SIPRI Yearbook 2000 Armaments, Disarmaments, and International Security

by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

• ISBN13: 9780199241620
• ISBN10: 0199241627
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-11-09
• Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Summary

The 31st edition of the Yearbook analyzes developments during 1998 in security and conflicts, military spending and armaments, nonproliferation, and arms control and disarmament.

Table of Contents

Dedication	xv
Preface	xvii
Acronyms	xviii
Glossary	xxiv
Ragnhild Ferm
Connie Wall
Christer Berggren
Introduction: In search of a global security system for the 21st century	1	(1)
Adam Daniel Rotfeld
The key emerging trends	1	(1)
Divergent concepts of the world structure	2	(2)
Regional developments	4	(1)
A functional and pragmatic approach	5	(2)
The Stockholm Agenda for Arms Control	7	(1)
SIPRI findings	8	(4)
Conclusions	12	(3)
Part I. Security and conflicts, 1999
Major armed conflicts	15	(62)
Taylor B. Seybolt
Introduction	15	(3)
Major armed conflicts between states Eritrea--Ethiopia--India--Pakistan	18	(4)
Major armed conflicts within states Conflicts that involved foreign military intervention--Conflicts without foreign military intervention	22	(25)
Conclusions	47	(3)
Regional distribution, number and types of major armed conflicts, 1990-99	16	(1)
Regional distribution and total number of major armed conflicts, 1990-99	16	(34)
Major armed conflicts, 1999	50	(9)
Margareta Sollenberg
Staffan Angman
Ylva Blondel
Ann-Sofi Jakobsson Hatay
Andres Jato
Thomas Ohlson
Peter Wallensteen
Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 1999	52	(7)
The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo	59	(1)
Taylor B. Seybolt
Introduction	59	(2)
The outbreak of war in 1998 Underlying and immediate causes--Rebel advances and the entrance of government allies	61	(8)
Stalemate	69	(2)
The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement	71	(2)
The regional context	73	(1)
Conclusions	74	(3)
Armed parties in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as of 1999	66
Map of the Democratic Republic of Congo showing territory held by each rebel group as of December 1999	60	(17)
Armed conflict prevention, management and resolution	77	(80)
Renata Dwan
Introduction	77	(1)
The United Nations	78	(19)
Regional organizations	97	(18)
Multinational coalitions	115	(5)
Other players	120	(11)
Conclusions	131	(4)
Statistics on UN peacekeeping operations in 1990-99	96	(39)
Multilateral peace missions, 1999	135	(22)
Renata Dwan
Thomas Papworth
Marta Reuter
Henry Wathen
Multilateral peace missions	136	(21)
Russia: separatism and conflicts in the North Caucasus	157	(24)
Gennady Chufrin
Introduction	157	(1)
Separatism on ethnic grounds	157	(5)
The Chechen conflict	162	(16)
Conclusions	178	(3)
Map of the Caucasus	158	(14)
Map of Chechnya	172	(9)
Europe: the new transatlantic agenda	181	(50)
Adam Daniel Rotfeld
Introduction	181	(2)
NATO in 1999: new strategies, old structures	183	(12)
The European Union: a common security and defence policy	195	(6)
The OSCE: managing change in the new century	201	(7)
Conclusions	208	(1)
The overlapping membership of multilateral Euro--Atlantic security organizations, as of 1 January 2000	182	(27)
Documents on European security	209	(22)
Part II. Military spending and armaments, 1999
Military expenditure	231	(68)
Elisabeth Skons
Evamaria Loose-Weintraub
Wuyi Omitoogun
Petter Stalenheim
Introduction	231	(1)
Global and regional trends and patterns Regional military expenditure--The major spenders	232	(4)
The economic burden of military expenditure The cost and financing of wars	236	(4)
Central America	240	(3)
South Asia	243	(1)
East Asia	244	(4)
Russia	248	(7)
Central and Eastern Europe	255	(1)
The USA	256	(4)
Regional military expenditure estimates, 1990-99	234	(2)
The 15 major spenders in 1999	236	(1)
The economic burden of military and social expenditure, 1995-96	237	(1)
Military expenditures as a share of GDP, select countries, 1990-98	238	(4)
Central America: military expenditure and other security expenditure, 1999	242	(4)
Chinese military expenditure, 1995-99	246	(1)
East Asia: military expenditure in five countries, 1990-99	247	(2)
The Russian Federation: military expenditure, 1992-2000	249	(1)
Russian defence budgets, disaggregated, 1995--2000	250	(4)
Military and arms procurement expenditure in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, 1995-99	254	(4)
US military expenditure, budget authority by function, FY 2000-05	258	(2)
Tables of military expenditure	260	(25)
Elisabeth Skons
Evamaria Loose--Weintraub
Wyui Omitoogun
Petter Stalenheim
Military expenditure by region, in constant US dollars, 1990-99	260	(4)
Military expenditure by region and country, in local currency, 1990-99	264	(6)
Military expenditure by region and country, in constant US dollars, 1990-99	270	(6)
Military expenditure by region and country, as percentage of gross domestic product, 1990-99	276	(9)
Table of NATO military expenditure	285	(3)
NATO distribution of military expenditure by category, 1990-99	285	(3)
Sources and methods for military expenditure data	288	(1)
Purpose of the data	288	(1)
Sources	288	(1)
Methods	289	(2)
Military expenditure in Africa	291	(1)
Wuyi Omitoogun
Introduction	291	(1)
The financing of armed conflicts	292	(1)
Countries on whose territory conflict is taking place	293	(2)
Countries siding with a faction in war	295	(3)
Countries involved in peacekeeping operations	298	(1)
African military expenditure, 1990-99	292	(7)
Arms production	299	(40)
Elisabeth Skons
Reinhilde Weidacher
Introduction	299	(2)
The SIPRI `top 100'	301	(2)
The concentration of arms production	303	(11)
Trends in arms production during the 1990s	314	(6)
Russia	320	(7)
Regional/national shares of arms sales for the top 100 arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries in 1998	302	(6)
The structure of the West European arms industry in early 2000	308	(6)
Major arms--producing companies and foreign ownership in Australia and South Africa, 1999	314	(1)
Trends in national arms production, 1987-98	315	(1)
Trends in government expenditure on military R&D, 1990-98	316	(1)
Trends in the value of combined arms sales and in average company size of the top 100, top 50, top 10 and top 5 arms--producing companies, 1990-98	317	(1)
Companies which had the largest increase in the military share in sales, 1990-98	318	(1)
Trends in the arms exports in total arms sales in the USA, the UK and France, 1990-98	319	(1)
Changes in the share of exports in total arms sales in major arms-- producing companies, 1989-91 and 1996-98	320	(2)
Russia: output and employment in the defence complex (VPK), 1991-99	322	(4)
The agencies of the Russian arms industry, autumn 1999	326	(1)
The 100 largest arms-producing companies, 1998	327	(7)
Reinhilde Weidacher
The 100 largest arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries, 1998	328	(6)
Major acquisitions by West European and US arms-producing companies, 1998-.January 2000	334	(5)
Major acquisitions among US arms-producing companies, 1998-January 2000	334	(2)
International acquisitions among major West European arms-producing companies, 1998-January 2000	336	(1)
Transatlantic acquisitions among major arms producing companies, 1998-January 2000	337	(1)
Acquisitions by Western arms-producing companies in other regions, 1998-January 2000	338	(1)
Transfers of major conventional weapons	339	(104)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Introduction	339	(1)
The major suppliers and recipients	340	(4)
Major arms transfers and conflict	344	(5)
Economic considerations	349	(7)
Foreign and military policy considerations	356	(4)
Arms transfer reporting and transparency	360	(3)
International arms embargoes	363	(3)
Conclusions	366	(2)
Transfers of major conventional weapons to the leading recipients, 1995-99	341	(1)
Shares of new equipment in transfers of major conventional weapons by the seven major suppliers, 1995-99	342	(14)
Examples of supplier competition for sales of aircraft, tanks and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems in 1999	356	(8)
International arms embargoes	364
The trend in transfers of major conventional weapons, 1985-99	340	(28)
The volume of transfers of conventional weapons: by recipients and suppliers, 1995-99	368	(6)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
The recipients of major conventional weapons	368	(4)
The suppliers of major conventional weapons	372	(2)
The volume of transfers of conventional weapons: by regions and other groups of recipients and suppliers, 1990-99	374	(4)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Volume of imports of major conventional weapons	374	(1)
Volume of exports of major conventional weapons	375	(3)
Register of the transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 1999	378	(56)
Bjorn Hagelin
Pieter D. Wezeman
Siemon T. Wezeman
Register of transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 1999, by recipients	378	(54)
Index of suppliers of major conventional weapons and their recipients and licencees, 1999	432	(2)
Sources and methods	434	(1)
The SIPRI sources	434	(1)
Selection criteria	434	(1)
The SIPRI trend--indicator value	435	(1)
Continuity	435	(1)
Government and industry statistics on national arms exports'	436	(7)
Pieter D. Wezeman
Government and industry data on national arms exports, 1994-98	437	(6)
Part III. Non--proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 1999
Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation	443	(66)
Shannon Kile
Introduction	443	(1)
The ABM Treaty and ballistic missile defence	444	(10)
The START treaties	454	(3)
Russian--US cooperative nuclear security activities	457	(6)
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test--Ban Treaty	463	(7)
Negotiations on a Fissile Material Treaty	470	(1)
The NPT Preparatory Committee	471	(3)
The US-North Korean Agreed Framework	474	(1)
Nuclear doctrines	475	(1)
Conclusions	476	(2)
START I aggregate numbers of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and accountable warheads, 1 January 2000	456	(5)
Summary of the principal activities in Russia's `nuclear cities'	461	(17)
Tables of nuclear forces	478	(18)
Robert S. Norris
William M. Arkin
US nuclear forces, January 2000	479	(4)
Russian nuclear forces, January 2000	483	(3)
British nuclear forces, January 2000	486	(1)
French nuclear forces, January 2000	487	(2)
Chinese nuclear forces, January 2000	489	(2)
Indian nuclear forces, January 2000	491	(1)
Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2000	492	(2)
Israeli nuclear forces, January 2000	494	(2)
Nuclear verification: the IAEA strengthened safeguards system	496	(1)
Nicholas Zarimpas
Introduction	496	(1)
Classical safeguards	496	(3)
The need to strengthen safeguards	499	(3)
The evolution of the IAEA strengthened safeguards system	502	(4)
Prospects and concerns	506	(2)
Conclusions	508	(1)
Chemical and biological weapon developments and arms control	509	(68)
Jean Pascal Zanders
Maria Wahlberg
Introduction	509	(1)
Chemical weapon disarmament	510	(10)
Biological weapon disarmament	520	(6)
Proliferation concerns	526	(9)
Conclusions	535	(2)
Risk assesment of terrorism with chemical and biological weapons	537	(1)
Jean Pascal Zanders
Edvard Karlsson
Lena Melin
Erik Naslund
Lennart Thaning
Introduction	537	(1)
Understanding chemical and biological terrorism	538	(2)
Profiles of terrorist organizations with interest in CBW	540	(5)
Sub-state proliferation: the process of acquiring CBW	545	(4)
Assessing the consequences of the release of CBW	549	(9)
Conclusions	558	(2)
Estimated dose-response relation (infection) for inhaled anthrax spores	553
Relative concentration pattern 2 minutes after release	551	(1)
Relative concentration pattern 6 minutes after release	551	(1)
Relative concentration pattern 18 minutes after start and 3 minutes after end of release	552	(1)
Dose-response relationship for anthrax	552	(1)
Number of anthrax spores inhaled and retained in the lungs	553	(3)
Simulation of the plume dispersion in Matsumoto	556	(1)
Probability of injuries as a function of acquired dose (AD) of sarin	556	(4)
The future of chemical and biological weapon disarmament in Iraq: from UNSCOM to UNMOVIC	560	(1)
Maria Wahlberg
Milton Leitenberg
Jean Pascal Zanders
Introduction	560	(1)
Developments in 1999	560	(6)
The legacy of UNSCOM	566	(3)
Summary of the UNSCOM findings	569	(1)
Conclusions	569	(8)
Chemical weapons in Iraq, as of January 1999	570	(2)
Biological weapons in Iraq, as of January 1999	572	(5)
Conventional arms control	577	(70)
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Introduction	577	(2)
Conventional arms control in Europe: the CFE Treaty	579	(10)
The adapted CFE Treaty regime	589	(11)
Regional arms control in Europe	600	(4)
The Open Skies Treaty	604	(1)
Conventional arms control--related endeavours outside Europe	604	(4)
Anti--personnel mines	608	(2)
Conclusions	610	(3)
CFE ceilings and holdings, as of 1 January 1999	578	(1)
Reductions of TLE belonging to naval infantry and coastal defence forces required by the legally binding Soviet pledge of 14 June 1991, as of May 1999	579	(1)
Destruction or conversion of Russian conventional armaments and equipment beyond the Urals to civilian use, valid as of May 1999	580	(10)
National ceilings and sub-ceilings for TLE categories in active units	590	(1)
Territorial ceilings and territorial sub-ceilings for ground TLE categories	591	(1)
National TLE limits under the 1990 CFE Treaty and the 1999 Agreement on Adaptation	592	(1)
CFE Treaty limits and holdings, 1990-99	593	(1)
Russian and Ukrainian entitlements in the former flank zone and the redefined flank zone	593	(16)
The status of the APM Convention, as of 14 March 2000	609	(4)
Confidence- and security-building measures in Europe	613	(1)
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Introduction	613	(1)
Vienna Documents of CSBMs	613	(9)
Regional CSBMs	622	(2)
Conclusions	624	(2)
Notified military activities planned for 2000 and information on additional activities held in 1999	620	(6)
Documents on conventional arms control	626	(21)
Responses to proliferation: the North Korean ballistic missile programme	647	(78)
Ian Anthony
Introduction	647	(2)
The North Korean ballistic missile programme Missiles under development	649	(4)
Responses to North Korea's ballistic missile programme Multilateral political responses--National responses	653	(11)
Conclusions	664	(3)
Multilateral weapon and technology export controls	667	(1)
Ian Anthony
Introduction	667	(1)
The Zangger Committee, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Australia Group	667	(3)
The Missile Technology Control Regime	670	(2)
The Wassenaar Arrangement	672	(8)
Adaptation of the European Union dual-use export control system	680	(4)
Conclusions	684	(4)
Membership of multilateral weapon and technology export control regimes, as of 1 January 2000	668	(20)
The Wassenaar Arrangement 1999 plenary meeting statement	688	(3)
Annexes
Annexe A. Arms control and disarmament agreements	691	(24)
Ragnhild Ferm
Annexe B. Chronology 1999	715	(10)
Ragnhild Ferm
Christer Berggren
About the contributors	725	(6)
Abstracts	731	(6)
Errata	737	(1)
Index	738