Strategic Appraisal United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century

by Khalilzad, Zalmay M.; Shapiro, Jeremy

• ISBN13: 9780833029546
• ISBN10: 0833029541
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2002-06-17
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

This book explores the U.S. Air Force as an instrument of national power and as an institution.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. xiii
Tables	p. xvii
Acknowledgments	p. xix
Abbreviations	p. xxi
Introduction: The Price of Success	p. 1
What Has Stayed the Same	p. 2
What Has Changed	p. 4
Smaller-Scale Contingencies	p. 4
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction	p. 5
Emerging Challenges	p. 6
Emerging Opportunities	p. 8
Getting Past Success	p. 11
The Geopolitical Context for Aerospace Power	p. 13
Forces for What? Geopolitical Context and Air Force Capabilities	p. 15
The Geopolitical Context	p. 15
Evolution of the International System	p. 16
U.S. Goals	p. 29
U.S. Requirements for Military Forces	p. 32
The Maturation of U.S. Aerospace Power: Capabilities of Today's Forces	p. 35
Defeating Enemy Air Attacks	p. 35
Destroying Fixed Targets	p. 35
Destroying Mechanized Ground Forces	p. 37
Information and Its Uses	p. 38
Survivability	p. 39
Implications for U.S. Joint Operations	p. 41
Challenges for the USAF	p. 42
Modernization and Recapitalization	p. 43
Human Capital	p. 44
Conclusion: Creating Options	p. 46
References	p. 46
The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpower	p. 51
The American Way of Coercion	p. 54
A Preference for Multilateralism	p. 55
An Intolerance for Casualties	p. 55
Aversion to Civilian Suffering	p. 56
A Preference for and a Belief in Technological Solutions	p. 57
A Commitment to International Norms	p. 57
Summary	p. 58
Adversary Countercoercive Strategies: A Taxonomy	p. 58
Create Innocent Suffering	p. 60
Shatter Alliances	p. 63
Create Counteralliances	p. 65
Create Actual or Prospective U.S. or Allied Casualties	p. 66
Play Up Nationalism at Home	p. 69
Threaten Use of WMD	p. 71
The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpower	p. 74
References	p. 77
Where Does the Usaf Need to Go?	p. 83
Modernizing the Combat Forces: Near-Term Options	p. 85
Missions	p. 85
Conditions and Constraints	p. 88
Roles of Air and Space Forces	p. 91
Modernization--Key Considerations	p. 94
An Aging Fleet	p. 94
Analytical Approach	p. 96
Force Mix Alternatives	p. 96
Approach	p. 99
Force Mix Recommendations	p. 105
Fighter-Bomber Mix	p. 105
Trades Among Fighters	p. 113
Summary Force Mix Alternatives	p. 117
Cost Sensitivities	p. 119
Impact of Cost Growth in F-22X and F-22E Programs	p. 120
Impact of Cost Growth in JSF Program	p. 120
SSCs and Ongoing Deployments	p. 123
Force Requirements to Support Deployed Aircraft	p. 129
No-Fly and Exclusion Zones	p. 131
Force Structure Requirements for Ongoing Deployments and SSCs	p. 135
Force Structure Implications of SSCs	p. 139
Summary	p. 139
References	p. 141
Space Challenges	p. 143
Current Space Activities	p. 143
The Civil Space Sector	p. 144
The Commercial Space Sector	p. 147
The National Security Space Sector	p. 154
World Players	p. 160
Motivations for Change	p. 162
Bureaucratic and Technological Forcing Functions	p. 162
Threat-Driven Considerations	p. 165
Future Choices	p. 171
Policy	p. 171
Enterprise	p. 174
Organization	p. 175
Ways Ahead	p. 177
References	p. 178
U.S. Military Opportunities: Information-Warfare Concepts of Operation	p. 187
Introduction	p. 187
What Do We Mean by "Information Warfare"?	p. 188
The Importance of Offensive Information Warfare	p. 189
Emerging Asymmetric Strategies	p. 191
Increasing Niche Capabilities	p. 192
Enemy Strategies That Target Key U.S. Vulnerabilities	p. 196
Political Constraints on U.S. Force Deployments	p. 198
Developing Operational Concepts for Future Offensive Information Warfare	p. 200
Information-Based Deterrence	p. 201
Preserving Strategic Reach	p. 206
Counterstrike	p. 210
Counter-C[superscript 4]ISR	p. 215
Comparing the Four CONOPs	p. 219
References	p. 222
Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security Strategy for a New Century	p. 225
Why a Reevaluation of U.S. Nuclear Policy Is Needed, and Why People Should Care	p. 226
The Historical Context: The Legacy, Lessons, and Constraints	p. 229
The Cold War Legacy	p. 229
The Sea Change--The End of the Cold War	p. 235
Why Nukes?	p. 238
And Why Not	p. 240
Where Nuclear Weapons Might Fit	p. 241
Terror Weapons for Traditional Deterrence	p. 242
Counterforce	p. 244
Special Targets	p. 245
Critical Military Situations	p. 246
A Spectrum of Nuclear Options	p. 246
Abolition	p. 247
Aggressive Reductions and "Dealerting"	p. 249
"Business as Usual, Only Smaller"	p. 254
A More-Aggressive Nuclear Posture	p. 255
Nuclear Emphasis	p. 256
Issues Affecting U.S. Choices of a Future Nuclear Strategy	p. 257
Political Sustainability	p. 257
Maintaining a Robust Nuclear Deterrent	p. 257
Preparing for Operational Use of Nuclear Weapons	p. 258
Characteristics of Nuclear Weapon Systems	p. 261
Exploiting Asymmetries	p. 262
Nuclear Proliferation	p. 263
Is "Withering Away" of U.S. Nuclear Capability Inevitable?	p. 264
So, Where Do We Go from Here?	p. 266
Bibliography	p. 274
Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction and Ballistic Missiles	p. 283
WMD Characteristics and Scenarios	p. 284
Background	p. 286
Characteristics of WMD Affecting Their Use	p. 290
WMD Scenarios	p. 295
Implications of These WMD Scenarios	p. 302
Responding to the WMD Threat: Potential Air Force Initiatives	p. 306
Potential Air Force TMD Initiatives	p. 308
TMD Concepts of Operation	p. 310
TMD Effectiveness Analyses	p. 317
Potential Air Force NMD Initiatives	p. 329
Background: The Cold War	p. 330
Post-Cold War Issues	p. 332
NMD Systems Implications	p. 335
Summary	p. 339
Bibliography	p. 341
Supporting Future Forces	p. 343
Providing Adequate Access for Expeditionary Aerospace Forces	p. 345
Overture	p. 345
Access Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow	p. 347
A Troublesome Track Record	p. 347
The Current Context of Military Access	p. 350
Access Options: From "Pure" Strategies to a Portfolio	p. 358
Five "Pure" Strategies	p. 359
Embracing Uncertainty with a Mixed Strategy	p. 365
Building the Portfolio: Eight Recommendations	p. 366
Retain Existing MOBs	p. 367
Build Forward Support Locations	p. 367
Plan for Uncertainty	p. 368
Build AEFs with Flexible Configurations	p. 369
Develop Improved Active and Passive Defenses	p. 370
Expand Contacts with Potential Partners	p. 371
Adjust the Force Mix	p. 371
Explore New Options	p. 372
Summary of Recommendations	p. 373
Concluding Remarks	p. 373
References	p. 374
A Vision for an Evolving Agile Combat Support system	p. 377
ACS Decisions and Their "Trade Space"	p. 378
An Analytic Framework for Strategic ACS Planning	p. 381
Key Findings from ACS Modeling Research	p. 383
Overview of a Global ACS System	p. 389
Strategic and Long-Term Planning for the ACS System	p. 392
References	p. 393
Strategic Sourcing in the Air Force	p. 397
Strategic Sourcing and Supply-Chain Alignment	p. 400
Why Is the Air Force Interested in Outsourcing?	p. 405
Policy Alternatives Relevant to an Air Force Strategic Sourcing Program	p. 408
Outsourcing	p. 408
Privatization	p. 409
Gain Sharing	p. 410
Innovative Contracting	p. 411
Reengineering	p. 412
Summary	p. 412
Pursuing Strategic Sourcing and Supply-Chain Alignment in Competitive Sourcing	p. 412
Eligible Inventory	p. 414
What Activities to Include	p. 417
Best-Value Competition	p. 418
Performance-Based Acquisition	p. 420
Incentives for Continuous Improvement	p. 423
Discussion	p. 425
Looking Beyond Competitive Sourcing	p. 426
Summary	p. 430
References	p. 431
Ready for War But Not for Peace: The Apparent Paradox of Military Preparedness	p. 437
Introduction: The Current Paradox of Readiness	p. 437
Operational Readiness and How It Is Currently Assessed	p. 441
Toward a More-Encompassing Notion of Readiness	p. 445
The Great Misconception About Readiness	p. 449
Estimating Some Current Major Readiness Problems	p. 451
Pilot Training and Flying Hours	p. 452
Maintainer Production and Training	p. 454
Shortages of Parts	p. 457
Reasons for Readiness Problems: Planned and Unplanned	p. 459
Planned Readiness Shortfalls	p. 461
Unplanned Readiness Problems	p. 464
Programmers Versus Operators: Who Should Be in Charge?	p. 471
Managing Readiness: Requirements, Resources, and Processes	p. 474
Conclusion: There Is No Paradox	p. 478
References	p. 481
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.