Strategic Foresight A New Look at Scenarios

by Marcus, Alfred

• ISBN13: 9780230611726
• ISBN10: 0230611729
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2009-06-15
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Summary

Scenario planning is the principles, methods, and techniques for looking forward into the future and trying to anticipate and influence what is to come next. This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The purpose is to shed new light on scenarios and scenario-like thinking in organizations for managers at every level within a company. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.

Author Biography

Alfred Marcus is a Professor in the department of Strategic Management and Organization, Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. 

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
Introduction	p. 1
Turbulent Times	p. 2
What Is Foresight?	p. 4
The Role of Scenarios-Generating and Testing Strategies	p. 5
Thinking about What Comes Next	p. 6
Meeting the Challenges of the Future	p. 9
Weaknesses in Scenario Development	p. 9
Involving Every Person	p. 10
Imagining Sequences of Events	p. 13
Hedging against Uncertainties	p. 14
Gamble on the "Most Probable" Outcome	p. 14
Take the "Robust" Route	p. 16
Delay until Further Clarity Emerges	p. 16
Commit with Fallbacks	p. 18
Shape the Future	p. 19
Risk and Uncertainty	p. 21
Looking at Scenarios in a New Way	p. 22
A Tool for Meeting Challenges	p. 24
Boxed Insert: How the Future Affects Commitments Businesses Make Today?	p. 11
Thinking about the Future	p. 27
Rules for Creating Scenarios	p. 28
Start with the Past	p. 28
Move to the Future	p. 29
Rely on Master Narratives	p. 30
Romances	p. 30
Tragedies	p. 31
Comedies	p. 32
Understand the Journey	p. 34
Clarify the Uncertainties	p. 39
Use Diverse Stories for Decision Making	p. 41
Engage Employees	p. 43
The Challenges Businesses Face	p. 47
What Are the Challenges?	p. 48
How Attractive Are the Options?	p. 52
Repositioning	p. 52
Restructuring	p. 52
Globalization	p. 53
Innovation	p. 53
Does the Organization Have Needed Capabilities?	p. 59
Does the Organization Have Stories about What Might Happen?	p. 60
Can the Organization Identify and Prepare for Surprises?	p. 62
Looking Systematically at the Future	p. 62
Population and Security Challenges	p. 65
Looking for "Sweet Spots"	p. 66
Finding Patterns	p. 66
Finding Drivers	p. 68
Attaching Vivid Names	p. 70
Young and Educated	p. 70
Relative Certainties and Uncertainties	p. 73
Shell's Three Scenarios	p. 73
Weak Signals and Wildcards	p. 76
Irresolution	p. 78
Motors of Change	p. 79
"No Regrets" Strategy-Wal-Mart	p. 79
Old and Feeble	p. 80
Moving and Seeking	p. 82
Young and Militant	p. 82
Understanding Youth Violence	p. 84
Historical Analogies	p. 85
Indicators	p. 87
Empirical Evidence	p. 88
Theory	p. 88
What Businesses Can Do?	p. 92
Tools for Creating Scenarios	p. 93
Boxed Insert: Growth of the Elderly in the World	p. 81
Boxed Insert: Wal-Mart and Best Buy-A Comparison	p. 83
Political and Economic Challenges	p. 95
Reasons to Create Alternative Stories	p. 97
To Understand the Impacts on Industry Structure	p. 97
To Examine the Potential Outcomes of the Moves a Company Can Make	p. 98
From Society to Government	p. 101
The Centrality of Government	p. 104
Government Scenarios	p. 106
Free to Choose	p. 106
Well-Regulated	p. 108
Special Interests	p. 109
Telecoms-An Example of Special Interests	p. 109
Macroeconomic Scenarios	p. 113
Turmoil and Instability (1930-1955)	p. 114
Progress and Crisis (1956-1980)	p. 115
Stable but Slower Growth (1981-2006)	p. 117
Intersecting Stories	p. 119
The Train Wreck	p. 121
Boxed Insert: Strategic Change at Amazon	p. 100
Boxed Insert: Monsanto's Quest	p. 111
Boxed Insert: In and Out of Tune with the Business Cycle	p. 123
Energy and Environmental Challenges	p. 127
An End to the Great Smoothing?	p. 128
Energy Prices	p. 128
Fuel Mix	p. 130
Energy Politics	p. 131
The Drivers of Change	p. 133
Demand for and Supply of Energy	p. 133
War and Global Politics	p. 137
Climate Change	p. 141
Boxed Insert: Overcoming Institutional Constraints in Minnesota	p. 131
Boxed Insert: Hope or Hype at General Motors	p. 138
Boxed Insert: U.S. Carbon Emissions	p. 144
Afterword Technology to the Rescue?	p. 149
Key Differentiators	p. 153
The New Genetics	p. 154
Information Technology	p. 155
Materials Advances	p. 156
Energetics	p. 156
Biomedical Engineering	p. 156
Nanotechnology	p. 157
Empowered by People	p. 157
The Energy Gap	p. 160
The Problem for Companies	p. 161
Innovation versus Management	p. 163
Systems Theory	p. 165
Intersecting Stories of the Future	p. 169
Social, Political, and Economic Indicators: Web Resources	p. 173
Additional Technological Opportunities	p. 175
Notes	p. 179
Further Reading	p. 195
Index	p. 199
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