports---The UN Register of Conventional Arms	442	(59)
The 31 leading suppliers of major conventional weapons, 1994--98	424	(2)
The leading recipients of major conventional weapons from the six major suppliers, 1994--98	426	(2)
The 72 leading recipients of major conventional weapons, 1994--98	428	(4)
Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, 1994--98	432	(5)
International arms embargoes in effect, 1994--98	437	(7)
Official data on arms exports, 1993--97	444
The trend in transfers of major conventional weapons, 1984--98	422	(28)
Appendix 11A. The volume of transfers of major conventional weapons, 1989--98	450	(1)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Volume of imports of major of major conventional weapons	450	(1)
Volume of exports of major conventional weapons	451	(3)
Appendix 11B. Register of the transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 1998	454	(47)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Appendix 11C. Sources and methods	501	(1)
The SIPRI sources	501	(1)
Selection criteria	501	(1)
The SIPRI trend-indicator value	502	(4)
Appendix 11D. The European Union Code of Conduct for Arms Exports	503	(3)
Appendix 11E. Efforts to control the international trade in light weapons	506	(1)
Bernard Adam
Introduction	506	(1)
International initiatives The UN Panel of Governmental Experts on Small Arms---Guidelines for international arms transfers---The UN Security Council and light weapons in Africa---Transparency in light weapons transfers	507	(4)
Regional initiatives The European Union---The Organization of American States---Initiatives in Africa	511	(4)
National and other initiatives	515	(1)
Conclusions	516	(3)
Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 1998
Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation	519	(46)
Shannon Kile
Introduction	519	(1)
The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests International reactions---Talks on reducing nuclear dangers in South Asia---The NPT regime after the nuclear tests	520	(5)
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty	525	(4)
A ban on the production of fissile material	529	(2)
Other developments The NPT Preparatory Committee---The US---North Korean Agreed Framework	531	(4)
US---Russian nuclear arms control Implementation of the START I Treaty---The START II Treaty---Cooperative strategic warning	535	(5)
The ABM Treaty and ballistic missile defence The ABM Treaty and US national missile defences---Other ABM Treaty controversies	540	(5)
Conclusions	545	(11)
START I aggregate numbers of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and accountable warheads, 1 July 1998	535	(12)
Appendix 12A. Tables of nuclear forces	547	(1)
Robert S. Norris
William M. Arkin
US strategic nuclear forces, January 1999	547	(3)
Russian strategic nuclear forces, January 1999	550	(2)
British nuclear forces, January 1999	552	(2)
French nuclear forces, January 1999	554	(1)
Chinese nuclear forces, January 1999	555	(1)
Appendix 12B. Nuclear explosions, 1945--98	556	(1)
Ragnhild Ferm
Introduction	556	(1)
The 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests	556	(3)
Environmental consequences of nuclear explosions	559	(1)
Announced subcritical experiments	560	(1)
About the tables	561	(4)
Nuclear explosions in 1998	562	(1)
Estimated number of nuclear explosions, 1945--98	562	(3)
Chemical and biological weapon developments and arms control	565	(48)
Jean Pascal Zanders
Elisabeth M. French
Natalie Pauwels
Introduction	565	(1)
Chemical weapon disarmament Implementing the CWC---Destruction of chemical weapons and related facilities---Old chemical weapons---Abandoned chemical weapons	566	(11)
Biological weapon disarmament	577	(3)
Chemical and biological weapon proliferation concerns The strike against an alleged CW factory in Sudan---Russian BW proliferation concerns---South Africa's CBW programmes---The 1992 EI AI aircraft crash in Amsterdam---The Cuban biological warfare allegation	580	(6)
UNSCOM developments	586	(7)
Countering CBW terrorism International cooperative efforts against CBW terrorism---The US counter-terrorism programme	593	(2)
Conclusions	595	(1)
UNSCOM inspections, October 1997-December 1998	588	(8)
Appendix 13A. Benefits and threats of developments in biotechnology and genetic engineering	596	(1)
Malcolm Dando
Introduction	596	(1)
Advances in scientific knowledge and genome mapping	597	(3)
Biotechnology	600	(1)
Medical and health improvements	601	(3)
Genomic diversity and DNA fingerprinting	604	(3)
The possible use of biotechnology for political and weapon purposes	607	(3)
Conclusions	610	(3)
Some goals of the Human Genome Project (HGP) for 1998--2003	599	(3)
US clinical trials of gene therapy, as of early 1998	602	(7)
US Department of Defense view of the potential impact of biotechnology and genetic engineering	609	(4)
Conventional arms control	613	(54)
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Introduction	613	(1)
Conventional arms control in Europe: the CFE Treaty Treaty operation and implementation issues---Slow progress at the negotiations	614	(19)
Regional arms control in Europe Implementation of the Florence Agreement---Negotiations under Article V of the Agreement on Regional Stabilization	633	(3)
The Open Skies Treaty	636	(1)
Conventional arms control endeavours outside Europe Asia---Pacific---Latin America	637	(5)
Conclusions	642	(2)
Destruction or conversion of Russian conventional armaments and equipment beyond the Urals to civilian use, valid as of May 1998	615	(1)
CFE ceilings and holdings, as of 1 January 1999	616	(1)
Reductions of TLE belonging to naval infantry and coastal defence forces required by the legally binding Soviet pledge of 14 June 1991, as of May 1998	617	(4)
NATO's illustrative ceilings for ground TLE, December 1997	621	(1)
Projected and adjusted levels for the territorial ceilings of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, as of 30 March 1999	622	(22)
Appendix 14A. Confidence-and security-building measures in Europe	644	(1)
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Pia Kronestedt
Introduction	644	(1)
Vienna Document CSBMs The Annual Implementation Assessment Meeting---Improving the Vienna Document 1994---The implementation record for 1998	644	(5)
Regional CSBMs Confidence-building measures in the Aegean Sea region---Implementation of the Agreement on CSBMs in Bosnia and Herzegovina---The Baltic Sea region	649	(4)
Seminar on Defence Policies and Military Doctrines	653	(1)
Conclusions	654	(1)
Existing and proposed notification and observation thresholds for and constraints on military activities	647	(1)
Calendar of planned notifiable military activities in 1999, exchanged by 18 December 1998	648	(7)
Appendix 14B. The ban on anti-personnel mines	655	(1)
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Introduction	655	(1)
The APM Convention	656	(2)
Amended Protocol II	658	(1)
The Conference on Disarmament	658	(1)
Demining Estimates of the numbers of landmines	659	(3)
Conclusions	662	(5)
The status of the APM Convention, as of 29 April 1999	657	(6)
Appendix 14C. North Atlantic Council statement on CFE	663	(4)
Non-cooperative responses to proliferation: multilateral dimensions	667	(74)
Ian Anthony
Elisabeth M. French
Introduction A categorization of non-cooperative responses to proliferation events	667	(5)
Iraq: sanctions and use of force as instruments of disarmament and non-proliferation Sanctions related to disarmament and non-proliferation	672	(5)
International response to nuclear tests by India and Pakistan Economic Sanctions---Export controls and India and Pakistan	677	(13)
Conclusions	690	(2)
Appendix 15A. Multilateral weapon and technology export controls	692	(1)
Ian Anthony
Jean Pascal Zanders
Introduction	692	(1)
The Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Zangger Committee	692	(2)
The Australia Group	694	(1)
The Missile Technology Control Regime	695	(4)
The Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technology	699	(4)
Membership of multilateral weapon and technology export control regimes, as of 1 January 1999	693	(10)
Annexes
Annexe A. Arms control and disarmament agreements	703	(22)
Ragnhild Ferm
Annexe B. Chronology 1998	725	(10)
Ragnhild Ferm
About the contributors	735	(6)
Abstracts	741	(7)
Errata	748	(1)
Index	749